John Thune

[hcallega]

he would be great, but much like Mitt he needs to prove that he can run a good national campaign. I don't think he'll run in '12 for that matter anyway. It's too risky and odds are that the economy will be better by then, though unemployment will still be a factor.

[Bo]

I wouldn't be surprised if younger voters make a radical shift rightwards soon, maybe not on social issues, but on fiscal issues for sure, so who knows, maybe Thune could do well among younger voters.

Fiscally conservative does not equal Republican. In fact, the last three Republican Presidents were the most fiscally irresponsible in our nation's history, despite all of them being self-declared fiscal conservatives. I'm sure many young people don't know that (even though I'm sure many of them remember Bush Jr.), but the Democrats can always remind them about this, especially if they nominate a candidate that communicates well with young voters like Obama.

[RosettaStoned]

Romney's running mate.

[pbrower2a]

Yawn.  Thune has a cookie-cutter neoconservative voting record.  He's a party-line ideologue who brings nothing new to the country whatsoever.

Thune would be vulnerable in November if Obama regains popularity. He barely beat om Daschle in 2004, a good year for Republican candidates. To have any viability as a Republican nominee as either President or Vice-President in 2012 he must win re-election in 2010. He is an obvious  target for the Democratic Senate campaign in 2010.

[tmthforu94]

Yawn.  Thune has a cookie-cutter neoconservative voting record.  He's a party-line ideologue who brings nothing new to the country whatsoever.

He barely beat om Daschle in 2004, a good year for Republican candidates.

Hack alert...
Let's also keep in mind that Daschle was popular in South Dakota, was the minority leader, and had the DNCC strongly backing him. Most Republicans would have lost by more than 10 points in that scenario.

[ConservativeIllini]

Yawn.  Thune has a cookie-cutter neoconservative voting record.  He's a party-line ideologue who brings nothing new to the country whatsoever.

Thune would be vulnerable in November if Obama regains popularity. He barely beat om Daschle in 2004, a good year for Republican candidates. To have any viability as a Republican nominee as either President or Vice-President in 2012 he must win re-election in 2010. He is an obvious  target for the Democratic Senate campaign in 2010.

Even if the Dems gained signficant popularity, which is possible, Thune will not at all be vulnerable.  He beat the Senate Minority Leader in the last election, and Daschle was very highly regarded in SD, despite being a Dem.

[JSojourner]

Yawn.  Thune has a cookie-cutter neoconservative voting record.  He's a party-line ideologue who brings nothing new to the country whatsoever.

Thune would be vulnerable in November if Obama regains popularity. He barely beat om Daschle in 2004, a good year for Republican candidates. To have any viability as a Republican nominee as either President or Vice-President in 2012 he must win re-election in 2010. He is an obvious  target for the Democratic Senate campaign in 2010.

Even if the Dems gained signficant popularity, which is possible, Thune will not at all be vulnerable.  He beat the Senate Minority Leader in the last election, and Daschle was very highly regarded in SD, despite being a Dem.

I have to agree with this.  While Stephanie Herseth Sandlin would give Thune a run for his money, I cannot imagine anyone unseating him, barring a scandal of some sort.

Of course, as a member of "The Family", Thune may well have a skeleton or two under wraps. The Family track record is not so good.

[milhouse24]

Thune will definitely run in 2012, just so he can be considered as a VP candidate or set up the groundwork for a 2016 run.  He needs the national exposure because he sure won't get it from his small state market. 

The VP spot on the ticket is his to lose in my opinion.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thune will definitely run in 2012, just so he can be considered as a VP candidate or set up the groundwork for a 2016 run.  He needs the national exposure because he sure won't get it from his small state market. 

The VP spot on the ticket is his to lose in my opinion.

If Thune is interested, I think he has a shot at the very top of the GOP ticket in 2012...it's much more risky for him to pass on 2012, because if Obama loses, means Thune doesn't get another chance until '20 or '24

We should know by April of this year if Thune is going to make his move

[Jensen]

What makes Thune any different from Santorum, Gingrich, or Palin and that whole clan?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

What makes Thune any different from Santorum, Gingrich, or Palin and that whole clan?

Palin knows nothing outside of Alaska and is near-mortally wounded...Gingrich is damaged goods and too in-your-face...Santorum is found of throwing grenades, making wild claims, and scaring the bejabbers out of most Americans...

