Bellwether Counties

[jimrtex]

The following counties have the longest streak for their state voting with the national winner.  Because of the 2000 election, they are broken into two categories, those that voted with the EV winner, and those that voted with the PV winner.

Alabama
EV since 1984: Butler, Chambers, Coosa, Crenshaw, Etowah, Fayette, Franklin, Marion, Pickens, and Washington.
PV since 1984: Barbour, Chcotaw, and Conecuh.

Arizona
EV since 1968: Navajo.
PV since 1980: Coconimo, Pima, and Santa Cruz

Arkansas
EV since 1960: Logan and Van Buren.
EV since 1964: Madison, Marion, Garland and Washington.
PV since 1972: Craighead

Logan and Van Buren are among the national leaders.

California
EV since 1972: Merced and Stanislaus.
PV since 1972: Sacramento

Colorado
EV since 1980: Alamosa, Clear Creek, Eagle, Gunnison, Mineral, Otero, and Routt.
PV since 1980: Summit

Connecticut
EV (none)
PV since 1972: Windham

Delaware
EV since 1996: Kent and Sussex
PV since 1936: New Castle

New Castle is the national leader in either category.

District of Columbia
EV: (none)
PV since 1992: DC

Florida
EV since 1984: Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Levy, Madison, Okeechobee, Putnam, and Sumter.
PV since 1964: Pasco and Volusia

Georgia
EV since 1984: 37 counties.
PV since 1972: Clayton

[jimrtex]

Hawaii
EV (none)
PV since 1992: Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui.

Idaho
EV since 1992: Benewah, Latah, and Shoshone
PV since 1980: Blaine

Illinois
EV since 1964: Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Marion, Mason, Massac, Moultrie, Shelby, White, and Union.
PV since 1980: Champaign and Peoria.

Indiana
EV since 1956: Vigo.
EV since 1964: Crawford, Gibson, Jefferson, Knox, Posey, Spencer, Starke, and Warrick.
PV since 1980: LaPorte and St Joseph.

Vigo is the national leader (unless Valencia County, NM is).  In 1952, Eisenhower lost by 35 votes in the county.  The previous miss was 1908, when Taft trailed Bryan by 2.1%.

Iowa
EV since 1964: Henry and Van Buren.
PV since 1992: 30 counties (all those carried by Gore, except Winnebago).

Kansas
EV since 1964: Atchison.
PV since 1980: Douglas.

Kentucky
EV since 1964: Lawrence.
PV since 1980: Jefferson.

Louisiana
EV since 1972: Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, Jackson, and Winn.
PV since 1980: Caddo.

Maine
EV since 1980: Lincoln, Penobscot, Waldo, and Washington.
PV since 1972: Kennebec and York.

Maryland
EV since 1996: Dorchester and Kent.
PV since 1980: Baltimore and Howard.

[jimrtex]

Massachusetts
EV (none)
PV since 1980: Plymouth.

Michigan
EV since 1972: Dickinson.
PV since 1964: Ogemaw.

Minnesota
EV since 1964: Cass, Lake of the Woods, and Todd.
PV since 1972: Winona.

Mississippi
EV since 1984: Alcorn, Amite, Chickasaw, Kemper, and Pike.
PV since 1972: Adams.

Missouri
EV since 1960: Lincoln.
EV since 1964: Bates, Kramer, Carroll, Chariton, Crawford, Daviess, Henry, Livingston, Macon, Madison, Ripley, St.Clair, Schuyler, Sullivan, Vernon, and Wayne.
PV since 1964: Clay.

Montana
EV since 1972: Sheridan.
PV since 1992: Big Horn, Deer Lodge, Glacier, Roosevelt, and Silver Bow.

Nebraska
EV since 1992: Saline.
PV (none)

Nevada
EV since 1996: Mineral.
PV since 1972: Clark.

New Hampshire
EV since 1972: Coos.
PV since 1980: Chesire, Grafton, Merrimack, and Strafford.

New Jersey
EV since 1996: Cape May and Ocean.
PV since 1964: Burlington and Gloucester.

