NKP 2010 US Senate Election Prediction.

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Seats.
Safe DEM seats (HI,IN,MD,NY-A,ND,OR,VT,WA,and WI) 9 seats.
DEM Favored. (CA,NY-B,)
Leans DEM (AR,DE,IL)
Tossup (CT,PA).
Leans REP. (CO,NV).
Lincoln-D wins AR due to Mike Beebe's coattails. The Whitehouse helps Biden Jr wins DE and  Giannoulias wins IL.  Regarding CT and PA.  If Dodd wins in CT it will be due to the help from the Whitehouse and the Democratic nominee for Governors's coattails.  If Dodd loses- it will be due to his own doing.  Dodd needs to pull a Torricelli and get replaced with Bluemanthal.  Regarding PA- we have a competitve Democratic primary and Republicans are favored to win the Governors Race. However- the current Toomey is too conservative for the voters of PA. Toomey needs to behave like the Congressman from PA-15 .
Republicans win CO and NV- due to Governor coattails and Reid's unpopularity.
Republican Seats.
Safe REP (AL,AK,AZ,GA,ID,IA,KS,OK,SC,SD,and UT)
REP Favored (LA)
Leans REP (FL,KY,NC)
Tossup (MO,NH,and OH).
Democrats wil pick up MO

[nkpatel1279]

As of now Democrats are in danger of losing AR,CO,CT,DE,IL,NV,and PA. I excluded ND because I doubt Hoeven(R) is running and NY-B- because neither Rudy or Pataki are not running.
Out of those Seats. Democrats will end up holding on to AR- Lincoln-D will benifit from coattails of the Governor Mike Beebe and Lt Governor Bill Halter and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel and the other Down ballot Statewide Democratic candidate races.  DE and IL due to help from the Obama- Biden Whitehouse.  That leaves us CO,CT,NV,and PA.  Democrats will probally hold on to CT and NV due to seniority and clout of Dodd and Reid. plus PA due to Specter's strength in the Philidelphia metro area.  CO is the only seat we lose. Bennett is an appointed freshman US Senator from a swing state. He has no coattails to rely on unlike Lincoln-AR, or Gillibrand-NY. 

Regarding the GOP seats Democrats will pick up. MO due to Carnahan's strength's and Blunt's weaknesses.  but it will similar to the McCaskill vs Talent race.  NH -Hodes will benifit from Lynch's coattails.  OH will be based on how Strickland does in the Governros Race. If Strickland wins- then Fisher wins. If Strickland loses than Portman wins.

[nkpatel1279]

Looking at the vulnerable Democratic incumbent US Senators facing re-election in 2010.
AR- Lincoln is the Gordon Smith-OR or Lincoln Chaffee-RI of 2010. Vulnerable because - represents a state that is unfriendly to National Democratic Party. however the local and State Democratic Party in AR is strong.
CO- Bennett is the John Sununu-NH, Norm Coleman-MN,or Jim Talent-MO of 2010- Vulnerable because- backbench member of a swing state- and a top tier challenger.
CT- Dodd is the Ted Stevens-AK of 2010- A Long Term Popular Democratic US Senator vulnerable the first time because of scandals. Dodd loses but it will be end up in a recount.
NV- Reid-  is the Conrad Burns-MT of 2010- A Senior US Senator who is vulnerable in previous election cycles but survives until now.