Dick Morris predicts that the GOP will gain BOTH the House and Senate in 2010

[The Duke]

I've been smacked around quite a bit because I've been saying we'll take the House in 2010.  I am a certified optimist about the GOPs chances in 2010.

But how in the hell do we retake the Senate?
I feel good about Nevada, Colorado, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Arkansas.  I feel okay about Illinois.  That's seven.  Where do the other 4 seats come from?  Dorgan gets swept away by the GOP tide in a wave election?  Evan Bayh loses to Hostettler?  Pataki suddenly decides to run against Gillibrand?  Are we counting on Chuck DeVore to be our 51st Senator?  Does he think Tommy Thompson has a secret plan to challenge Feingold?

I just don't get it.

[Sam Spade]

Dick Morris is an idiot on this one.

[Mr.Phips]

The architect of an underwhelming victory thanks to driving a large chunk of your own base away from the polls.
Something tells me he wasn't much better at that job than at predicting election results in this millennium.

Morris didnt help Clinton a bit in his reelection.  Clinton was smart not to take his advise in the budget showdown, but should not have signed Welfare Reform, especially after what the GOP did to him on healthcare.  Had he not signed that, Democrats probably would have won back the House in 1996.  

[Mr.Phips]

Dick Morris is an idiot on this one.

When is Morris NOT an idiot?  Apparently he got 1994 right the night before the election and to a lessor extent, 2006, but he got 1998, 2002, and 2008 completely wrong. 

[Sam Spade]

Dick Morris is an idiot on this one.

When is Morris NOT an idiot?  Apparently he got 1994 right the night before the election and to a lessor extent, 2006, but he got 1998, 2002, and 2008 completely wrong. 

Well, I wasn't rating his idiocy at present versus past situations, but you're generally right.

[nkpatel1279]

lets look at the Democrats seats. (AR,CA,CO,CT,DE,HI,IL,IN,MD,NV,NY,NY,ND,OR,PA,VT,WA,and WI) 18 seats. Out of the 18 seats. The following are safe or Dem Favored. (CA-Boxer trounces DeVore or Fiorina, HI-Inouye, IN-Bayh trounces Hostettler, MD-Mikulski, Both NY seats. Schumer and Gillibrand dont have any GOP opponents- Regarding Gillibrand- she will trounce King- If Pataki reconsider- I will move Gillibrand to the lean or Tossup category- which is highly unlikely. ND-Dorgan, OR-Wyden, VT- Leahy, WA-Murray, WI- Feingold- doubtful that Thompson runs. 11 are safe.  That leaves us 7 vulnerable seats.  (AR,CO,CT,DE,IL,NV,and PA). Out of those 7.  The following will remain in the Democratic collumn. (DE-Beau Biden-D narrowly defeats Castle-R. State leans Democrats- Biden is a much stronger candidate than Castle-R. IL- Alexi Giannoulias-D defeats Mark Kirk-R- State leans Democrats- Giannoulias will get alot of help from Obama Whitehouse- The Daley-Madigan-Hynes Machine. NV-Reid-D narrowly defeats whoever the GOP nominates- due to negative campaiging. PA- Specter-D narrowly wins due to huge support in the Philly Area- which offsets losses elsewhere.). The remaining 3 are likely to fall Republican (AR- Lincoln assuming 2010 is a pro GOP year. National Democratic party is highly unpopular in AR. CO- Bennett- due to lack of incumbency-voter are not fimiliar with Bennett.  and state being currently anti Democratic and Anti Obama. CT- Dodd due to high unfavorable rating, scandals and top tier GOP challenger.  2010 will be similar to 2002.