[Nym90]

Good list. Please continue posting it...don't take the lack of responses on this thread as an indication of disinterest.

It'll be very interesting to see how these counties go in this election.

[minionofmidas]

Good list. Please continue posting it...don't take the lack of responses on this thread as an indication of disinterest.

What Nym said.

[jimrtex]

New Mexico
EV since 1952: Valencia*.
EV since 1960: Eddy.
PV since 1952: Socorro

In 1981, the western portion of Valencia County was split off to form Cibola County.  The listing here is based on the results for Valencia County as it was constituted at each election (the combined area from 1952-1980; the current area from 1980-2000).  If the county had not split, Dukakis would have carried it in 1988, based on a stronger showing in Cibola County.  It is possible that the current area has a streak since 1952.  The most questionable election would appear to be 1976, where it is possible that Ford may have carried the current county.

The two areas appear to be dramatically different.  The current Valencia County is a subruban growth area south of Albuquerque.  Cibola County stretches to the Arizona line, with its county seat of Grants about 100 miles from Los Lunes, the county seat of Valencia County.  Cibola County includes uranium mining areas as well as Acoma Pueblo.  It has an Indian population of about 40%.  At the time of the split, the two counties had roughly the same population.  The ratio is now about 3:1.

Based on the county as it was constituted at each election, Valencia County is the national leader in going with the electoral vote winner.

Socorro County which is just south of Valencia County has the second longest national streak for going with the winner.

New York
EV since 1980: Chatauqua, Cortland, and Otsego.
PV since 1964: Sullivan.

North Carolina
EV since 1964: Buncombe and Guilford.
PV since 1984: Cumberland and Pasquotank.

North Dakota
EV since 1992: Benson, Divide, Mountrail, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, and Towner.
PV since 1992: Rolette and Sioux.

Ohio
EV since 1964: Hocking, Lawrence, Ottawa, Meigs, Perry, Scioto, and Vinton.
PV since 1972: Portage.

Oklahoma
EV since 1964: Sequoyah.
PV since since 1992: Cherokee, Choctaw, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, and Ottawa.

Oregon
EV since 1980: Clackamas.
PV since 1980: Washington.

Pennsylvania
EV since 1972: Elk.
PV since 1972: Carbon, Luzerne, and Northampton.

Rhode Island
EV (none)
PV since 1992: Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, and Washington.

South Carolina
EV since 1984: Abbeville, Calhoun, Chester, Chesterfield, Colleton, Darlington, Dillon, Georgetown, and Lancaster.
PV since 1968: Richland.

[jimrtex]

South Dakota
EV since 1964: Jerauld.
PV since 1992: Buffalo, Clay, Dewey, Shannon, and Todd.

Tennessee
EV since 1964: Anderson, Carroll, Lawrence, Morgan, and Roane.
PV since 1964: Campbell.

Texas
EV since 1972: Bee, Bexar, Bowie, Harrison, Panola, and Val Verde.
PV since 1992: 24 counties carried by Gore in 2000.

Utah
EV since 1992: Carbon.
PV (none)

Vermont
EV since 1980: Caledonia, Essex, Orange, and Orleans.
PV since 1980: Bennington, Lamoille, Rutland, Washington, and Windsor.

Virginia
EV since 1964: Westmoreland.
PV since 1964: Fredericksburg (independent city)

Washington
EV since 1960: Ferry (tie in 1988)
PV since 1972: Kitsap and Snohomish.

Okanagan County had gone with the national winner every election since 1904, until siding with Dole in 1996.  Apparently relieved from leading the nation, it went for Bush by 34% in 2000.

West Virginia
EV since 1964: Cabell, Lewis, Monroe, Pleasants, and Roane.
PV since 1992: 13 counties carried by Gore.

Wisconsin
EV since 1964: Juneau, Oconto, and Sawyer.
PV since 1980: Grant, Green, Lafayette, and Sauk.