Thune has none of these problems

[milhouse24]

Thune will definitely run in 2012, just so he can be considered as a VP candidate or set up the groundwork for a 2016 run.  He needs the national exposure because he sure won't get it from his small state market. 

The VP spot on the ticket is his to lose in my opinion.

If Thune is interested, I think he has a shot at the very top of the GOP ticket in 2012...it's much more risky for him to pass on 2012, because if Obama loses, means Thune doesn't get another chance until '20 or '24

We should know by April of this year if Thune is going to make his move

It would be tricky to get the nomination as a Senator becuase he has all the HC/Wall Street Bailout issues.  But he should NOT skip 2012, even if he is not on the ticket, it would set him up for 2016. 

As for Palin, Gingrich, and Santorum, they are all out of elective politics and can be called out-of-touch.  Santorum does have a good chance though, better than Palin and Newt.

[pbrower2a]

What makes Thune any different from Santorum, Gingrich, or Palin and that whole clan?

Palin knows nothing outside of Alaska and is near-mortally wounded...Gingrich is damaged goods and too in-your-face...Santorum is found of throwing grenades, making wild claims, and scaring the bejabbers out of most Americans...

Thune has none of these problems

 John Thune isn't so well known, and neither are his political vulnerabilities.  We know how that worked with Sarah Palin in 2008. He cannot win in 2012 on a program of nostalgia for an America that fits some now-archaic image. he is probably much smarter than Sarah Palin, so he won't make the same mistake of presenting rural America as the "real America" or exposing such overt anti-intellectualism. American political culture will be much the same in 2012 as in 2008.

The 2012 Presidential race is for President Obama to lose. No Republican can now beat him; Obama has to lose enough credibility as President through incompetence, bad luck, corruption, or scandal to become vulnerable to any imaginable Republican nominee.



  

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

John Thune isn't so well known, and neither are his political vulnerabilities.

very true

---

The 2012 Presidential race is for President Obama to lose. No Republican can now beat him; Obama has to lose enough credibility as President through incompetence, bad luck, corruption, or scandal to become vulnerable to any imaginable Republican nominee.

I highly disagree.  This is a very dangerous time period for America and Obama will face several crises between now and Nov 2012.  There are many international powder kegs: NKorea, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Israeli/Muslim conflict, etc, etc.

I’d place Obama’s reelection chances at 60%, but it’s too early to predict.  Though I could easily draw up a scenario where Obama loses 45+ states (double-dip recession + loss of couple of airliners due to terrorism + Iran successfully testing a bomb).  There’s a lot going to happen in the world over the next 3 years and most will probably be bad simply because things are moving in the wrong direction and in cases like the middle east, they’ve been moving that way for decades. The whole region of Turkey/Lebanon/Sryia/Iraq/Iran/Afganistan/Pakistan is spiraling out of control.

For Obama to win reelection, unemployment will have to be <7.5% and women will have to feel like Obama is protecting the country from terrorism….neither one of which is any where close to being a given.



 

[milhouse24]

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that this guy will be a factor in the 2012 race? He's a mainstream conservative, young, tall, handsome, and he plays some good basketball. So, in that case, Thune is basically the Republican version of Barack Obama. He's also a giant killer, defeating Tom Daschle, The former Democratic Senate leader, in 2004. If he ran, he would probably occupy the "mainstream conservative insurgent" niche,which is similar to the role that Romney and Thomspon played, or tried to play, in 2008. What do you all think?

I think Thune has a Derek Zoolander problem - "he's really, really good-looking" and while he's competent and a good speaker, and I might get more comfortable with him, but he seems too cookie-cutter and "perfect" to be taken seriously.

Maybe that is what average americans want, a "cardboard movie star" but Thune will really need to bring the charisma and gravitas to win the Nomination.  People might not take him seriously, even though he does have the substance.  People will take Romney seriously on business issues, but Romney is untrustworthy on anything else. 

If Thune can look a bit older, he can overtake romney.  I think he is a darkhorse stealth candidate that could surprise the GOP, just like Obama did with the DEms.

[Coburn In 2012]

Thune will run will win the nomination and will beat Obama in a landslide.

He is that good.

[tarheel-leftist85]

what is it with you rethugz and banksterDems liking boyish-looking politicians?  maybe obama and thune get matching pedicures before the debate and so y'all can swoon--all bipartisan like

[pbrower2a]

Thune will run will win the nomination and will beat Obama in a landslide.

He is that good.

