More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer

[Purple State]

Both events could be a very big change for New York as a result of the 2010 cycle. I understand that if Schumer were to become Senate Majority Leader, it wouldn't necessarily occur until 2011, but I include it because it relies on a loss by Sen. Reid.

So which is it? Governor Andrew Cuomo? Majority Leader Chuck Schumer? Both? Neither?

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

Both are pretty likely.

and I agree, Schumer is probably more favored to be Majority Leader than Durbin

[Psychic Octopus]

Both are equally possible.

[emotional hardcore]

Governor Cuomo is basically a certainty.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Option 1, duh.

[nhmagic]

Cuomo becoming governor is far more likely.  Durbin will be the new majority leader - Obama will want a buddy from Illinois in there, like with everything else.

[Lunar]

Cuomo is a near certainty .  I think Durbin will have maybe a 70% at replacing Reid, while I think Reid has probably a 50-70% of losing reelection.  I disagree with the above poster, however, in that i think Obama also coming from Chicago will actually hurt Durbin's chances. 

What people might not get is that while Schumer is valued as a tactician, he is not particularly telegenic and Durbin is really good at what he does even if he's not always the best politician.  I think Schumer would be a far better majority leader, but I'm not sure if I trust the Democratic caucus to respect that.

We'll see. 

[emotional hardcore]

What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?

[Lunar]

What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?

2-4%?

I'm not sure.

[Lief 🐋]

Chance of Cuomo being the next governor: 99%

Chance of Schumer being the next majority leader= Chance of Reid losing (60%) * Chance of beating out Durbin (50%) = 30%

[nkpatel1279]

It will likely be
Governor Andrew Cuomo
Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin
Senate Majority Whip Chuck Schumer

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

I would support a majority Leader Dick Durbin too.

[emotional hardcore]

What percentage of the population knows:

A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?

2-4%?

I'm not sure.

I should also throw in a C: Really cares about either.

The idea that someone would vote against Obama and Democrats because both Obama and the Majority Leader are from the same state reminds me of "Dude, I heard that guy Pawlenty is from totally near this state!" (Probably not an exact quote but you get it.) Also Tom DeLay as the de facto House leader 2003-2005 (How many people know who Hastert was?) and for all the troubles the Republicans ended up with, having two people in such high positions from Texas wasn't one of them. Even on DU and whatnot I never heard anyone raving about how Texas was now ruling the rest of the country.

[Lunar]

um, I'm not really making any arguments here to rebut.  My inclination as of now is to say that Durbin being from Chicago hurts his odds more than helps it, not because of voters but because of the chattering class of D.C. reporters. 

Hell, how many voters actually knew what a public option is and opposed it?  And you saw how the Democratic caucus sawed out a particularly effective part of the bill.  Reality doesn't really seem to sway the Democratic caucus too much these days.

[emotional hardcore]

Durbin isn't from Chicago though anymore than Gillibrand is from New York City.

[Lunar]

Regardless, I'm not trying to come up with crazy predictive theories here.  Just noting one potential downside.  I think Durbin will get it over Schumer as of now. 

[nhmagic]

Durbin isn't from Chicago though anymore than Gillibrand is from New York City.

Everyone in that state is involved in the filth from Chicago though - including our own Aaron Schock, which is why I don't trust him at all.  They're grooming him.  That state has the view that God helps those, who help themselves.  Well they all help each other, whether republican or democrat.  Durbin will be majority leader - Im almost sure of it. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Cuomo as Governor. Still, Durbin is closer to be Dem leader.

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

Cuomo is going to be the next governor, the Dems will have the majority and unless something changes, Senator Reid will be majority leader. The votes may be split with the tea party candidate and Sue Lowden.

[Eraserhead]

Cuomo is going to be the next governor, the Dems will have the majority and unless something changes, Senator Reid will be majority leader. The votes may be split with the tea party candidate and Sue Lowden.

That isn't going to be enough to save Reid.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cuomo, obviously.

[Bo]

Cuomo is more likely. Schumer has the potential to face a strong challegne from Durbin, while Cuomo's election is assured.

[MR. KAYNE WEST]

The statement above was regarding my wishes to keep the senate seat in Democratic hands even if it is Harry Reid. Reid needs to improve his polls to aroujnd 50% to survive, at any rate we need a new Majority Leader.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Cuomo is more likely. Schumer has the potential to face a strong challegne from Durbin, while Cuomo's election is assured.

This. In fact, it's actually possible that Reid remains majority leader, assuming he's reelected. And even if he steps down or loses, Majority Leader Schumer isn't a sure thing because of Dick Durbin--in fact, if Reid steps down or loses, I'd actually give Durbin a slight advantage, given his current status as majority whip, as well as being from Illinois.

On the other hand, Cuomo's almost certain to become governor.

[Torie]

Cuomo is a near certainty .  I think Durbin will have maybe a 70% at replacing Reid, while I think Reid has probably a 50-70% of losing reelection.  I disagree with the above poster, however, in that i think Obama also coming from Chicago will actually hurt Durbin's chances. 

What people might not get is that while Schumer is valued as a tactician, he is not particularly telegenic and Durbin is really good at what he does even if he's not always the best politician.  I think Schumer would be a far better majority leader, but I'm not sure if I trust the Democratic caucus to respect that.

We'll see. 

You are not implying Lunar are you that you think Durbin is telegenic?