Wyoming
EV since 1972: Sweetwater.
PV (none)

[jimrtex]

USA EV
Since 1952: Valencia, NM (see New Mexico note)
Since 1956: Vigo, IN
Since 1960: Logan, AR; Van Buren, AR; Lincoln, MO; Eddy, NM; and Ferry, WA (tied in 1988).
Since 1964 (71 counties): AR(4), IL(11), IN(, IA(2), KS(1), KY(1), MN(3), MO(16), NC(2), OH(7), OK(1), SD(1), TN(5), VA(1), WV(5), and WI(3).

USA PV
Since 1936: New Castle, DE
Since 1952: Socorro, NM
Since 1964: Pasco, FL; Volusia, FL; Ogemaw, MI; Clay, MO; Burlington, NJ; Gloucester, NJ; Sullivan, NY; Campbell, TN; and Fredericksburg city, VA.

[jimrtex]

Nixon Won PV in 1960
A reasonable argument can be made that Nixon won the popular vote in 1960.  The Democrat elector candidates were chosen in a primary where voters were allowed to vote for 11 individual candidates.  After a runoff and a recount, 6 free candidates were chosen, as well as 5 loyalist candidates.  At the general election, voters could again vote for 11 individuals, and all 11 Democrat electors were elected, with little variation in their support.  When the electors voted, they split 6 for Senator Harry Byrd, and 5 for Senator John Kennedy.

Accounts that give Kennedy a 112,000 national popular vote victory are based on counting the Democrat votes in Alabama for Kennedy.  But clearly, some Alabamians were not voting for JFK.  One reckoning would attribute 6/11 of each Democrat vote to Byrd, reducing JFK's Alabama and national totals by 174 thousand, more than enough to put Nixon in the popular vote lead (Nixon was never really close in the EV race.  Winning Illinois would have still left him 27 EV short (2 or 3 other states).

Support for this allocation can be found in neighboring Mississippi where competing Democratic slates ran, with the unpledged slate achieving a 3% victory over tbe loyalist slate.

If Nixon won the PV, then this changes the results for our PV bellwether.  Gone would be New Castle, DE and Socorro, NM whose voto for Kennedy would have been for the PV loser.  But the 9 counties that voted for Nixon, and every PV winner since then would get a second chance.  By this method the winners are:

Since 1928: Pasco, FL; and Volusia, FL.

Since 1928? Fredericksburg city, VA (the Atlas's results are continuous back to 1940, with the city going for the PV winner in every election since.  Surely, FDR would have carried the city in 1932 and 1936.  Since Hoover carried the state in 1928 by 8%, it is quite possible that he carried the city as well.

Since 1952: Ogemaw, MI; Burlington, NJ; Gloucester, NJ; Sullivan, NY; and Campbell, TN.

Sullivan County is the site of Woodstock.

Since 1960, Clay, MO.

Gore carried Clay County by 1 vote of 80,000 in 2000.

[jimrtex]

This is an update based on the 2004 election.  Counties that had their streak broken in 2004 are striked through.  Overall, this was a challenging election for PV streaks, since there were relatively few counties switching from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004.

The following counties have the longest streak for their state voting with the national winner.  Because of the 2000 election, they are broken into two categories, those that voted with the EV winner, and those that voted with the PV winner.

Alabama
EV since 1984: Butler, Chambers, Coosa, Crenshaw, Etowah, Fayette, Franklin, Marion, Pickens, and Washington.
PV since 1984: Barbour, Choctaw, and Conecuh.

Arizona
EV since 1968: Navajo.
PV since 1980: Coconimo, Pima, and Santa Cruz
PV since 2004: The 11 counties carried by Bush.

Arkansas
EV since 1960: Logan and Van Buren.
EV since 1964: Madison, Marion, Garland and Washington.
PV since 1972: Craighead

Logan and Van Buren are among the national leaders.

California
EV since 1972: Merced and Stanislaus.
PV since 1972: Sacramento
PV since 2004: The 36 counties carried by Bush.

edited 11/8/2004 - Kerry wins Mono.

Colorado
EV since 1980: Alamosa, Clear Creek, Eagle, Gunnison, Mineral, and Otero, and Routt.
PV since 1980: Summit
PV since 1992: Huerfano

Connecticut
EV (none)
EV since 2004: Litchfield
PV since 1972: Windham
PV since 1992: Litchfield

Delaware
EV since 1996: Kent and Sussex.
PV since 1936: New Castle
PV since 2004: Kent and Sussex.

