Neal K Patel's 2010 Midterm election Prediction (Governor,US Senator,US House)
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  Neal K Patel's 2010 Midterm election Prediction (Governor,US Senator,US House)
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Author Topic: Neal K Patel's 2010 Midterm election Prediction (Governor,US Senator,US House)  (Read 6374 times)
nkpatel1279
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« on: November 29, 2009, 02:53:49 PM »

2010 Governor.
Alabama- GOP Nominee-R
Alaska- Sean Parnell-R.
Arizona- Terry Goddard-D
Arkansas- Mike Beebe-D
California- Jerry Brown-D
Colorado-  Bill Ritter-D
Connecticut- DEM Nominee-D
Florida- Alex Sink-D
Georgia- John Oxendine-R
Hawaii- Neil Ambercrombie-D
Idaho- Butch Otter-R
Illinios- Democratic Nominee-D
Iowa- Chet Culver-D
Kansas- Sam Brownback-R
Maine- Democratic Nominee-D
Maryland- Martin O'Malley-D
Massachusetts- Deval Patrick-D
Michigan- Mike Cox-R
Minnesota- Democratic Nominee-D
Nebraska- Dave Heineman-R
Nevada- Brian Sandoval-R
New Hampshire- John Lynch-D
New Mexico- Diane Denish-D
New York- Andrew Cuomo-D
Ohio- Ted Strickland-D
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin-R
Oregon- John Kitzhaber-D
Pennsylvania- Tom Corbett-R
Rhode Island- Lincoln Chaffe-I
South Carolina- GOP Nominee-R
South Dakota- GOP Nominee-R
Tennessee- Zack Wamp-R
Texas- Rick Perry-R
Utah- Gary Herbert-R
Vermont- DEM Nominee-D
Wisconsin- Tom Barrett-D
Wyoming- Colin Simpson-R

DEM Loss- KS,MI,OK,PA,TN,and WY.
DEM Gain- AZ,CA,CT,FL,HI,MN,and VT.
IND GAIN- RI.
Other DEM Losses- CO,IA,ME,

Looking at the unpopular Democratic Governors running for re-election in 2010.
Paterson-NY is going to lose in the primary to Andrew Cuomo who is favored to win in the general election.
Patrick-MA is facing a 3 way general election campaign between a Generic Republican Nominee and a former Moderate DEM turned Independent- MA is a heavily blue state to re-elect Patrick.
O'Malley-MD represents a blue state and does not have any top tier GOP opponents other than Ehrlich who lost to O'Malley in 2006.
Quinn-IL is more vulnerable in the primary than in the general election.
Ritter-CO,Culver-IA,and Strickland-OH are unpopular Democratic Governors in battleground states. Ritter-CO and Culver-IA are trailing their GOP challengers while Strickland-OH is in a statistical tie.  Looking at highly populated battleground states like FL,MI,and PA. Republicans win MI due to bad economy and unpopularity of Jennifer Granholm- hurt John Cherry-MI.  Democrats will pick up FL- due to McCollum's extremism. Democrats can hold on to PA if Onorato or Hoeffel are the nominee.  Democrats will pick up open Republican seats in blue states. CA,CT,HI,MN,and VT plus AZ-Goddard. and hold on to open Dem seats in ME,NM,OR and WI. Democrats will lose open Governorships in Red states KS,OK,TN,and WY.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2009, 03:17:18 PM »

US Senate-
Alabama- Richard Shelby-R
Alaska- Lisa Murkowski-R
Arizona- John McCain-R
Arkansas- Blanche Lincoln-D
California- Barbara Boxer-D
Colorado- Michael Bennett-D
Connecticut- Chris Dodd-D
Delaware- Beau Biden-D
Florida- Charlie Crist-R
Georgia-Johny Isakson-R
Hawaii- Daniel Inouye-D
Idaho- Michael Crapo-R
Illinios- Alexi Giannoulias-D
Indiana- Evan Bayh-D
Iowa- Chuck Grassley-R
Kansas- Jerry Moran-R
Kentucky- Trey Grayson-R
Louisiana- David Vitter-R
Maryland- Barbara Mikulski-D
Massachusetts-1/2010- Martha Coakley-D
Missouri- Robin Carnahan-D
Nevada- Harry Reid-D
New Hampshire- Paul Hodes-D
New York-A -Chuck Schumer-D
New York-B- Kirsten Gillibrand-D
North Carolina- Richard Burr-R
North Dakota- Byron Dorgan-D
Ohio- DEM Nominee-(Fisher or Brunner-D)
Oklahoma- Tom Coburn-R
Oregon-Ron Wyden-D
Pennsylvania- DEM Nominee-D (Specter-D or Sestak-D)
South Carolina-Jim DeMint-R
South Dakota- John Thune-R
Utah- Robert Bennett-R
Vermont- Patrick Leahy-D
Washington- Patty Murray-D
Wisconsin-Russ Feingold-D

Dems will pick up MO,OH,and NH.- MO- Carnahan is a popular figure and a household name while Blunt-R is unpopular. In OH. Portman is more unpopular than Fisher and Brunner once Portman's record gets exposed. In NH- Hodes will benifit from Lynch's coattails and GOP front runner Kelly Ayotte getting Scafovozed.

Looking at the seats DEMS could lose. Lincoln-AR and Reid-NV have weak GOP opponents. IL(Giannoulias) and NY(Gillibrand) are too blue to elected a Republican to the US Senate. Joe Biden will help Beau in DE and Arlen or Sestak in PA. That leaves us CT and CO.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2009, 03:23:28 PM »

US House.
DEM GAIN
DE-AL,LA-2,IL-10,and PA-6.

