Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[MArepublican]

Is Russell our nominee or is anyone else likely to jump in.

[TeePee4Prez]

GOP pickup.

I'm just wondering if there will be a special election.

On of Murtha's sons was convicted of armed robbery in the mid-80's.

My guess would be John Wozniak, a state senator, for the D's.  Possibly a state rep, Wojnaroski

There are numerous D and R candidates

You are cocky.  And I hope the rest of your party shares that.  Hopefully for us former LT. Gov. Mark Singel runs for the seat.  He would likely beat carpetbagger extremist Bill Russell.

[Lunar]

How can anyone who's district looks like an anorexic crawfish care about carpetbagging?

[J. J.]

GOP pickup.

I'm just wondering if there will be a special election.

On of Murtha's sons was convicted of armed robbery in the mid-80's.

My guess would be John Wozniak, a state senator, for the D's.  Possibly a state rep, Wojnaroski

There are numerous D and R candidates

You are cocky.  And I hope the rest of your party shares that.  Hopefully for us former LT. Gov. Mark Singel runs for the seat.  He would likely beat carpetbagger extremist Bill Russell.

What's "cocky" about it?  I've been saying that Murtha would have a problem in 2010. 

Singel has been out of the area for, oh, for nearly as long as I have.   His major financial patron died in 2001.  His old state senate district only includes a fraction of the current 12th District.

[TeePee4Prez]

GOP pickup.

I'm just wondering if there will be a special election.

On of Murtha's sons was convicted of armed robbery in the mid-80's.

My guess would be John Wozniak, a state senator, for the D's.  Possibly a state rep, Wojnaroski

There are numerous D and R candidates

You are cocky.  And I hope the rest of your party shares that.  Hopefully for us former LT. Gov. Mark Singel runs for the seat.  He would likely beat carpetbagger extremist Bill Russell.

What's "cocky" about it?  I've been saying that Murtha would have a problem in 2010. 

Singel has been out of the area for, oh, for nearly as long as I have.   His major financial patron died in 2001.  His old state senate district only includes a fraction of the current 12th District.

You made it sound like a GOP shoo-in.  You can't take the Obama-McCain election as a future forecaster for it is still a very Democratic district and there is a deep Dem bench.  The 2008 election was an anomaly and Hillary Clinton would have likely won that district by at least 10 points. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You made it sound like a GOP shoo-in.  You can't take the Obama-McCain election as a future forecaster for it is still a very Democratic district and there is a deep Dem bench.  The 2008 election was an anomaly and Hillary Clinton would have likely won that district by at least 10 points. 

Honestly, why would a top-tier Democrat even want to run for the seat?  Pennsylvania is losing seats in 2012, and if a Democrat wins this, they're guaranteed to be redistricted into oblivion.

Not to even mention the standard 2010 line about Democrats being likely to get slaughtered.

[Brittain33]

Honestly, why would a top-tier Democrat even want to run for the seat?  Pennsylvania is losing seats in 2012, and if a Democrat wins this, they're guaranteed to be redistricted into oblivion.

Why would a Republican run for it in that case, though? Even if the Republicans have total control of the redistricting process, the district is going to be mangled or eliminated based on its position between Shuster and Murphy. There's nowhere for the district to go that helps an incumbent of either party.

[minionofmidas]

The winner of this district in 2010 would likely be sent to square off against which incumbent in 2012?  I guess he might get to choose.

It depends whereabouts in the district he's from, what happens in all the other races-to-watch in the western half of the state, and who controls redistricting.

Ie, unpredictable.

[You kip if you want to...]

The Dems can't win an R+1 district in their current state... GOP pickup.

[Brittain33]

The Dems can't win an R+1 district in their current state... GOP pickup.

PVI is as misleading here as it is in California.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah this is a seat where any local Dem should run much better than Obama. Remember it's the only Kerry/McCain district in the country.

[Hash]

Yeah this is a seat where any local Dem should run much better than Obama. Remember it's the only Kerry/McCain district in the country.

Though recent trends in VA and MA recently have shown that working-class voters similar to those in PA-12 are moving away from the Democrats in the recent climate.

[Brittain33]

Though recent trends in VA and MA recently have shown that working-class voters similar to those in PA-12 are moving away from the Democrats in the recent climate.

I don't think that's what happened in MA. The big shift was among middle-class people (to be specific, not upper middle-class people) switching from D to R and then minority communities having much lower voting participation. There isn't much of a working class in either VA or MA that resembles PA-12. So far it looks like a suburban swing. Ditto for NJ, while we're at it.