New Castle is the national leader in either category.  After going with the popular vote winner for the previous 17 elections, New Castle went with Kerry by 21%.

District of Columbia
EV: (none)
PV since 1992: DC
PV: (none)

Florida
EV since 1984: Dixie, Gilchrist, Glades, Hamilton, Levy, Madison, Okeechobee, Putnam, and Sumter.
PV since 1964: Pasco and Volusia

Kerry carried Volusia by 3%.  If Nixon is considered to have won the popular vote in 1960, Volusia had been with the PV winner since 1928.  Pasco continues its own streak from 1928.

Georgia
EV since 1984: Atkinson, Baldwin, Ben Hill, Berrien, Butts, Chattooga, Cook, Crisp, Decatur, Dodge, Early, Elbert, Emanuel, Grady, Hart, Heard, Irwin, Jasper, Jenkins, Johnson, Lanier, Long, Miller, Monroe, Montgomery, Polk, Putnam, Schley, Screven, Seminole, Sumter, Thomas, Turner, Treutlen, Wheeler, Wilcox, and Wilkes.
PV since 1972: Clayton
PV since 1984: Burke, Chattahoochee, and Meriwether.

Clayton missed this year by a mere 43%.

[Alcon]

Thanks for updating this list.

By the way, it wasn't actually a tie in Mono County, CA. Kerry won it by 7 per a recount.

[jimrtex]

More updates for 2004.

Hawaii
EV (none)
PV since 1992: Hawaii, Honolulu, Kauai, and Maui.
PV (none)

Idaho
EV since 1992: Latah, Nez Perce, and Shoshone
PV since 1980: Blaine
PV since 2004: 43 counties carried by Bush (all but Blaine).

A previous version erroneously listed Benewah rather than Nez Perce.

Illinois
EV since 1964: Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Marion, Mason, Massac, Moultrie, Shelby, White, and Union.
PV since 1980: Champaign and Peoria.
PV since 1992: Franklin, Gallatin, Henry, La Salle, Macon, Macoupin, Perry, and Pulaski.

Bush missed carrying Peoria County by 94 votes (0.11%).

Indiana
EV since 1956: Vigo.
EV since 1964: Crawford, Gibson, Jefferson, Knox, Posey, Spencer, Starke, and Warrick.
PV since 1980: LaPorte and St Joseph.

Vigo is the national leader (unless Valencia County, NM is).  In 1952, Eisenhower lost by 35 votes in the county.  The previous miss was 1908, when Taft trailed Bryan by 2.1%.

Iowa
EV since 1964: Henry and Van Buren.
PV since 1992: 30 counties (all those carried by Gore, except Winnebago).Cedar, Greene, and Louisa. (the three 2000 Gore counties that switched to Bush in 2004).

Kansas
EV since 1964: Atchison.
PV since 1980: Douglas.
PV since 2004: 103 counties carried by Bush (all but Douglas and Wyandotte).

Kentucky
EV since 1964: Lawrence.
PV since 1980: Jefferson.
PV since 1984: Franklin.

Louisiana
EV since 1972: Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, Jackson, and Winn.
PV since 1980: Caddo.

Maine
EV since 1980: Lincoln, Penobscot, Waldo, and Washington.
PV since 1972: Kennebec and York.
PV since 2004: Piscataquis and Washington.

Maryland
EV since 1996: Dorchester and Kent.
PV since 1980: Baltimore and Howard.
PV since 1996: Somerset.

[jimrtex]

Massachusetts
EV (none)
PV since 1980: Plymouth.
PV (none)

Michigan
EV since 1972: Dickinson.
PV since 1964: Ogemaw.

Minnesota
EV since 1964: Cass, Lake of the Woods, and Todd.
PV since 1972: Winona.
PV since 1992: Aitkin and Lincoln.

Mississippi
EV since 1984: Alcorn, Amite, Chickasaw, Jasper, and Pike.
PV since 1972: Adams.
PV since 1984: Panola and Yalobusha.

