More Likely In 2010: Governor Cuomo or Majority Leader Schumer
nhmagic:
Cuomo becoming governor is far more likely. Durbin will be the new majority leader - Obama will want a buddy from Illinois in there, like with everything else.
Lunar:
Cuomo is a near certainty . I think Durbin will have maybe a 70% at replacing Reid, while I think Reid has probably a 50-70% of losing reelection. I disagree with the above poster, however, in that i think Obama also coming from Chicago will actually hurt Durbin's chances.
What people might not get is that while Schumer is valued as a tactician, he is not particularly telegenic and Durbin is really good at what he does even if he's not always the best politician. I think Schumer would be a far better majority leader, but I'm not sure if I trust the Democratic caucus to respect that.
We'll see.
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better:
What percentage of the population knows:
A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?
Lunar:
Quote from: sea of alcohol and pills on January 11, 2010, 03:24:42 AM
What percentage of the population knows:
A: Who the Majority Leader is
and
B: What state they are from?
2-4%?
I'm not sure.
Lief 🗽:
Chance of Cuomo being the next governor: 99%
Chance of Schumer being the next majority leader= Chance of Reid losing (60%) * Chance of beating out Durbin (50%) = 30%
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