Why are some Midwestern suburbs so conservative?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Waukesha County, WI: 62.32% McCain
The suburban ring around the Twin Cities in MN: Many counties with near 60% for McCain
The suburbs of Omaha: Over 60% for McCain

It seems that some of these Midwestern suburbs are more conservative than some rural areas in the Midwest, especially in states like Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Does anyone have an explanation as to why this is?

[The Age Wave]

Minnesota's Republicans usually have been super strong in the suburbs, while the DFL actually did well in rural areas. Same for Wisconsin, oddly.

[Padfoot]

I have one word for you: mega-churches.  A lot of the people who belong to the giant warehouse churches live in the Midwestern suburbs.  I speak from experience as someone who was raised in Butler County, Ohio (also over 60% for McCain).  Suburbanites are social conservatives to the extreme in many parts of the Midwest.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I have one word for you: mega-churches.  A lot of the people who belong to the giant warehouse churches live in the Midwestern suburbs.  I speak from experience as someone who was raised in Butler County, Ohio (also over 60% for McCain).  Suburbanites are social conservatives to the extreme in many parts of the Midwest.

Makes sense. And if they are middle-class or wealthier, they'd be economic conservatives too.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Scandinavians, maybe?

In Sweden and Norway the right has their strongholds in the suburbs while rural areas usually are more left than D.C. is in America.

 

[rebeltarian]

Because they're chock-full of white folks who pay taxes and go to church.

[CJK]

The bigger question is why rural Wisconsin and Minnesota voters are so liberal.

[Cubby]

The bigger question is why rural Wisconsin and Minnesota voters are so liberal.

Scandinavians, maybe?

I think they are still pro-gun though. And Oberstar (MN-8) is pro-life but keeps getting re-elected, so they aren't all liberal.

[The Night Owlditor]

Don't forget the Indianapolis suburbs - just look at how dark blue the counties north of Marion County/Indianapolis are! Scary.

Not all suburban counties in the Midwest are so conservative - St. Louis County comes to mind. John Kerry won it in 2004 and so did Obama in 2008 by close to 60 percent of the vote. It's like most suburban counties in the Midwest (white and heavily affluent but full of highly educated people). Same goes for Jefferson County which consists of many of the southern suburbs of St. Louis. It's a little more rural than St. Louis County but a swing county (Bush narrowly won it in 2004 and Obama carried it by like 2 points in 2008). Republicans still have a lock on the more exurban St. Charles County, which is the most affluent county in Missouri, but it was pretty close in 2008 as was the more exurban Franklin County which is becoming more and more urbanized, so this GOP stronghold could go Democratic anytime soon. I won't be heartbroken if it doesn't, though, seeing as how this place is the Meth Capital of the USA.

As for Minnesota, it depends on your definition of suburbs. Aren't most of the Twin Cities suburbs within Hennepin County still pretty Democratic (more specifically, the suburbs in MN-03 which I believe both Kerry and Obama won this district). If you're talking about the counties outside of and surrounding Hennepin County, I do believe this is MN-06 territory. Why so conservative? Two words: Michele Bachmann. Not much else to explain - people in MN-06 obviously need CAT scans for continuously reelecting Caribou Barbie's menacing cousin from the North. I'd say these counties are more exurban as opposed to suburban, but I'm not from Minnesota so I don't know.

Wisconsin is a mystery. Obama won pretty much every county in Wisconsin, including many if not all of the rural counties that George W. Bush won in 2004. It's puzzling how the rural counties in Wisconsin are more liberal than the Milwaukee suburbs (Waukesha, Washington, etc.). I've heard it mentioned somewhere on here how the Milwaukee suburbs aren't like many other suburbs and how the Milwaukee suburbs are instead full of blue-collar, working-class people. Not sure if this is true or not, but if so, maybe these Reagan Democrats in Wisconsin have went more Republican than Reagan Democrats nationwide. Not sure.

[memphis]

It really depends on the specific city you're talking about. Plenty of Midwestern cities (Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Chicago) have Democratic suburbs. Each town is different.

[fezzyfestoon]

Hahaha Omaha suburbs.

[The Night Owlditor]

Hahaha Omaha suburbs.

LOL right. Where are they? I've never heard of them.

[ARescan]

I live in Chicagoland and my area is very Dem. Other than myself and my cousin, my whole family is Dem. It's weird because most of us are church going, honest, white people. Not saying liberals aren't honest or white.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Hahaha Omaha suburbs.

LOL right. Where are they? I've never heard of them.

Sorry, you're right. Omaha doesn't have much of a suburban area. I guess I was just listing prominent Midwestern cities without thinking much.

[Ban my account ffs!]

The really conservative areas of Minnesota are the western exurbs of Minneapolis in a ring from Wright county to Carver and Scott County.

These counties are seeing a lot of growth, but most cities within these counties are still pretty small and all 3 of those counties still have a lot of rural farmland.

