Orange County, California: Rise and Fall (?) of a Conservative Bastion

[War on Want]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

Uhhh can you show where these trends and demographics are observable?

[Alexander Hamilton]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

And what is this based upon?

Lack of enthusiasm for John McCain, nationwide low Republican turnout, and the fact that Obama was able to get 48% in Orange County. How much clearer could it get?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd be careful about assuming inevitability over such things.

The electorate is getting browner with every passing year- not only because of minority growth, but because some white Republicans are leaving for places like Nampa, Idaho and Provo, Utah. I don't think this trend is going to reverse itself anytime soon.

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

If all remains equal, that's probably true. But as all never remains equal over a period of that length, I don't think 'inevitable' is justified. Possible, yes. An argument can be made for probable, but inevitable is asking too much.

[Sbane]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

First of all those small towns are not really representative of the Central Valley. If Republicans are bouncing back there (and I wouldn't be surprised since it got owned hardcore by the housing crisis) they will be doing better in the bigger cities. Secondly this does not explain how the suburbs of OC are going back to the Republicans. These areas are very well educated and well educated people are staying with the Democrats.

[dwkulcsar]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

[ag]

That's nice, but who cares?

Obama may or not carry the OC in 2012 (although, as others believe, I think he would, running against Huckabee or Palin), but a Democratic victory is "inevitable" in the near-future... within the next 20 years, at least.

Unless you believe that Orange County will start getting whiter (lol), I don't see how this doesn't happen.

Hispanics voted overwhelmingly Democratic in 2008 because of the housing and financial crises. That won't happen again. Plus, Hispanics are becoming more conservative on economics as they integrate in to the middle class here.

According to the last PPP Obama approval poll Latinos approve of his performance 74-21, compared to the overal 49-47. That is 25 points better than the national average. I don't think that judging how Democratic Latinos are based on one approval poll is a good idea but I have not seen a shred of evidence that suggests that Latinos are trending back towards the Republicans.

That was not a CA poll. CA is undergoing a transition, like NJ, where the suburbs and middle class and rural areas are moving back toward the Republicans. They trended left early (during the 90s) when the rest of the country moved right, and it is now being corrected. In fact, valley Hispanics in 2008 elected a white Republican over a Hispanic Democrat, giving the GOP their only pick-up in the state Assembly. Orange County may have trended hard left for 08 but it will return back home soon, along with San Diego and San Bernadino.

What is this based on?

Based on trends, demographics, the fact that Jim Costa can't even visit small farm towns anymore, and an overall GOP rebound in CA and nationwide.

Ok, let me rephrase What is the statement about trends and demographics is based on ?

(the rest, for the moment, we are not talking about: the original statement was conditional on Obama getting the same nationwide result as in 2008 - which may or may not happen, of course - so we can take out anything about national trends, and I want something better than anecdotes about congressmen).

[Sbane]

And...?

Orange County in 2008 was a fluke, much like Indiana was, but also we saw a very depressed Republican turn out in California, even with Proposition Eight on the ballot. 2012 will be more like 2004. Orange County will vote approximately 55% Republican in 2012.

Orange County did not have depressed turnout in this election so your turnout hypothesis is wrong. You are right about the the housing crisis, but let's not overstate it here. Obama did very well in places that weren't as impacted by the crisis. Republicans are quickly losing ground among the educated middle class and if that trend continues OC will fall into democratic hands. In southern California, the places Republicans will rebound in are the inland areas.

Depressed Republican turn out.

And what is this based upon?

Lack of enthusiasm for John McCain, nationwide low Republican turnout, and the fact that Obama was able to get 48% in Orange County. How much clearer could it get?

Was there really low Republican turnout in 2008? Remember that a lot of Republicans dumped their party and went independent during the fiasco that was the 2nd Bush term.

[Sbane]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

[Alexander Hamilton]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

He's referring to SD, which McCain did lose by a slim margin.

[War on Want]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

My town is filled with these annoyances.

I'm not sure what is worse old exburban/suburban Californians moving to my state or the white trash that lived here for years before.

[Sbane]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

Does OC really have a large veteran population? It may have been true once but I am not sure if that is so anymore. Remember a lot of older whites from California have been leaving the state for years. These people live in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho these days.

He's referring to SD, which McCain did lose by a slim margin.

Ah that makes sense. Of course SD has always had  liberal areas and the well educated areas went towards Obama this time. The 50th CD would be an example. The housing crisis factored in a bit also.

