1992 Election Results if Perot wasn't in and 60% of those votes broke for Bush (user search)
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  1992 Election Results if Perot wasn't in and 60% of those votes broke for Bush (search mode)
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Author Topic: 1992 Election Results if Perot wasn't in and 60% of those votes broke for Bush  (Read 22159 times)
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


« on: April 22, 2010, 10:56:09 PM »

Why do people believe Bush could have even competed in WI considering it was a Dukakis state and effected by the recession? Perot was the only reason it was close.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2010, 02:25:16 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2010, 06:58:11 PM by ShadowOfTheWave »

Gallup is for the most part crap, and most pollsters outside of Rasmussen are biased towards the Dems. However, the polls were all heavily behind Clinton until Perot came back in. Bush typically polled around 35-38%, Clinton around 53-55%. When Perot came back in, Clinton's numbers fell to around to around 40%, while Bush's stayed the same. Perot clearly hurt Clinton far more than Bush.

What people forget is that though the Republicans blamed Perot after the election and had initially tried to downplay his campaign before he dropped out, the Bush campaign wanted him back in to erode Clinton's support, which is exactly what he did. The quote was something like this: 'Perot's candidacy is important if were going to break even with Clinton.' The GOP was ecstatic to have Perot back in the race.

It is believed that Perot cost Bush Ohio, the exit polls indicated it and Bush was ahead there for most of the campaign. Some say Colorado and Montana but I doubt this, since Bush pulled 52 and 53% there respectively in 1988. Clinton was alot more unpopular in the mountain states in 1996 than 1992. Perot almost cost Bush Florida, and probably cost him Georgia, but Clinton was ahead of Bush in New Jersey, New Hampshire and North Carolina. There was no electoral path to victory for Bush without Perot.

And to say that it would have been a 2004 election is absurd. Bush could not have got anywhere above 47%, and even that is a reach. He was not liked by either party and was only elected four years previous because of his predecessor and having one of the worst candidates in political history opposing him. Bush got 41% of Reagan Democrats in 1988, I doubt he could of received 20% against Clinton.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2010, 06:55:40 PM »

I'm not sure where that data is available, all I know is that the reports said that Bush would have one OH in 1992. This is the VA page for 1996, but if you change the state initials at the top you can look at each states results : http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/VAPxp.html

For anyone that doesn't want to look them up I can post them:

AL Dole 53 Clinton 42
AK Dole 51 Clinton 40
AZ Clinton 48 Dole 44
AR Clinton 53 Dole 41
CA Clinton 52 Dole 43
CO Clinton 47 Dole 46
CT Clinton 51 Dole 40
DE Clinton 47 Dole 44
DC Clinton 87 Dole 9
FL Clinton 50 Dole 44
GA Dole 49 Clinton 46
HI Clinton 61 Dole 33
ID Dole 57 Clinton 36
IL Clinton 52 Dole 40
IN Dole 48 Clinton 43
IA Clinton 51 Dole 42
KS Dole 55 Clinton 38
KY Dole 47 Clinton 46
LA Clinton 52 Dole 42
ME Clinton 56 Dole 34
MA Clinton 60 Dole 30
MD Clinton 53 Dole 41
MI Clinton 53 Dole 39
MN Clinton 53 Dole 39
MS Dole 53 Clinton 43
MO Clinton 49 Dole 43
MT Dole 46 Clinton 43
NE Dole 55 Clinton 38
NV Dole 46 Clinton 45
NJ Clinton 53 Dole 38
NH Clinton 52 Dole 42
NM Clinton 49 Dole 43
NY Clinton 60 Dole 32
NC Dole 52 Clinton 44
ND Dole 50 Clinton 43
OH Clinton 48 Dole 46
OK Dole 52 Clinton 41
OR Clinton 52 Dole 42
PA Clinton 52 Dole 42
RI Clinton 64 Dole 27
SC Dole 53 Clinton 42
SD Dole 49 Clinton 45
TN Clinton 49 Dole 44
TX Dole 53 Clinton 43
UT Dole 57 Clinton 35
VT Clinton 58 Dole 33
VA Dole 51 Clinton 45
WA Clinton 55 Dole 39
WV Clinton 52 Dole 40
WI Clinton 50 Dole 41
WY Dole 53 Clinton 39

Some of the results don't make sense considering the actual results, but here's the map:

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