1992 Election Results if Perot wasn't in and 60% of those votes broke for Bush

[Derek]

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I'm putting this up after I just answered the same question on another forum. If 60% broke for Bush this is how I think it would be based on the percentages of the actual results. However, I really think that 80% of Perot voters would've gone for Bush and he would've been reelected.

[Derek]

I am so sick of republicans putting forth this myth that Perot cost Bush the election. On Oct. 1 when Perot came back in the race the polls stood at Clinton 55% Bush 35% Perot 7%. From the Democratic convention on Clinton consistently led Bush by 20 points, the largest lead got up to 35 points at one time. Get real people Perot took most of his votes from Clinton. Bush was doomed he was not gonna beat Clinton nobody was.

If you believe those numbers

[Derek]

I'm not lying to myself or anyone. Obviously the Perot voters weren't happy with Bush Sr. otherwise they would have voted for him. However, Clinton was not viewed favorably at all by the public. He was seen as slick, smooth, and a double talker. I'm not saying it would be a Bush landslide. The election would've been within a couple points and depended on voter turnout like 2004. Bush Jr. wasn't that popular when he was reelected either and still made it to a second term for what it was worth.

[Derek]

I would pay to receive data on who Perot voters' second choices would have been. It's something I've never seen. I remember him from the mock elections at school when I was little.

[Derek]

That's true. Another thing is what was Bush's approval rating that night?

[Derek]

37% is what he got but there are always ppl in your party that you can rely on to vote for you even if they do not approve because they are not willing to vote for someone in the other party for the presidency.