What republican has the best chance to win Patty Murray's senate seat? (user search)
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March 28, 2024, 04:37:48 PM
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  What republican has the best chance to win Patty Murray's senate seat? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What republican has the best chance to win Patty Murray's senate seat?  (Read 13059 times)
Lunar
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« on: December 27, 2009, 02:22:17 AM »
« edited: December 27, 2009, 02:47:59 AM by Lunar »

Utah could end up being more competitive (but probably won't).

I'm not sure if this race is the top 20.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2009, 02:37:09 AM »

I believe Silver at 538 once did an analysis of this, but really I do not believe there is a significant advantage for rising-star Representatives to waiting before they run for higher office.  However, I'm pretty sure they universally have to win higher office first.

There are exceptions, neither Biden nor Obama were ever Representatives.  I think Biden had one of the lowest pre-Senate profiles in the Senate, forcing awkard comparisons to Ted Kennedy and Al Franken for who had the least qualifications before they ran.  
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2010, 01:11:09 AM »

Dino Rossi seems to be having some poll success.

Yet without his knowledge until after the poll hits the media.  A little unusual for luring candidates.
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2010, 01:12:58 AM »

I believe Silver at 538 once did an analysis of this, but really I do not believe there is a significant advantage for rising-star Representatives to waiting before they run for higher office. However, I'm pretty sure they universally have to win higher office first.

I think it depends.  If you're going to run for an open Senate seat it may not necessarily help to have a lot of years in the House.  If, however, you're going to challenge an incumbent, more years in the House may be helpful.  It all depends on who you're running against, and where.

Well, why would having more terms help you?  It just gives your opponents more votes and stated positions and speeches to pour through.  Maybe in years where Congress doesn't have record-low popularity, being an insider isn't as bad, but still, most of the advantages of being an insider come from institutional and fundraising support, not from the image of being an insider

In a partisan state like WA, in the current national climate especially, I see no real advantage to being a respected establishment Republican.  Well, there's that one, but besides him.
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