Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.
What? Toomey wasn't the incumbent. Bush, Santorum and the entire GOP establishment backed Specter up to the max and Specter still only got 51% of the vote in a primary. To say he couldn't win the primary because he was too conservative. No. He couldn't win the 2004 primary because he faced a long term incumbent with very high establishment backing. You are using some pretty flawed logic there.
You know little about Pennsylvania. For one there are a lot of Democrats out West that are finished with Specter and have been for some time and will thus pull the lever for Toomey. Keep in mind that their is still a GOP primary between Toomey and Luksik who is ever further to the right. This has actually allowed Toomey to move to center somewhat since its a none competative primary but Toomey still has someone on his right making him look a little less right wing. Also this environment is different from 2004 and provides Toomey with a much better chance. Also Corbett will be winning a big landslide for Governor which helps Toomey by boasting Republican and western turnout.