[dwkulcsar]

San Diego, Orange County. I just know thry have military sensibilities. I don't buy into this argument that the "perfect is the enemy of the good" idea with unhappy Republicans staying home or even voting for Obama.
This is madness in my opinion, McCain lost ground in these areas because of the capital Obama put into them, getting new voters out. The coolest thing about new voters is they keep coming fresh each cycle, not like old voters that tend to die off.
New voters are not necessarily "under 30" but can also be those new citizens. California does have more latinos across the board and this is a product of the last 20-30 years; we are seeing the products of this going to the voting booth. Its simply getting out the vote, I am certain that the idea of Republicans not being enthused about McCain is a misnomer, the ones that likely went for Obama resemble John Anderson or Lincoln Chafee.

[DemocratsVictory2008]

If Palin is the nominee in 2012, OC will go Democratic without a doubt. And I wouldnt say that suburban areas like NJ are trending Republican based on one election against an incumbent with a 35% approval. The GOP gained one seat in the state assembly (an open one!) despite Christie's victory

[pbrower2a]

So like, McCain an ex-Pow was not able to get a county with a large military veteran population? Explain this to me...

He was unable to appeal to the military veterans' kids and grand-kids.

Maybe the anti-intellectualism of Sarah Palin was the problem. Anti-intellectualism may be washed up in American politics. It turns off schoolteachers (one of the largest occupational groups) -- and it also turns off some ethnic groups that have a high regard for formal education. That's one way to lose the Jewish and Asian vote.

Prime example: Mexican-Americans. Maybe they aren't the first people that one associates with intellectualism, but the successful ones are well-educated. Those who aspire for something better for their children recognize education as the only viable preparation for anything other than poverty.  Pushers of creationism and other pseudoscience scare them.

[H. Ross Peron]

Unless Obama wins by a landslide or something Orange County will go Republican in 2012. I speak this is an OC resident: most people I know are Republican esp. Romney supporters. Also the Hispanic vote will recover from the aberration of 2008 and once again continue on the Republican path. Similarly with the Asians and silent majority. The only way this will not happen is if Obama becomes as good a President as FDR and so far that isn't.

[Хahar 🤔]

Unless Obama wins by a landslide or something Orange County will go Republican in 2012. I speak this is an OC resident: most people I know are Republican esp. Romney supporters. Also the Hispanic vote will recover from the aberration of 2008 and once again continue on the Republican path. Similarly with the Asians and silent majority. The only way this will not happen is if Obama becomes as good a President as FDR and so far that isn't.

Anecdotal evidence=bad.

[Inoljt]

Also the Hispanic vote will recover from the aberration of 2008 and once again continue on the Republican path.

When Republicans stop listening to Lou Dobbs, I will believe this.

[Torie]

McCain barely carried my rather rich (some parts very rich as one reaches the top of the hill) and WASP dominated precinct in OC, which has almost no Hispanics in it, and might be 10% Asian or so, and 5% Jewish, among those who voted.  That swing  was replicated in large part throughout my suburb, which while on average less rich, has about the same demographics. The sharp swing to Obama vis a vis Bush in OC had little to do with the Hispanic vote.  

[Sbane]

McCain barely carried my rather rich (some parts very rich as one reaches the top of the hill) and WASP dominated precinct in OC, which has almost no Hispanics in it, and might be 10% Asian or so, and 5% Jewish, among those who voted.  That swing  was replicated in large part throughout my suburb, which while on average less rich, has about the same demographics. The sharp swing to Obama vis a vis Bush in OC had little to do with the Hispanic vote. 

Well look at the swing in Santa Ana or the 47th district as a whole. Hispanics were certainly a key reason for the swing (remember Hispanics tend to fit in with their environment which would explain why they are more republican in OC), but the secular upper middle class was also an integral part of the swing.

[DariusNJ]

Obama losing OC by only 4 was astounding. It will not happen again in 2012, especially with the criticisms from conservatives and a large amount of independents concerning his government spending, healthcare, etc.

In a 50\50 election in 2012, the OC will vote Republican by 15 points or more.

[H. Ross Peron]

Also the Hispanic vote will recover from the aberration of 2008 and once again continue on the Republican path.

When Republicans stop listening to Lou Dobbs, I will believe this.

It was more economy than Lou Dobbs or Tom Tancredo or any other of the neo-Know Nothingers.