Note: In previous version, Kemper was erroneously listed in place of Jasper.  But in any event, Japser went for Kerry in 2004.

Missouri
EV since 1960: Lincoln.
EV since 1964: Bates, Kramer, Carroll, Chariton, Crawford, Daviess, Henry, Livingston, Macon, Madison, Ripley, St.Clair, Schuyler, Sullivan, Vernon, and Wayne.
PV since 1964: Clay.

Montana
EV since 1972: Sheridan.
PV since 1992: Big Horn, Deer Lodge, Glacier, Roosevelt, and Silver Bow.
PV since 2004: 50 counties carried by Bush.

Nebraska
EV since 1992: Saline.
PV (none)
PV since 2004: 92 counties carried by Bush (all but Thurston).

Nevada
EV since 1996: Mineral.
PV since 1972: Clark.
PV since 2004: 16 counties carried by Bush (all but Clark).

New Hampshire
EV since 1972: Coos.
EV since 1996: Hillsborough and Rockingham.
PV since 1980: Chesire, Grafton, Merrimack, and Strafford.
PV since 2004: Belknap, Carroll, Hillsborough, and Rockingham.

New Jersey
EV since 1996: Cape May and Ocean.
PV since 1964: Burlington and Gloucester.
PV since 1996: Monmouth and Salem.

[jimrtex]

New Mexico
EV since 1952: Valencia*.
EV since 1960: Eddy.
PV since 1952: Socorro
PV since 1992: Colfax.

In 1981, the western portion of Valencia County was split off to form Cibola County.  The listing here is based on the results for Valencia County as it was constituted at each election (the combined area from 1952-1980; the current area from 1980-2004).  If the county had not split, Dukakis would have carried it in 1988, based on a stronger showing in Cibola County.  It is possible that the current area has a streak since 1952.  The most questionable election would appear to be 1976, where it is possible that Ford may have carried the current county.

The two areas appear to be dramatically different.  The current Valencia County is a subruban growth area south of Albuquerque.  Cibola County stretches to the Arizona line, with its county seat of Grants about 100 miles from Los Lunes, the county seat of Valencia County.  Cibola County includes uranium mining areas as well as Acoma Pueblo.  It has an Indian population of about 40%.  At the time of the split, the two counties had roughly the same population.  The ratio is now about 3:1.

Based on the county as it was constituted at each election, Valencia County is the national leader in going with the electoral vote winner.

Socorro County which is just south of Valencia County has the second longest national streak for going with the popular vote winner.  A previous version erroneously had Socorro County continuing its streak.

New York
EV since 1980: Chatauqua, Cortland, and Otsego.
PV since 1964: Sullivan.

Woodstock was held in Sullivan County.

North Carolina
EV since 1964: Buncombe and Guilford.
PV since 1984: Cumberland and Pasquotank.

North Dakota
EV since 1992: Benson, Divide, Mountrail, Ransom, Sargent, Steele, and Towner.
PV since 1992: Rolette and Sioux.
PV since 2004: 49 counties for Bush (all but Benson, Rolette, Sioux, and Steele).

Ohio
EV since 1964: Hocking, Lawrence, Ottawa, Meigs, Perry, Scioto, and Vinton.
PV since 1972: Portage.
PV since 1980: Clark.

Clark County was the target of Operation Clark County by the British newspaper The Guardian.  It was the only Ohio county to switch from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004.

Oklahoma
EV since 1964: Sequoyah.
PV since since 1992: Cherokee, Choctaw, Haskell, Hughes, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okmulgee, and Ottawa.

Oregon
EV since 1980: Clackamas.
PV since 1980: Washington.
PV since 2004: 28 counties for Bush.

Pennsylvania
EV since 1972: Elk.
PV since 1972: Carbon, Luzerne, and Northampton.

Edited to correct PV to Carbon County.

Rhode Island
EV (none)
PV since 1992: Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, and Washington.
PV (none)

South Carolina
EV since 1984: Abbeville, Calhoun, Chesterfield, Colleton, Darlington, Georgetown, and Lancaster.
PV since 1968: Richland.
PV since 1984: Chester.

