Presidential Results as a percentage of eligible voters, Obama ties Reagan '84

[Tender Branson]

Has anyone ever tried to measure election results as a percentage of eligible voters ?

US data to produce such data is very confuse, because there are so many people who are not eligible, such as non-citizens, prisoners etc.

But I´ll try and calculate it going back to 1980, using the total population of each year, subtract the 17 years and younger folks and the non-citizens.

Subtracting prison population would be complicated because there is insufficent data from 1980-2008. But those prisoners missing are more or less substituted by the Americans voting abroad anyway.

A few statistics to measure non-citizens:

1980 Census: 3.1%
1990 Census: 4.7%
2000 Census: 6.6%
2008 (ACS): 7.1%

(I guess the real number of non-citizens will be closer to 8-9%, but let's wait for the 2010 Census)

http://www.census.gov/population/www/documentation/twps0029/tab11.html
http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/c2kprof00-us.pdf
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&_submenuId=&_lang=en&_ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&ts=

Here is what you get:

2008: 18+ folks: 231 Mio. (-7.1% non-citizens) = 214.6 Mio. voters
2004: 18+ folks: 221 Mio. (-6.9% non-citizens) = 205.8 Mio. voters
2000: 18+ folks: 211 Mio. (-6.6% non-citizens) = 197.1 Mio. voters
1996: 18+ folks: 200 Mio. (-5.8% non-citizens) = 188.4 Mio. voters
1992: 18+ folks: 191 Mio. (-5.1% non-citizens) = 181.3 Mio. voters
1988: 18+ folks: 182 Mio. (-4.3% non-citizens) = 174.2 Mio. voters
1984: 18+ folks: 174 Mio. (-3.7% non-citizens) = 167.6 Mio. voters
1980: 18+ folks: 167 Mio. (-3.1% non-citizens) = 161.8 Mio. voters

Based on these numbers you have the following results for each winner:

2008: Obama => 32.4%
2004: Bush => 30.2%
2000: Gore => 25.9%
1996: Clinton => 25.2%
1992: Clinton => 24.8%
1988: Bush => 28.1%
1984: Reagan => 32.5%
1980: Reagan => 27.1%

If the non-citizen population turns out to be more than 8% on Census Day 2010, Obama could even pass Reagan`s result in his 1984 landslide when measured as a percentage of total eligible US voters ...

[cpeeks]

I am not sure im really following this, what are you trying to say?

[minionofmidas]

I am not sure im really following this, what are you trying to say?

The share of the voting age citizen population to vote for Obama was about the same as voted for Reagan.

[cpeeks]

cant u just look at the percentage of voter turnout and figure that out

[minionofmidas]

cant u just look at the percentage of voter turnout and figure that out

The problem here is that voter turnout in the US is an inexact science, as there is no universal or near-universal registration.

Most media sources use "voting age population" for an approximation, but of course that includes noncitizens - their share has risen since 1984; Reagan won a larger share of the Voting Age Population than Obama. (There is also the issue with the lack of voting rights for convicts and, in a declining number of states, for some classes of ex-convicts.)

[cpeeks]

well theres also more people in 2008 than in 1984

[minionofmidas]

well theres also more people in 2008 than in 1984

Well, of course. That's figured in in either typical VAP turnout calculations or this one, though.

[cpeeks]

ya im just still having a hard time following it like i said it looks like you could just look at the voter turnout