MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[J. J.]

MSNBC just said that Coakley HQ was talking about a 5%+ loss.

South Boston was a problem.

[tmthforu94]

A Brown victory seems too good to be true. This mainly comes down to turnout, more than anything else.

[Psychic Octopus]

Ten Minutes and counting.

[You kip if you want to...]

MSNBC has someone on saying ANY other Democrat would have won by 10 points. That is very, very true.

[J. J.]

Nothing on CNN count.

[Beet]

It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

[Lunar]

It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

That assumes they all turn out relative to their percentage of the voter pool. 

[J. J.]

MSNBC has someone on saying ANY other Democrat would have won by 10 points. That is very, very true.

Any other candidate that didn't go on vacation in the middle of the campaign.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Suffolk University / 7 News
11/4-8/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews

Flash-back November 2009:

Favorable / Unfavorable
Deval Patick (D): 43 / 47
Tim Cahill (i): 41 / 13
Martha Coakley (D): 57 / 21
Mike Capuano (D): 38 / 18
Charlie Baker (R): 13 / 7
Christy Mihos (R): 30 / 25
Barack Obama: 62 / 33
Alan Khazei (D): 11 / 9
Steve Pagliuca (D): 35 / 18
Jack E. Robinson (R): 9 / 17
Scott Brown (R): 15 / 8

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 60 / 36
Gov. Patrick: 42 / 51

Do you think Governor Deval Patrick deserves to be re-elected or is it time to elect someone else?
32% deserves re-election, 55% time to elect someone else

2010 Senate Special
Coakley 58%, Brown 27%
Capuano 48%, Brown 29%
Brown 33%, Khazei 30%
Pagliuca 49%, Brown 27%

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ma_2010_gov_sen_special_suffol_1.php

It seems a big part of the problem was the Coakley campaign.

Khazei's numbers were pretty horrible, but someone on SSP was arguing that he'd have been the best candidate.

[Beet]

It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

That assumes they all turn out relative to their percentage of the voter pool. 

Yeah but if anything, Republicans were more energized. If Obama energizes his own base, then all he's managed to do is guarantee 35-50-15 representation. The massive number of independents still screws Coakley.

[Frodo]

If she wins this, we ought to do our damndest to make sure she doesn't win the nomination again when 2012 comes around.  

[Eraserhead]

Well, I guess this would only be the upset of the century if Coakley won at this point.

[Magic 8-Ball]

Leip PMed me and told me that he voted for Kennedy.

haha.

Dave is so independent that he doesn't vote at all.

[Sam Spade]

I know Lunar - just being obnoxious.

[Frodo]

Leip PMed me and told me that he voted for Kennedy.

I didn't realize Leip had a libertarian bent.  

[ajc0918]

3 MINUTES!

[Lunar]

It's not too good to be true; it's very shocking but also quite predictable.

In a state where 50 percent are independent, it's not as Democratic as it seems. If Brown can get all Republicans, 2/3rds of independents and 1 in 7 Democrats to switch, he gets 50*.67+5+15=33.5+5+15=53.5 percent.

That assumes they all turn out relative to their percentage of the voter pool. 

Yeah but if anything, Republicans were more energized. If Obama energizes his own base, then all he's managed to do is guarantee 35-50-15 representation. The massive number of independents still screws Coakley.

Yeah, my point was that she was even more screwed than your numbers would indicate

[Beet]

He's a GenX'er right? A lot of them have a libertarian bent. They grew up in a world that was shedding itself of statist shackles/crutches from the 30 Years' War (1914-1945).

[perdedor]

Last minute calls?

Brown (R) 51.1%
Coakley (D) 47.2%
Kennedy (I) 1.7%

[Psychic Octopus]

POLLS ARE NOW CLOSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[J. J.]

Nobody is declaring it.

[Lief 🗽]

Nobody is declaring it.

How do you propose they declare a race like this without exit polls?

[Beet]

Intrade seems to be 'declaring it' as after trading at 80 all day, Brown has just surged to 90.

[J. J.]

Coakley's pollster (Lake, according to Fox) blaming the White House; White House blaming Coakley.

Just love circular firing squad before the result is announced.

[J. J.]

Nobody is declaring it.

How do you propose they declare a race like this without exit polls?

Well I am watching Fox.