No, it is Barack Obama who will win in a landslide under the following circumstances:

1. Graceful exit from Iraq

2. Graceful exit from Afghanistan

3. Economy with stable growth, much in contrast to 2008.

He would have solved most of the problems that got him elected in the first place.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thune will run will win the nomination and will beat Obama in a landslide.

He is that good.

No, it is Barack Obama who will win in a landslide under the following circumstances:

1. Graceful exit from Iraq

2. Graceful exit from Afghanistan

either one of those is highly highly unlikely.  Iran now owns Iraq, and nothing in Afghanistan has ever been "graceful"

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3. Economy with stable growth, much in contrast to 2008.

He would have solved most of the problems that got him elected in the first place.

this is really Obama's best and only shot at reelection...but it is certainly not a given...at best, there is only 50/50 chance unemployment will be <7% by Nov 2012...but it might not be enough to offset failures abroad and perpetual $1T annual deficits and much higher taxes.

Fair or unfair, there are many more things out of Obama's control than there are things in his control, that can cause him to lose reelection.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I hope not. Thune is a generic neocon Bush-clone.

[milhouse24]

I hope not. Thune is a generic neocon Bush-clone.

That may be true, but Bush did win 2 terms, so some part of the country finds that appealing. 

McCain was sort of a moving target, his supposed base of voters had no idea what he was for or wanted to do, highly unpredictable.  Most independents were against the Iraq War, so McCain lost that vote too.

[milhouse24]

Has Iran taken over Iraq, I haven't been following the news.  I knew eventually this would happen, but I thought iraq stabilized.  The important question is, do we still control the iraqi oil fields?  How would a bigger Iran effect the middle east?  Would there be more infighting or would they become super power?

either one of those is highly highly unlikely.  Iran now owns Iraq, and nothing in Afghanistan has ever been "graceful"

---

3. Economy with stable growth, much in contrast to 2008.

He would have solved most of the problems that got him elected in the first place.

this is really Obama's best and only shot at reelection...but it is certainly not a given...at best, there is only 50/50 chance unemployment will be <7% by Nov 2012...but it might not be enough to offset failures abroad and perpetual $1T annual deficits and much higher taxes.

Fair or unfair, there are many more things out of Obama's control than there are things in his control, that can cause him to lose reelection.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I hope not. Thune is a generic neocon Bush-clone.

That may be true, but Bush did win 2 terms, so some part of the country finds that appealing. 

McCain was sort of a moving target, his supposed base of voters had no idea what he was for or wanted to do, highly unpredictable.  Most independents were against the Iraq War, so McCain lost that vote too.

Bush barely won his 2 terms and if he had been able to run for a third term in 2008, it would have been a massive landslide defeat.

America has rejected Bush and the will reject Thune.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Has Iran taken over Iraq,

not yet

[pbrower2a]

Thune will run will win the nomination and will beat Obama in a landslide.

He is that good.

No, it is Barack Obama who will win in a landslide under the following circumstances:

1. Graceful exit from Iraq

2. Graceful exit from Afghanistan

either one of those is highly highly unlikely.  Iran now owns Iraq, and nothing in Afghanistan has ever been "graceful"

American troops are being pulled out of Iraq to finish the job in Afghanistan. That's a graceful exit. (Blackwater/Xe is a different matter, and it is having to make a not-so-graceful exit. That can be blamed entirely on Dubya).

Apparently you have never heard of a town called Marja in Afghanistan. The Taliban is being wiped out. No Taliban in Afghanistan means that we can leave Afghanistan with victory.

3. Economy with stable growth, much in contrast to 2008.

He would have solved most of the problems that got him elected in the first place.

this is really Obama's best and only shot at reelection...but it is certainly not a given...at best, there is only 50/50 chance unemployment will be <7% by Nov 2012...but it might not be enough to offset failures abroad and perpetual $1T annual deficits and much higher taxes.

Fair or unfair, there are many more things out of Obama's control than there are things in his control, that can cause him to lose reelection.
[/quote]

President Obama has convincingly shown that when since he became President, job losses  have been reversing the trend associated with the last year of the Bush Administration. Sure, there's much to be done yet... but who would you trust to get it done? But as for the giant deficits -- those saved the hides of people who, even if they didn't deserve being saved (and I am not discussing religion) had to be saved if others weren't to be taken down with them. I suggest that you read a college-level textbook in economics -- the late Paul Samuelson's Principles of Economics is a good survey text.

Tell me about those giant tax increases: recission of Dubya-era tax cuts to the rich? That has yet to happen; they will simply expire in 2011.