DEM Loss.
FL-8(Grayson-D)
ID-1(Minnick-D)
KS-3(OPEN-Moore-D)
LA-3(OPEN-Melancon-D)
MI-7(Schauer-D)
OH-15(Kilroy-D)
VA-5(Perriello-D)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2009, 10:16:34 AM »

i take what you say more seriously now that you use your full name with middle initial
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2009, 03:32:16 PM »

Obama States- Strong.
1)CA- Governor(Brown-D), US Senator (Boxer-D).
2)CT- Governor(Byscweiz-D)- US Senator-(Too close to call).
3)DE- US Senator -SE(Biden-D)
4)HI- Governor(Ambercrombie-D), US Senator (Inouye-D)
5)IL- Governor(Quinn-D),-US Senator (Giannoulias-D).
6)ME-Governor(Too Close to Call).
7)MD-Governor(O'Malley-D), US Senator(Mikulski-D)
8)MA-Governor(Patrick-D),US Senator-SE(Coakley-D)
9)MI-Governor(GOP Nominee-R)
10)MN-Governor(DEM Nominee-D)
11)NV-Governor(Brian Sandoval-R)-US Senator (Too Close to Call)
12)NM-Governor(Diane Denish-D)
13)NY-Governor(Andrew Cuomo-D)US Senator (Schumer-D) US Senator-SE(Gillibrand-D)
14)OR-Governor(John Kitzhaber-D) US Senator (Wyden-D).
15)PA- Governor(Tom Corbett-R)- US Senator (Democratic Nominee-D)
16)RI- Governor (Lincoln Chaffee-I)
17)VT- Governor (DEM Nominee-D)- US Senator (Pat Leahy-D)
18)WA- US Senator (Patty Murray-D)
19)WI- Governor (Tom Barrett-D)- US Senator (Russ Feingold-D)

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2009, 03:47:39 PM »

Weak Obama States.
1)CO- Governor (Too Close to Call). US Senator (Too Close to Call)
2)FL- Governor (Too Close to Call.) US Senator (Charlie Crist-R)
3)IN- US Senator (Evan Bayh-D)
4)IA- Governor (Too Close to Call.) US Senator (Chuck Grassley-R).
5)NH-Governor (John Lynch-D). US Senator (Paul Hodes-D).
6)NC-US Senator (Richard Burr-R)
7)OH-Governor (Too Close to Call.) US Senator (Too Close to Call)
 McCain States.
Democrats will win the Governorships of
1)AZ- Goddard-D
2)AR- Beebe-D
US Senate Races in
1)AR- Lincoln-D)
2)MO- Carnahan-D)
3)ND- Dorgan-D)

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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2009, 03:51:43 PM »

Governor- Democrats will pick up AZ,CA,CT,HI,MN,and VT.  but lose- open seats KS,ME,MI,OK,PA,TN,and WY plus vulnerable incumbents in CO,IA,and possibly OH.
US Senator- Democrats will pick up MO,NH and maybe OH. maybe lose CT,CO,and NV.
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California8429
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« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2009, 07:29:42 PM »

Everyoe need stop thinking Ritter can pull a victory in 2010 because Colorado HATES him. Republican hate him. Independents hate him and Democrats are half asking for someone to challenge him.

He is a horrible Governor that doesn't Governor, wasted huge amounts of money on nothing, cut spending of education to unconstitutional levels to pay for his dumb expensive signs all over the stating saying Thank you governor ritter for putting america back to work.

He is an idiot in the Governor's mansion and takes zero risk which has destroyed Colorado because he doesn't actually govern! He gives the assignement to somebody else who screwes it up!
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dwkulcsar
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2009, 11:18:57 PM »

I love how all of you guys think Charlie Crist is a shoe in for US Senate, he will be taken to town from all sides...the GOP Base hates him, and Democrats won't vote for him anyways. In the House, Alan Grayson has alot of cash...hes not going anywhere.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2009, 04:33:27 PM »

Looking at which Democratic incumbent governor will lose re-election.
In the primary is David Paterson-NY to Andrew Cuomo-NY.
In the general is Ritter-CO and Culver-IA.
Democrats will lose open Governorships in KS,MI,OK,PA,TN,and possibly WY if open.
Democrats will pick up Governorships in AZ,CA,CT,MN,and VT. RI will be an IND pick up (Chafee).
Looking at which Democratic incumbent US Senator will lose re-election Dodd-CT,Bennett-CO,and Reid-NV. will lose in the general. Specter-PA loses in the primary. Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH.
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MArepublican
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« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2009, 06:06:48 PM »

I dont understand why you think New Hampshire will be such an easy pickup for the Democrats the Dem canidate isnt that strong and in all polling Kelly Ayotte has been leading.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2009, 06:46:24 PM »

Charlie Crist is a conservative that supports Democratic initatives. He supports Health care reform, he supported the stimulus.  And clearly supports environmental policies.

I think there isn't any room left for Meek to attach himself to the Obama initiatives.  Except for more gov't spending and regulation.  I think Floridans wants to slow the growth of gov't but likes some of it's programs.
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nkpatel1279
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« Reply #12 on: December 02, 2009, 01:01:01 PM »

I am assuming NH US Senate as a Democratic pickup for the following reasons.
First is Kelly Ayotte-R is in a tough primary against the Conservative candidate Ovide Lamontagne- who has support of the Sarah Palin/Doug Hoffman wing of the Republican primary. Ayotte-R will most likey lose in her Republican primary to LaMontagne- who will end up losing to Hodes-D in the general.
Second-assuming Ayotte-R wins her primary-. Hodes-D will benifit from Governor John Lynch's coattails
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