Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.
Yeah, except for the fact that just about every other poll besides this one shows Toomey with a pretty decent lead over Specter.
Oh, and when Toomey ran against Specter in 2004, the margin of Specter's victory was only slightly over 1%.
I used to live in Pennsylvania and I assure you, Toomey can very much win this race and likely will.