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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Coolface's deceased great-granduncle, Apocrypha)
  Gore vs. Frist 2004, with a twist
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Author Topic: Gore vs. Frist 2004, with a twist  (Read 2404 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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« on: January 25, 2010, 09:07:07 pm »

Gore narrowly wins in 2000. The Republicans nominate Bill Frist in 2004, while Democrats renominate Gore. Gore goes into Afghanistan after 9/11 but not does invade Iraq. Everything else stays the same. Who would win?

My map:



Bill Frist/John Engler-300 EV-50.36% PV
Al Gore/Joe Lieberman-238 EV-48.55% PV
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2010, 11:11:38 pm »

Anyone?
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phk
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2010, 11:23:52 pm »

Probably the same as yours.
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Apocrypha
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« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2010, 11:26:11 pm »

Probably the same as yours plus Michigan..
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dwkulcsar
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2010, 11:27:08 pm »

I don't see Frist getting Wisconsin or Iowa with Engler. Engler was sorta low key and was by then out of office. New Mexico only went to Bush in 2004 because of voting irregularities in Native American precincts.
As well as if Gore never made Saddam a person of interest as Bush did, the very idea of Iraq would be an issue of "Vote for Frist, he'll go to War", and usually people don't like those dilemmas.
Likewise, if Gore was able to rebound from the Dot Com recession well and the economy was stable, I see no reason for why he wouldn't be in the 300+ range with EV'shey
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2010, 11:27:42 pm »

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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2010, 11:39:05 pm »

I don't see Frist getting Wisconsin or Iowa with Engler. Engler was sorta low key and was by then out of office. New Mexico only went to Bush in 2004 because of voting irregularities in Native American precincts.
As well as if Gore never made Saddam a person of interest as Bush did, the very idea of Iraq would be an issue of "Vote for Frist, he'll go to War", and usually people don't like those dilemmas.
Likewise, if Gore was able to rebound from the Dot Com recession well and the economy was stable, I see no reason for why he wouldn't be in the 300+ range with EV'shey

I'm not sure one year of a good economy (2004) would compensate for three bad ones (2001-2003). Also, I seriously doubt the economy would have been much different from RL as I don't see what Gore would have been able to do differently (he might have tried to pass a stimulus, but the Republicans would not have let him). Also, there would be no or very little job creation during Gore's Presidency, and he could very well have the lowest annual job creation rate in 70+ years (since Hoover). Also, economic growth under Gore would be much lower and average unemployment would be higher than under Clinton, which Republicans would also frequently emphasize. Finally, I think Gore's lack of charisma and Democratic fatigue after they controlled the White House for 12 years would allow for a narrow Frist victory.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2010, 11:40:15 pm »


Hack map.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2010, 11:50:21 pm »


LOL, hack map? I'm not a Democrat and I despise Gore.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2010, 12:09:06 am »


It's not being a hack, it's COMMON SENSE. The War in Iraq wasn't the most popular topic in 2004, President Gore not going into an unnecessary war would definitely help him score a comfortable electoral victory.
Don't let Roch bother you Libertas, he's letting his populist hardon for strong military industrial complex go to his head.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2010, 12:11:45 am »


It's not being a hack, it's COMMON SENSE. The War in Iraq wasn't the most popular topic in 2004, President Gore not going into an unnecessary war would definitely help him score a comfortable electoral victory.
Don't let Roch bother you Libertas, he's letting his populist hardon for strong military industrial complex go to his head.

Do you think Gore would win if McCain was the nominee in this scenario instead of Frist?
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Mechaman
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« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2010, 12:16:20 am »


It's not being a hack, it's COMMON SENSE. The War in Iraq wasn't the most popular topic in 2004, President Gore not going into an unnecessary war would definitely help him score a comfortable electoral victory.
Don't let Roch bother you Libertas, he's letting his populist hardon for strong military industrial complex go to his head.

Do you think Gore would win if McCain was the nominee in this scenario instead of Frist?

Possibly not.
Hell, if McCain was the nominee in 2000 I doubt Gore would even have this term to begin with...........