[nkpatel1279]

In 2002- 2 Democratic Incumbent US Senators lost- not including Torrecelli-NJ who was polling poorly due to ethics- dropped out and was replaced by Lautenberg-NJ who defeated the GOP nominee Forrester. Cleland-GA who lost due to negative campaigning by Saxby Chambliss-GA and GA realigning toward the Republican party.  and Carnahan-MO- appointed US Senator from swing state- facing a top tier Challenger.  Lincoln-AR is in a similar situation as Cleland-GA. AR like most of the Southern States are moving toward the Republican Party.  Bennett-CO is in a similar situation as Carnahan-MO- appointed US Senator from a swing state- Top tier challenger.  Dodd-CT is in a similar situation as Torrecelli-NJ- Dems lose in Dodd-CT stays in the race. If Dodd drops out and gets replaced by Bluemanthal or another Generic Democrat. Dems hold onto CT.
Democrats are going to pick up MO-(Carnahan-D defeats Blunt-R), likely pick up NH( Hodes-D defeats whoever the GOP nominates.), probally pick up OH (Fisher-D defeats Portman-R).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leans Democratic ND,PA,and IL
Tossups NV,AR,CT,DEL,CO,NH,MO, and OH

No way Dems lose the senate

Whichever way Arkansas goes so goes Missouri.

[Psychic Octopus]

The Moral of the Story, Kids, is Simple: DO NOT LISTEN TO DICK MORRIS.

[redcommander]

I wouldn't be so sure that Boxer will win next year. Tom Campbell is considering dropping his gubernatorial bid, and switching over to the senate race because of the weaknesses of DeVore and Fiorina. If he is the nominee, and receives a lot of financial help from the Silicon Valley and Bay Area donors that have been limited in the amount of donations to Whitman and Poizner, he could beat her. She would be extremely weak against him. He left congress before Bush came in, so she could not tie him to any congressional scandals under his administration. He is pro gay marriage and abortion, but also has one of the most fiscally conservative records of any recent Republican representative. He has close ties in the Bay Area, and could like Whitman or Poizner offset the chance of a Boxer or Brown landslide in the area. As I see it, and I am a Californian btw, Meg Whitman wins the Governorship, and Tom Campbell will win the Senate seat if he switches over. Too many people are assuming that voters will entrust a democrat legislature with an openly democrat governor. campbell.org I also do see the dems losing the senate along with the house.

Here are the Republicans I believe have the best chances of winning in some competitive and potentially competitive democrat held senate races.

Arkansas-Gilbert Baker
California-Tom Campbell
Colorado-Jane Norton
Connecticut-Peter Schiff
Delaware-Mike Castle
Illinois-Mark Kirk
Massachusetts-Scott Brown (Special Election in January)
Nevada-Danny Tarkanian
New York B-Maggie Brooks
North Dakota-John Hoeven
Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey
Washington-Kathy Lambert

Assuming Republicans hold all their open seats next year, they can take control of Senate by winning 11 of these races. It is possible, but it must come down to successful candidate recruitment.

[Sewer]

Meg Whitman wins the Governorship

lolololololol

[redcommander]

What is so funny about that? The dems are stuck with a decrepit loon who was an unsuccessful governor in the 70's, and is now a chronic office seeker like his pall John Garamendei. He isn't going to win, even with all the criticism that can be said about Meg. It is far too dangerous to put one-party control in a state on life-support, that will still have gerry-mandered politicians until the next redistricting, which wouldn't affect the political map of the state until at least 2012.

[Mr.Phips]

I wouldn't be so sure that Boxer will win next year. Tom Campbell is considering dropping his gubernatorial bid, and switching over to the senate race because of the weaknesses of DeVore and Fiorina. If he is the nominee, and receives a lot of financial help from the Silicon Valley and Bay Area donors that have been limited in the amount of donations to Whitman and Poizner, he could beat her. She would be extremely weak against him. He left congress before Bush came in, so she could not tie him to any congressional scandals under his administration. He is pro gay marriage and abortion, but also has one of the most fiscally conservative records of any recent Republican representative. He has close ties in the Bay Area, and could like Whitman or Poizner offset the chance of a Boxer or Brown landslide in the area. As I see it, and I am a Californian btw, Meg Whitman wins the Governorship, and Tom Campbell will win the Senate seat if he switches over. Too many people are assuming that voters will entrust a democrat legislature with an openly democrat governor. campbell.org I also do see the dems losing the senate along with the house.