The established 2nd ring burbs and inner ring suburbs are more moderate and liberal, respectively with the inner ring burbs having recently turned strongly DFL.

In rural Minnesota, a lot of it comes down to historical ethnic lines:  The more Norwegian/Swedish/Finnish/eastern European/protestant German the area, the more liberal.  The more German Catholic, the more conservative.  Northeastern MN saw the most immigration from Finnland, Poland, Croatia, and Italy with Swedes and Norwegians along the North Shore while NW Minnesota was mostly Norwegian (as was the area along the Minnesota River valley and south-central Minnesota).

The trend during the 1990s was towards the Republicans even into northern Minnesota, but that trend completely reversed by 2004.  Southeastern Minnesota has trended away from the Republicans largely due to the large number of moderates down there and their stronger support of the centrist IP.

Interestingly... in a 3 way race in Minnesota, the state has broken down like this:

Southeastern MN:  Republicans usually win a plurality with the IP coming in a strong second. 

Inner city/inner ring burbs:  DFL with strong IP/weak Republican
Exurbs:  Strong GOP with roughly equal, weak IP/DFL
Central MN:  GOP edge
Northern MN:  DFL strong/GOP moderate/IP weak.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

Southeastern MN:  Republicans usually win a plurality with the IP coming in a strong second. 

That's only happened once (Governor's race 2002) and only then because the IP candidate was from the area.

I'd post more but I can't now. Will later.

[falling apart like the ashes of American flags]

First of all, Omaha does have suburbs. What are Bellevue and Papillion and Council Bluffs in Iowa?

Second of all, I don't think megachurches have much to do with this, they're there all right but I really doubt the majority are going to them. Sherburne and Scott counties are actually two of the least religious counties in Minnesota by ARDA data. Of course they're also lacking in the ELCA and progressive churches too and almost everyone who is going is going to one of those megachurches. But ultimately, such places are really just combinations of gun-loving rednecks, tax-haters, people who believe they must own a house to be a truly productive working murican but can't afford one in any area that isn't a subdivision filled hell of cheap land so they buy one there basically. There's not much other reason to live there, not many places to work, people who don't want to commute an insane distance are in the cities or inner suburbs.

It's also worth noting that these areas had a bit of a Republican lean before the exurbs got there. Look at Carver County, which hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since 1932. Carver's German towns have been voting Republican since the party existed. The exurbs have only strengthened that. Interestingly they've probably also increased the Democrats' floor at least, though they've made it truly unwinnable. Meanwhile traditionally Democratic Chisago and Isanti counties still have some Democratic-voting towns and a DFL State Senator, don't count on him being there in 2011 though, but it shows that tradition allowed the DFL something there. They don't have that in Wright or Scott. But not everything is homogenous, you all might want to review this: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=110547.0

[minionofmidas]

It's also worth noting that these areas had a bit of a Republican lean before the exurbs got there. Look at Carver County, which hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since 1932. Carver's German towns have been voting Republican since the party existed. The exurbs have only strengthened that. Interestingly they've probably also increased the Democrats' floor at least, though they've made it truly unwinnable.

...and the same is true for Milwaukee.

[nclib]

It really depends on the specific city you're talking about. Plenty of Midwestern cities (Detroit, St. Louis, Cleveland, Chicago) have Democratic suburbs. Each town is different.

I have one word for you: mega-churches.  A lot of the people who belong to the giant warehouse churches live in the Midwestern suburbs.  I speak from experience as someone who was raised in Butler County, Ohio (also over 60% for McCain).  Suburbanites are social conservatives to the extreme in many parts of the Midwest.

Yes. Though with Chicago, Obama's appeal there was obviously stronger than past Democrats (Kerry lost every Chicago metro county but Cook, though he still won suburban Chicagoland).

Definitely true with Cincinnati - even Hamilton County minus Cincy was 57% McCain.

[memphis]

In addition to what others have pointed out, midwestern suburbs are almost all exclusively white. This is not the case in much of the rest of the nation.

[Хahar 🤔]

I live in Chicagoland and my area is very Dem. Other than myself and my cousin, my whole family is Dem. It's weird because most of us are church going, honest, white people. Not saying liberals aren't honest or white.

That would seem to be your implication, though.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Another issue is that the manufacturing upper-middle class are more actively anti-union than their banking or IT counterparts who are more numerous in the northeast and west coast. Imagine three comfortable suburban professionals: A makes 100K a year at Microsoft on the Seattle eastside, B makes 100K a year at a bank in New York to which he commutes from north Jersey, and C makes 100K a year as a manager at a small widget manufacturer in the Milwaukee area. Superficially, the identical salaries might make it appear they have the same economic interests, but for two card check is basically an abstraction while the other sees it as a threat to his livelihood. And strong views about unions have a way of influencing one's overall outlook even when labour law isn't really at stake in an election.

[Nhoj]

For Milwaukee white flight needs to be mentioned. Of course ancestry and wealth are also major factors.