In the previous version, Chester had been erroneously listed among the EV bellwethers.  It was carried by Gore in 2000, and by Bush (29 votes in 2004).  In a previous version, Dillon was erroneously included among the EV leaders.  It had been carried by Gore in 2000, and was carried by Kerry in 2004.

[jimrtex]

South Dakota
EV since 1964: Jerauld.
PV since 1992: Buffalo, Clay, Dewey, Shannon, and Todd.
PV since 2004: 57 counties for Bush.

Tennessee
EV since 1964: Anderson, Carroll, Lawrence, Morgan, and Roane.
PV since 1964: Campbell.

Texas
EV since 1972: Bee, Bexar, Bowie, Harrison, Panola, and Val Verde.
PV since 1992: 24 counties carried by Gore in 2000.Cameron, Culberson, Frio, Morris, Newton, Reeves, and Roberston (i.e. the 7 among the 24 that switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004.)

Utah
EV since 1992: Carbon.
PV (none)
PV since 2004: 29 counties for Bush (all counties in Utah).

Vermont
EV since 1980: Caledonia, Essex, Orange, and Orleans.
PV since 1980: Bennington, Lamoille, Rutland, Washington, and Windsor.
PV since 2004: Essex.

Virginia
EV since 1964: Westmoreland.
PV since 1964: Fredericksburg (independent city)
PV since 1984: Southampton and Suffolk (independent city).

Washington
EV since 1960: Ferry (tie in 1988)
PV since 1972: Kitsap and Snohomish.
PV since 2004: 27 counties carried by Bush.

Okanagan County had gone with the national winner every election since 1904, until siding with Dole in 1996.  Apparently relieved from leading the nation, it went for Bush by 34% in 2000.  In 2004, Kerry reduced this to a 20% Bush margin.

West Virginia
EV since 1964: Cabell, Lewis, Monroe, Pleasants, and Roane.
PV since 1992: 13 counties carried by Gore.Harrison, Kanawha, Lincoln, and Wyoming.  (i.e. the 4 among the 13 that switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004).

Wisconsin
EV since 1964: Juneau, Oconto, and Sawyer.
PV since 1980: Columbia, Grant, Green, Lafayette, and Sauk.

Columbia was erroneously omitted from the previous version.  It was the only one of the 5 to switch from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004.

Wyoming
EV since 1972: Sweetwater.
PV (none)
PV since 2004: 22 counties for Bush (all but Teton)

[minionofmidas]

Pennsylvania
EV since 1972: Elk.
PV since 1972: Carbon, Luzerne, and Northampton.

I think it should read
PV since 1972: Carbon, Luzerne, and Northampton.

[jimrtex]

USA EV
Since 1952: Valencia, NM (see New Mexico note)
Since 1956: Vigo, IN
Since 1960: Logan, AR; Van Buren, AR; Lincoln, MO; Eddy, NM; and Ferry, WA (tied in 1988).
Since 1964 (7170 counties): AR(4), IL(11), IN(, IA(2), KS(1), KY(1), MN(3), MO(16), NC(21), OH(7), OK(1), SD(1), TN(5), VA(1), WV(5), and WI(3).

The only dropout was Guilford County, North Carolina

Valencia County, NM is a suburban area south of Albuquerque.
Vigo County, IN is the home of Terre Haute and Eugene V Debs, perennial Socialist presidential candidate in the early 20th century.
Logan County, AR and Van Buren County, AR are on the southeastern edge of the Ozarks towards the central part of the state.
Lincoln County, MO is becoming a far northern suburb of St.Louis pulling it away from the traditionally Democrat leanings of the Little Dixie area.
Eddy County, NM is in the southeastern corner of the state and is home of Carlsbad Caverns.
Ferry County, WA is in the northeastern part of the state.  Much of its southern and eastern boundary is formed by Lake Roosevelt which is formed by Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River.

