New York, 1928

[Bo]

How come it was so close in 1928, when Republicans previously won it in landslides. I'm guessing because Al Smith was Governor there and a lot of Catholics and immigrants (who typically voted Republican) got really energized and voted for Smith instead.

[Cubby]

In NYC in 1920, the Irish were mad at Wilson (and by extension the Democrats) for helping the UK during the War. The Germans were mad too (although there were far less Germans proportionally than in Midwestern cities). This was part of the reason for Harding's landslide. In 1924 the non-GOP vote was split, and Davis was a terrible candidate. By 1928 ethnic anger at the Dems had subsided, and the party itself was more united.

[12th Doctor]

The last Presidential election in which the forces of segregation (think anti-Catholicism, anti-Judaism, et al) were a significant force in either party (in this case the Democrats) was the election of 1924.  After that began the long decline of segregation as a serious political force.  That is not to say that it still wasn't present, but it no longer had the force to sway the electoral discussion that it once did.

People misinterpret the events of political elections following WWII.  The political ideas that went along with segregation were in steep decline through that period.  Hence why they went rouge so many times.  That's something you do out of desperation, not because you are powerful.  The Democrats proved that they didn't need the politics of segregation to carry an election, and the Republicans never did.

Of course, these leads to talks about "The Southern Strategy" and how the Republicans supposedly coopted the politics of the Old South in the 1970's (and supposedly this became a lock with Reagan).  Serious analysis no longer supports this urban legend.  The fact is that vast areas of the South changed, both socially and economically.  There was nothing particularly socially conservative about the South prior to the 1970's, except on issues of race.  The South, for instance, had the most liberal abortion laws in the country, prior to Roe vs Wade.  And the South was probably the most economically liberal region of the country, due to the deep poverty that existed there prior to the emergence of the New South.  That economic resentment fed into the racial resentment that held up segregation.  One that changed, the nature of the South changed.  Plus, many Northerners moved into the South, to follow the new economy.

In many places, the social order of the Old South simple fell apart.  You want to know what happened to it, look at the counties in the upper south that still held their allegiance to the Democrats until a black man ran on the ticket.

There is no "shift".  It died with a whimper.  And that process started in 1928.

[12th Doctor]

If the Southern Strategy were real, it was the worst idea ever, because it only wins the Republicans about 30 EV's, if that.

As hard as it is for people to believe, the origin of State's Rights in the Republican Party really does come out of a totally different tradition from how that term was applied by the KKK.  It comes primarily from the Robert Taft wing of the party that emerged in the late 40's.  Taft, and his followers, were extremely anti-racist, but opposed to federal power.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In NYC in 1920, the Irish were mad at Wilson (and by extension the Democrats) for helping the UK during the War. The Germans were mad too (although there were far less Germans proportionally than in Midwestern cities). This was part of the reason for Harding's landslide. In 1924 the non-GOP vote was split, and Davis was a terrible candidate. By 1928 ethnic anger at the Dems had subsided, and the party itself was more united.

It really shows the power machine politics had over the urban Irish vote then...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In NYC in 1920, the Irish were mad at Wilson (and by extension the Democrats) for helping the UK during the War. The Germans were mad too (although there were far less Germans proportionally than in Midwestern cities). This was part of the reason for Harding's landslide. In 1924 the non-GOP vote was split, and Davis was a terrible candidate. By 1928 ethnic anger at the Dems had subsided, and the party itself was more united.

It really shows the power machine politics had over the urban Irish vote then...

The Irish were the bedrock of urban machine politics in most American cities until the 1930s.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Smith did better throughout the Northeast compared to previous Democrats.

[true liberty]

In NYC in 1920, the Irish were mad at Wilson (and by extension the Democrats) for helping the UK during the War. The Germans were mad too (although there were far less Germans proportionally than in Midwestern cities). This was part of the reason for Harding's landslide. In 1924 the non-GOP vote was split, and Davis was a terrible candidate. By 1928 ethnic anger at the Dems had subsided, and the party itself was more united.

this seems to be the best and most realistic explanation to me.