Here are the Republicans I believe have the best chances of winning in some competitive and potentially competitive democrat held senate races.

Arkansas-Gilbert Baker
California-Tom Campbell
Colorado-Jane Norton
Connecticut-Peter Schiff
Delaware-Mike Castle
Illinois-Mark Kirk
Massachusetts-Scott Brown (Special Election in January)
Nevada-Danny Tarkanian
New York B-Maggie Brooks
North Dakota-John Hoeven
Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey
Washington-Kathy Lambert

Assuming Republicans hold all their open seats next year, they can take control of Senate by winning 11 of these races. It is possible, but it must come down to successful candidate recruitment.

No name Republicans are not winning in states like Washington, New York, and Massachussets.  Coakley will beat Brown by 20+ points.

[JerryBrown2010]

LOL the same guy that predicted this

[redcommander]

I wouldn't be so sure that Boxer will win next year. Tom Campbell is considering dropping his gubernatorial bid, and switching over to the senate race because of the weaknesses of DeVore and Fiorina. If he is the nominee, and receives a lot of financial help from the Silicon Valley and Bay Area donors that have been limited in the amount of donations to Whitman and Poizner, he could beat her. She would be extremely weak against him. He left congress before Bush came in, so she could not tie him to any congressional scandals under his administration. He is pro gay marriage and abortion, but also has one of the most fiscally conservative records of any recent Republican representative. He has close ties in the Bay Area, and could like Whitman or Poizner offset the chance of a Boxer or Brown landslide in the area. As I see it, and I am a Californian btw, Meg Whitman wins the Governorship, and Tom Campbell will win the Senate seat if he switches over. Too many people are assuming that voters will entrust a democrat legislature with an openly democrat governor. campbell.org I also do see the dems losing the senate along with the house.

Here are the Republicans I believe have the best chances of winning in some competitive and potentially competitive democrat held senate races.

Arkansas-Gilbert Baker
California-Tom Campbell
Colorado-Jane Norton
Connecticut-Peter Schiff
Delaware-Mike Castle
Illinois-Mark Kirk
Massachusetts-Scott Brown (Special Election in January)
Nevada-Danny Tarkanian
New York B-Maggie Brooks
North Dakota-John Hoeven
Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey
Washington-Kathy Lambert

Assuming Republicans hold all their open seats next year, they can take control of Senate by winning 11 of these races. It is possible, but it must come down to successful candidate recruitment.

No name Republicans are not winning in states like Washington, New York, and Massachussets.  Coakley will beat Brown by 20+ points.

They aren't no name republicans though. All three have a chance if they all decide to run and get their messages out there.

[Joe Republic]

Yeah, and I can fly unaided if I decide to do it and flap my arms really hard.

[J. J.]

Leans Democratic ND,PA,and IL
Tossups NV,AR,CT,DEL,CO,NH,MO, and OH

No way Dems lose the senate

Whichever way Arkansas goes so goes Missouri.

Three months ago I would have said "Impossible."  Today I'd say, "Highly improbable."

One thing I might look at, however, is the Bobby Byrd deathwatch.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Leans Democratic ND,PA,and IL
Tossups NV,AR,CT,DEL,CO,NH,MO, and OH

No way Dems lose the senate

Whichever way Arkansas goes so goes Missouri.

Three months ago I would have said "Impossible."  Today I'd say, "Highly improbable."

One thing I might look at, however, is the Bobby Byrd deathwatch.

If Byrd dies, Joe Manchin (who is still uber-popular, as far as I know) will appoint a placeholder then run himself. Shelley Capito might run, but she just might just run for Governor in 2012, since the Democrats don't have a clear successor (maybe the Lt. Governor/Senate President, but I don't know) and she obviously won't be fighting negative coattails for President.