USA PV
Since 1936: New Castle, DE
Since 1952: Socorro, NM
Since 1964: Pasco, FL; Volusia, FL; Ogemaw, MI; Clay, MO; Burlington, NJ; Gloucester, NJ; Sullivan, NY; and Campbell, TN; and Fredericksburg city, VA
Since 1972: Flagler, FL; Hernando, FL; Monroe, MI; Jefferson, MO; and Carbon, PA.
Since 1980: Pinellas, FL; St Joseph, IN; Caddo, LA; Alpena, MI; Calhoun, MI; Clare, MI; Iosco, MI; Manistee, MI; Roscommon, MI; Rockland, NY; Seneca, NY; Clark, OH; and Columbia, WI.
Since 1984: 27 counties: AL(3), AR(6), GA(3), IN(1), KY(1), MS(2), NC(1), SC(1), TN(7), and VA(2).

The 1972, 1980, and 1984 entries were added since the previous version, so there are no misses indicated.  A previous version had listed Socorro as continuing its streak

Pasco County, FL is a suburban area north of Tampa.
Ogemah County, MI is in the northern part of the Lower Peninsula, about at the second knuckle of the index finger.
Clay County, MO is a suburban area north across the Missouri River from Kansas City, MO.
Sullivan County, NY is on the southern flanks of the Catskills and was the site of Woodstock.
Campbell County, TN is on the Kentucky line, just west of the western tip of Virginia, north of Oak Ridge and Knoxville.  It was the easternmost Gore county in Tennessee in 2000.

[jimrtex]

I think it should read
PV since 1972: Carbon, Luzerne, and Northampton.

You are correct.

[jimrtex]

Nixon Won PV in 1960
A reasonable argument can be made that Nixon won the popular vote in 1960.  The Democrat elector candidates were chosen in a primary where voters were allowed to vote for 11 individual candidates.  After a runoff and a recount, 6 free candidates were chosen, as well as 5 loyalist candidates.  At the general election, voters could again vote for 11 individuals, and all 11 Democrat electors were elected, with little variation in their support.  When the electors voted, they split 6 for Senator Harry Byrd, and 5 for Senator John Kennedy.

Accounts that give Kennedy a 112,000 national popular vote victory are based on counting the Democrat votes in Alabama for Kennedy.  But clearly, some Alabamians were not voting for JFK.  One reckoning would attribute 6/11 of each Democrat vote to Byrd, reducing JFK's Alabama and national totals by 174 thousand, more than enough to put Nixon in the popular vote lead (Nixon was never really close in the EV race.  Winning Illinois would have still left him 27 EV short (2 or 3 other states).

Support for this allocation can be found in neighboring Mississippi where competing Democratic slates ran, with the unpledged slate achieving a 3% victory over tbe loyalist slate.

If Nixon won the PV, then this changes the results for our PV bellwether.  Gone would be New Castle, DE and Socorro, NM whose vote for Kennedy would have been for the PV loser.  But the 9 counties that voted for Nixon, and every PV winner since then would get a second chance.   Both New Castle, DE and Socorro, NM voted for Kerry in 2004, so to them it doesn't matter who won in 1960.  In addition, 4 of the 9 counties whose streak began in 1964 if JFK won the popular vote in 1960, voted for Kerry in 2004.  This leaves us with 5 counties whose streak began in 1960 or earlier if Nixon won the 1960 PV.

By this method the winners are:

Since 1928: Pasco, FL; and Volusia, FL.

Since 1928? Fredericksburg city, VA (the Atlas's results are continuous back to 1940, with the city going for the PV winner in every election since.  Surely, FDR would have carried the city in 1932 and 1936.  Since Hoover carried the state in 1928 by 8%, it is quite possible that he carried the city as well.

It doesn't matter now.  Kerry carried Fredericksburg.

Since 1952: Ogemaw, MI; Burlington, NJ; Gloucester, NJ; Sullivan, NY; and Campbell, TN.

Sullivan County is the site of Woodstock.

Since 1960, Clay, MO.

Gore carried Clay County by 1 vote of 80,000 in 2000.

Even if Kennedy won the PV in 1960, Pasco, FL; Ogemaw, MI; Clay, Missouri; Sullivan, NY; and Campbell, TN are tied for second first place for most elections voting with the PV winner.