PA-12 moved away from the Democrats in 2008 and Obama still won it narrowly. Remember, this was a district that was drawn in part to create a safe Republican district in PA-18 and to combine the bases of two Democratic congressmen. We won't know how the race will go until candidates step up, but I think the district is not as much lean R as some would like to believe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Areas like this are very insular. National trends and the 2008 Presidential election or not we'll have to see who the candidates are before we can start to think about calling this one.

[Guderian]

Somebody must convince Obama to campaign for the Democrat here.

[TeePee4Prez]

The Dems can't win an R+1 district in their current state... GOP pickup.

PVI is as misleading here as it is in California.

For PA-12, it's VERY misleading.  Most Dems would do better generically plus dare I say the race issue.  PA-12 is a northern extension of West Virginia in that it's very Democratic, but not in Presidential elections.  I would not be too cocky if I were the GOP and Murtha had a lot of skeletons in his closet on his own count.

[J. J.]

The Dems can't win an R+1 district in their current state... GOP pickup.

PVI is as misleading here as it is in California.

For PA-12, it's VERY misleading.  Most Dems would do better generically plus dare I say the race issue.  PA-12 is a northern extension of West Virginia in that it's very Democratic, but not in Presidential elections.  I would not be too cocky if I were the GOP and Murtha had a lot of skeletons in his closet on his own count.

Actually, I was looking at Westmoreland County.  For the first time in 50 years, one of those non-minority row officers was picked up by the GOP; I think it was clerk of courts, a minor post.  But that the Republicans could capture such a minor post, where there are no issues, shows a marked change in voter attitude.


Two of the overlapping State Senate districts are Republican.  I use to live there and this was supposedly impossible; it was impossible 20 years ago.

It is an area of GOP ascendancy, or perhaps WV without Byrd.

[Brittain33]

Actually, I was looking at Westmoreland County.  For the first time in 50 years, one of those non-minority row officers was picked up by the GOP; I think it was clerk of courts, a minor post.  But that the Republicans could capture such a minor post, where there are no issues, shows a marked change in voter attitude.

That may explain why in 2002, the state legislature moved the bulk of Westmoreland County into the 18th district to make that district safe for Tim Murphy. Westmoreland voted 57% for McCain and 56% for George W. Bush. What does that make its PVI, if the PVI for PA-12 is R+1?

You won't get much argument that the Pittsburgh suburbs have become significantly Republican. The question is, how much salience does that have for PA-12, which is not a suburban district?

[J. J.]

Actually, I was looking at Westmoreland County.  For the first time in 50 years, one of those non-minority row officers was picked up by the GOP; I think it was clerk of courts, a minor post.  But that the Republicans could capture such a minor post, where there are no issues, shows a marked change in voter attitude.

That may explain why in 2002, the state legislature moved the bulk of Westmoreland County into the 18th district to make that district safe for Tim Murphy. Westmoreland voted 57% for McCain and 56% for George W. Bush. What does that make its PVI, if the PVI for PA-12 is R+1?

You won't get much argument that the Pittsburgh suburbs have become significantly Republican. The question is, how much salience does that have for PA-12, which is not a suburban district?

As I pointed out, those two State Senate districts, which are multi-county, are represented by Republicans.  Both the 41st and 39th include swaths of the 12th.  Neither was GOP ten years ago.

[J. J.]

BTW: Both Singel, and Wozniak are being mentioned in the press, Wozniak more so.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/09/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6190866.shtml

The election is set for May 18.

[Brittain33]

As I pointed out, those two State Senate districts, which are multi-county, are represented by Republicans.  Both the 41st and 39th include swaths of the 12th.  Neither was GOP ten years ago.

Look at the 39th's location again.

[Brittain33]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

[TeePee4Prez]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

I'd be all for that.  A liberal Democrat to succeed Murtha with a chance to win would be nice.

[J. J.]

Barbara Hafer is running as a Democrat.

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/02/exclusive-hafer-running-to-succeed-murtha/

Probably too liberal for the 12th; Johnstown is Peg Lusik's home turf.

I think Hafer lives out of the district, which isn't illegal, but won't help.

I'd also wonder if she would win the Democratic nomination.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I can't think of a better way to make this a cakewalk.

Russell (R) 60%
Hafer (D) 38%