PA/Quinnipiac: Specter comes back to life

[The Mikado]

Toomey lost 2004 GOP primary because he was too conservative, even for republicans. He won't win the race. If he lost a Republican primary to specter, he won't be able to win independent and D vote.

But there are a lot of Dems and Indies that don't particularly feel like pulling Arlen's bacon out of the fire.  He's not exactly a beloved figure by any stretch of the imagination, and I could totally see the disheartened Dem vote sitting on their hands and not voting this year.  (Of course, Arlen Specter is the ultimate survivor, so I'm not counting him out by any means)

[The Mikado]

A former president of the club for growth won't win a election in any democrat state. And Pennsylvania voted for the D's candidate for president in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.

Stop tempting fate.  Toomey will likely win as it is...pretending Specter's a shoo-in ignores his very real vulnerability.  Given that most of the electorate, right and left, view him as an opportunistic phony and, as Mr. Moderate pointed out, Dem turnout will be suppressed by an uncompetitive governor's race, Specter's in the race of his career.  Not even Arlen Specter could invent up a magic bullet better designed for ending his career.