Bobby vs. Nixon 1968

[hawkeye59]

What do you think would happen? Here's my map:

RFK: 285 43.41
Nixon: 207 43.41
Wallace: 46 12.85

[hawkeye59]

Swing Missouri and New Jersey for sure. Kennedy would have won over more ethnic catholics and blue collar whites. He simply appealed to them in a way HHH never could.

Ok. What about OH?

[hawkeye59]

You're right.

[hawkeye59]

Well, in this scenario, the ticket is RFK/Muskie. In California, the hispanic and blue-collar voters (there were a lot) go for Kennedy, who wins the state by about 500 votes.

[hawkeye59]

An all catholic ticket? I'd be more inclined to go with Kennedy/Sanford or Kennedy/Smathers.

I forgot Muskie was catholic. Maybe Kennedy/Symington or Kennedy/Scoop or Kennedy/Proxmire or Kennedy/Gaylord Nelson.

[hawkeye59]

Nixon will be bleeding votes to Bobby, but Bobby will be bleeding HHH votes to Wallace

Kennedy picks up CA, OH, and WI. (234 EV)
Nixon picks up MD and TX. (227 EV)
Wallace picks up NC, SC, and TN (77 EV)

Nixon gets a less than 1% plurality of popular vote.

IL to NIXON? Blue collar workers anyone?

[hawkeye59]

Yeah, but RFK could appeal to blue-collar workers better than HHH.

[hawkeye59]

The ticket would be RFK/Southerner (Gore, Smathers, Yarborough)

And he would have won many of the midwestern states, though he would have done worse in the south. Plug for my TL dealing with this

RFK/Gore is what I'm thinking.

[hawkeye59]

TEXAS?!

[hawkeye59]

TEXAS?!

The actual 1968 Texas vote was:

Humphrey: 41.14%
Nixon 39.87%
Wallace: 18.97%

If RFK replaces Humphrey, a shift of 4% D-> A and 1% R -> D yields

Nixon 38.87%
Kennedy: 38.14%
Wallace: 22.97%

Not a slam dunk for Nixon, but if, as I believe, Wallace would see gains of around 20% in his vote totals if he's facing RFK instead of HHH, then in close states where he did fairly well but was still solidly in third place, the effect would be to shift states to Nixon despite Milhous getting fewer votes.  That same effect would also make Pennsylvania and Washington State closer for Nixon, but Wallace didn't do as well in those states, so his drain of votes from Bobby wouldn't have cost the Democrats those two states unless the Kennedy campaign went into something like a complete meltdown a la McGovern in 1972.

42.00% PV 329 EV Nixon
37.52% PV 118 EV Kennedy
20.00% PV   91 EV Wallace

I wouldn't expect Kennedy to implode that much, but it wouldn't be impossible.

Hello?LBJ?

[hawkeye59]

bump