Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[Brittain33]

The Republicans are touting a poll that has Critz up by 1, so I'm curious to see what PPP's numbers will look like:

That's great news, given that none of them comes into the race with any recognition.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

PPP says Burns 44-41. Odd that the Republican poll is less favorable to the Republican.

[J. J.]

PPP says Burns 44-41. Odd that the Republican poll is less favorable to the Republican.

It doesn't saw which pollster did it.  Susquehanna? 

I think it will be a GOP victory, but not a blowout.

[Tender Branson]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

[Meeker]

Good news if true

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Cool. I have hope in the Dem primary boosting turnout.

[J. J.]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

Susquehanna is in the running for the "Its Zogby" Award in 2010.

[Brittain33]

I'm getting a bad "Coakley +15" feeling from the Susquehanna poll.

[J. J.]

I'm getting a bad "Coakley +15" feeling from the Susquehanna poll.

It might be Sucks-quehanna.  Really, the track record has not been too good.  We'll know next week.

If this were F & M, PPP, Rasmussen, or most other pollsters, I'd be paying more attention.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd trust Susquehanna over a uni poll like F & M.

[J. J.]

I'd trust Susquehanna over a uni poll like F & M.

I wouldn't, in PA at least.  Even in 2008, F & M was better.

[Vosem]

Interesting. Appalachia is really swinging against Dems, and Burns is the one with the money, so I think it'll go Burns in the end; the primary is more interesting; if Burns has weakness, that's where it'll be exhibited (congressional elections are usually referendums on the incumbent). I'm going to predict something like a 51%-49% win for Burns in both the primary and the general.

[Lunar]

I'd be willing to bet on Critz for this one if someone will give me even money.

The #1 variable favoring Critz is that Democratic turnout with be much more excited over the Sestak/Specter primary, while Toomey has no excitement behind him in the primary itself. 

The more heated things get between Sestak and Specter, as long as it doesn't depress turnout, the more Critz is smiling.

[Torie]

I would be pretty amazed if Critz won, but that is just based on the ether I admit. But this part of the country, and this demographic, is supposed to be in "rebellion." It should be interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Don't really know what to say on this race.  Moving it to Lean R originally was stupid, one of the dumbest things I've done all year - clearly should be in toss-up.

I also don't trust polls from this area of the world - I suspect Al agrees with me on this one.  Maybe I'll have something more concrete to say in a few days.

[Lunar]

Don't really know what to say on this race.  Moving it to Lean R originally was stupid, one of the dumbest things I've done all year - clearly should be in toss-up.

Again, timing here is everything.  If the race were held tomorrow, it'd be lean R.  Since it's next Tuesday, it's a tossup.

Critz was obviously a very intelligent choice for local Democrats, who is well tapped to Murtha's winning message.

[Tender Branson]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

Susquehanna is in the running for the "Its Zogby" Award in 2010.

Harr-Harr ...

[Lunar]

It's not nearly as exciting to catch 'm in those anymore.

I'm glad I knew to reverse my prediction from Specter to Sestak as soon as he agreed with me though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Read the first page of this. LOL.

[J. J.]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

Susquehanna is in the running for the "Its Zogby" Award in 2010.

Harr-Harr ...

Even Zogby gets it right occasionally.

[Meeker]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

Susquehanna is in the running for the "Its Zogby" Award in 2010.

Harr-Harr ...

Even Zogby gets it right occasionally.

And you get it wrong every time.

[Iosif]

Another fine election day showing from Mensa J. J..

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only question is how big does the GOP win by.

I'd make this my sig if I had something against Beet, but of course I don't.

[Torie]

The only question is how big does the GOP win by.

I'd make this my sig if I had something against Beet, but of course I don't.

Well in lieu thereof, you could find my post where I said I would be "amazed" if Critz won.

I need a new crystal ball!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The more humbling thing is that it wasn't even close really. It'd be one thing if Critz squeaked out by less than a percent.