1896: McKinley vs. Grover Cleveland

[Bo]

No third party candidates. Everything else stays the same.

McKinley/Hobart-370 EV
Cleveland/Stevenson-77 EV

[Bo]

So Cleveland is running for a third term?

Yes.

[Bo]

262-185

I said everything else would stay the same. There's no way Cleveland wins with 15% unemployment.

[Bo]

262-185

I said everything else would stay the same. There's no way Cleveland wins with 15% unemployment.

He does according to my map.

How come? Cleveland was so unpopular in 1896 in RL that his own party refused to renominate him or even nominate someone with like-minded views. McKinley would easily crush Cleveland.

[Bo]

262-185

I said everything else would stay the same. There's no way Cleveland wins with 15% unemployment.

He does according to my map.

How come? Cleveland was so unpopular in 1896 in RL that his own party refused to renominate him or even nominate someone with like-minded views. McKinley would easily crush Cleveland.

Cleveland refused to run; he wasn't that unpopular.

If he wasn't unpopular, the Dems would have nominated someone who supported the gold standard and not the silver standard. BTW, even though approval rating polls didn't exist back then, it isn't hard to tell that Cleveland would have become unpopular since unemployment was 3% in 1892 and 15% in 1896.

[Bo]

262-185

I said everything else would stay the same. There's no way Cleveland wins with 15% unemployment.

He does according to my map.

How come? Cleveland was so unpopular in 1896 in RL that his own party refused to renominate him or even nominate someone with like-minded views. McKinley would easily crush Cleveland.

Cleveland refused to run; he wasn't that unpopular.

If he wasn't unpopular, the Dems would have nominated someone who supported the gold standard and not the silver standard. BTW, even though approval rating polls didn't exist back then, it isn't hard to tell that Cleveland would have become unpopular since unemployment was 3% in 1892 and 15% in 1896.

Uh, no. The Dems had had internal strife between the two wings for years. When Cleveland refused to run, the Silverites managed to seize control of the party for that year.

Still, any President under whom unemployment increases by 12% will lose a lot of his popularity.

[Bo]

The whole scenario is illogical.  Had Cleveland or any other Gold Democrat gotten the Democratic nomination in 1896, then the Populists would certainly have run a candidate of their own on a platform of Free Silver.

All right. Draw a three-way map then.

[Bo]

The whole scenario is illogical.  Had Cleveland or any other Gold Democrat gotten the Democratic nomination in 1896, then the Populists would certainly have run a candidate of their own on a platform of Free Silver.

All right. Draw a three-way map then.

McKinley (R):282
Cleveland (D): 91
Bryan (P): 74

I think McKinley would win much more Western states since Cleveland and Bryan will split the vote that Bryan got there in RL and thus McKinley would win in many of them due to the divided Democratic vote. McKinley even won OR, ND, and almost SD when the Democrats were united in 1896 in RL. I agree that McKinley would win, though. Also, I think McKinley would easily win KY since he won it against Bryan in RL and possibly several other Southern states. Finally, how do you make a three way map of 1896 when there are only 2 colors available for that year?