[minionofmidas]

Anti-Bellwether Counties
Counties that have not been won by the national winner for the longest period of time.
EV since 1992: Orange FL and Charles MD
EV since 1996: no counties
EV since 2000: all the counties won by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
No change to first place from pre-election.

PV since 1992: Marion IN, Albemarle VA, Fairfax VA, Alpine CA, Mono CA, and Danville and Fairfax cities, VA; and San Juan CO which went for Ross Perot in 1992.
PV since 1996: La Plata CO
PV since 2000: the 55 counties that voted Clinton in 96, Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.
Pre-election, this list would have shown all the counties won by Republicans through 92-00 in first place.

[jimrtex]

Big Bellwethers
These counties had more than 100,000 total votes in 2000.

EV Leaders
Since 1964: Buncombe, NC (Asheville).
Since 1972: Stanislaus, CA (Modesto); and Bexar, TX (San Antonio).
Since 1980: San Bernadino, CA (San Bernadino); San Joaquin, CA (Stockton); Ventura, CA (Los Angeles suburb); Clackamas, OR (Portland suburb); Will, IL (Chicago suburb); Winnebago, IL (Rockford); Spokane, WA (Spokane).

PV Leaders
Since 1964: Pasco. FL (Tampa suburb).
Since 1980: Pinellas, FL (St Petersburg); St Joseph, IN (South Bend); Caddo, LA (Shreveport); Rockland, NY (New York suburb).

If Nixon is considered to have won the PV in 1960, then Pasco County's streak began in 1928, when the turnout was 2,932.  In 2004, the turnout was 190,866, a 65-fold increase.

Correction - 11/18/2004 Replace DuPage, IL with Will, IL.

[rbt48]

Terrific research by jimrtex.  I applaud your efforts.

Personally, I would advocate not bothering to track the popular vote for this exercise.  The PV is a beauty contest and the winner doesn't get a $50,000 scholarship. 

In reality, the PV is fictitious in that there is not a nationwide standard for a popular vote.  An eligible voter in state A might be ineligible in state B.  Candidate C in one state might not be on the ballot in another state.  The nationwide PV is analogous to all the bushels of fruit grown in all the states.  There might be lots of peaches from Georgia and South Carolina, lots of apples from New York and Washington, many oranges from California and Florida, but the grand total doesn't portray a precisely meaningful message.

[jimrtex]

Personally, I would advocate not bothering to track the popular vote for this exercise.

I made my original list just before the 2000 election, and did not consider whether or not Nixon had won the 1960 PV.  As the 2000 election results unfolded, I ended up with two versions of the list.  Originally, the two lists were "if Gore wins the election" and "if Bush wins the election".  Only later did they become "Bush won the EV" and "Gore won the PV".

Since, I had the two lists, I kept them.  Longer term, it may make little difference.  Counties that voted for Gore in 2000, still had to switch to Bush in 2004, to continue their streak.  Nationally, there might only be around 100 counties that made that switch.  It is truly remarkable of the 11 counties that had voted with the PV winner since the 1960s or earlier, more than half (6) did switch to Bush.

I had just recently came across the tidbit that Nixon may have won the 1960 PV, and decided to consider what effect that would have on my PV list.

Looking to the future, it will be relatively meaningless that some counties went with the EV winner in 2000 and 2004.  This simply means they voted Republican both times.  The next Democrat win will stop the streak for large numbers of them, unless it is an election like 1964.

[minionofmidas]

About a hundred and sixty counties, actually.

[jimrtex]

Some corrections:

Kerry carried Socorro County, NM which would have been the national bellwether based on Popular Vote, voting with the winner every election since 1952.  The national leaders are now 5 counties that voted with the PV winner every year since 1964 (voting Democrat in 1976, 1992, 1996, and 2000, but in particular switching back Republican in 1980 and 2004.

Idaho: Nez Perce rather than Benewah should have been with the EV winners.

South Carolina: Dillon should not have been listed as an EV leader, since Gore carried it in 2000 (and Kerry carried it in 2004)