More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer

[Lunar]

Cuomo is a near certainty .  I think Durbin will have maybe a 70% at replacing Reid, while I think Reid has probably a 50-70% of losing reelection.  I disagree with the above poster, however, in that i think Obama also coming from Chicago will actually hurt Durbin's chances. 

What people might not get is that while Schumer is valued as a tactician, he is not particularly telegenic and Durbin is really good at what he does even if he's not always the best politician.  I think Schumer would be a far better majority leader, but I'm not sure if I trust the Democratic caucus to respect that.

We'll see. 

[Lunar]

What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?

2-4%?

I'm not sure.

[Lunar]

um, I'm not really making any arguments here to rebut.  My inclination as of now is to say that Durbin being from Chicago hurts his odds more than helps it, not because of voters but because of the chattering class of D.C. reporters. 

Hell, how many voters actually knew what a public option is and opposed it?  And you saw how the Democratic caucus sawed out a particularly effective part of the bill.  Reality doesn't really seem to sway the Democratic caucus too much these days.

[Lunar]

Regardless, I'm not trying to come up with crazy predictive theories here.  Just noting one potential downside.  I think Durbin will get it over Schumer as of now. 

[Lunar]

Why are people quoting a post from mine in January?  I have retracted the Durbin prediction since then, despite holding onto it way too long.