I'll be honest, I don't really see Frist as being a presidential nominee, so yeah maybe.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2010, 09:49:35 am »

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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2010, 05:51:10 pm »


I think OH and WI will be tossups. The U.S. economy just came out of a recession in 2004 and the economy (as well as Gore's poor economic record) would still be very much in people's minds in 2004. Gore might win both states, but if he does (a very big if) then he would win then by 1% or less. What makes you think Gore would win West Virginia in 2004 if he failed to do so in 2000? I think First would win WB by at least 4-5%.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2010, 12:09:12 pm »

Frist/Engler--awesome choice!!!

(though perhaps I'm biased as a Tennessean with family from Michigan)
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2010, 11:27:38 pm »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2010, 12:56:17 am »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.

Gore is the incumbent and we're a nation at war. He has the clear advantage.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2010, 12:59:41 am »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.

Gore is the incumbent and we're a nation at war. He has the clear advantage.

Even though the U.S. would still be in Afghanistan, the situation there would have likely more or less stabilized by 2004, and thus people would have began to focus much more on the economy, Gore's economic record, and job creation, where Gore would have a clear disadvantage. Combine that with Democratic fatigue and Gore's lack of charisma and Gore could very well lose.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2010, 01:19:19 am »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.

Gore is the incumbent and we're a nation at war. He has the clear advantage.

Even though the U.S. would still be in Afghanistan, the situation there would have likely more or less stabilized by 2004, and thus people would have began to focus much more on the economy, Gore's economic record, and job creation, where Gore would have a clear disadvantage. Combine that with Democratic fatigue and Gore's lack of charisma and Gore could very well lose.

Doubtful that Frist would be able to capitalize on that much. Unless the economy was absolutely terrible, voters were still not going to be eager to dump a wartime president who led the country after 9/11.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2010, 01:22:18 am »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.

Gore is the incumbent and we're a nation at war. He has the clear advantage.

Even though the U.S. would still be in Afghanistan, the situation there would have likely more or less stabilized by 2004, and thus people would have began to focus much more on the economy, Gore's economic record, and job creation, where Gore would have a clear disadvantage. Combine that with Democratic fatigue and Gore's lack of charisma and Gore could very well lose.

Doubtful that Frist would be able to capitalize on that much. Unless the economy was absolutely terrible, voters were still not going to be eager to dump a wartime president who led the country after 9/11.

They almost dumped Bush. What makes you think they wouldn't be able to dump Gore?
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2010, 02:26:00 am »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.

Gore is the incumbent and we're a nation at war. He has the clear advantage.

Even though the U.S. would still be in Afghanistan, the situation there would have likely more or less stabilized by 2004, and thus people would have began to focus much more on the economy, Gore's economic record, and job creation, where Gore would have a clear disadvantage. Combine that with Democratic fatigue and Gore's lack of charisma and Gore could very well lose.

Doubtful that Frist would be able to capitalize on that much. Unless the economy was absolutely terrible, voters were still not going to be eager to dump a wartime president who led the country after 9/11.

They almost dumped Bush. What makes you think they wouldn't be able to dump Gore?

Bush started Iraq...
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2010, 02:32:32 am »

There are very few scenarios that I can think of where Gore wins reelection in 2004 after his election in 2000. Many factors would be against him.

I agree. Here are the factors that I would have against Gore:

-Democrats controlled the WH for 12 years
-Very low job creation
-Mediocre economic record
-Lack of charisma
-Republicans' ability to run a smear campaign

If you have any more factors, please list them.

Gore is the incumbent and we're a nation at war. He has the clear advantage.

Even though the U.S. would still be in Afghanistan, the situation there would have likely more or less stabilized by 2004, and thus people would have began to focus much more on the economy, Gore's economic record, and job creation, where Gore would have a clear disadvantage. Combine that with Democratic fatigue and Gore's lack of charisma and Gore could very well lose.

Doubtful that Frist would be able to capitalize on that much. Unless the economy was absolutely terrible, voters were still not going to be eager to dump a wartime president who led the country after 9/11.

They almost dumped Bush. What makes you think they wouldn't be able to dump Gore?

Bush started Iraq...

And Gore started Afghanistan. BTW, the Iraq War had high support when it began.
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