[J. J.]

Leans Democratic ND,PA,and IL
Tossups NV,AR,CT,DEL,CO,NH,MO, and OH

No way Dems lose the senate

Whichever way Arkansas goes so goes Missouri.

Three months ago I would have said "Impossible."  Today I'd say, "Highly improbable."

One thing I might look at, however, is the Bobby Byrd deathwatch.

If Byrd dies, Joe Manchin (who is still uber-popular, as far as I know) will appoint a placeholder then run himself. Shelley Capito might run, but she just might just run for Governor in 2012, since the Democrats don't have a clear successor (maybe the Lt. Governor/Senate President, but I don't know) and she obviously won't be fighting negative coattails for President.

WV is one of those changing states that could go Republican.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

WV is one of those changing states that could go Republican.

Not really, no.  There are a lot of popular Democrats, and very few Republicans (popular or otherwise) currently holding office in that State.

[TeePee4Prez]

LOL the same guy that predicted this

Even I thought AR, TN, and WV were completely gone for Obama and LA as Tossup?  HAHAHAHAHAHA.  The only thing plausible is MS as a Lean R because of potential black turnout and the hopes a few college age whites would swing that state to Obama and even that state was more likely than LA.  His map is only slightly more plausible with Hillary Clinton.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He also had a very similar map during the presidential campaign when Kerry selected Edwards and the rule of thumb was that Edwards was going to help in TN, AR, and WV and NC.

[Stranger in a strange land]

LOL the same guy that predicted this

Even I thought AR, TN, and WV were completely gone for Obama and LA as Tossup?  HAHAHAHAHAHA.  The only thing plausible is MS as a Lean R because of potential black turnout and the hopes a few college age whites would swing that state to Obama and even that state was more likely than LA.  His map is only slightly more plausible with Hillary Clinton.

a few weeks before he'd been predicting a near-landslide for McCain because of Palin.

[Badger]

Dick Morris is an idiot on this one.

Corrected

[Badger]

I wouldn't be so sure that Boxer will win next year. Tom Campbell is considering dropping his gubernatorial bid, and switching over to the senate race because of the weaknesses of DeVore and Fiorina. If he is the nominee, and receives a lot of financial help from the Silicon Valley and Bay Area donors that have been limited in the amount of donations to Whitman and Poizner, he could beat her. She would be extremely weak against him. He left congress before Bush came in, so she could not tie him to any congressional scandals under his administration. He is pro gay marriage and abortion, but also has one of the most fiscally conservative records of any recent Republican representative. He has close ties in the Bay Area, and could like Whitman or Poizner offset the chance of a Boxer or Brown landslide in the area. As I see it, and I am a Californian btw, Meg Whitman wins the Governorship, and Tom Campbell will win the Senate seat if he switches over. Too many people are assuming that voters will entrust a democrat legislature with an openly democrat governor. campbell.org I also do see the dems losing the senate along with the house.

Here are the Republicans I believe have the best chances of winning in some competitive and potentially competitive democrat held senate races.

Arkansas-Gilbert Baker
California-Tom Campbell
Colorado-Jane Norton
Connecticut-Peter Schiff
Delaware-Mike Castle
Illinois-Mark Kirk
Massachusetts-Scott Brown (Special Election in January)
Nevada-Danny Tarkanian
New York B-Maggie Brooks
North Dakota-John Hoeven
Pennsylvania-Pat Toomey
Washington-Kathy Lambert

Assuming Republicans hold all their open seats next year, they can take control of Senate by winning 11 of these races. It is possible, but it must come down to successful candidate recruitment.

I will bet you $100 at 100 to 1 odds against Kennedy's old seat flipping. I'll give you even odds of the margin of victory being at least 20%.

Cut all these numbers in half and the same offer stands for Washington.

"Maggie Brooks"? What on earth makes you think she'll even beat Lazio in the primary?