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  Talk Elections
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  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
#1
None
 
#2
1-4
 
#3
5-9
 
#4
10-17
 
#5
18-22
 
#6
23-44
 
#7
45 or more
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 40958 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,987
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« on: December 25, 2009, 09:45:27 pm »

I'd say 18 to 22. They will probably pick up around 5 and lose around 25, thus for a net loss of about 20.
Logged
Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,987
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2009, 03:24:32 pm »

Naturally, I'd say 25-35 seats could be expected, though not significant.  I'd say anything above 35, and you are entering re-alignment range.  The GOP doing better than 1994 is not out of the question.

Why did Phil leave this forum?
Just as the Bradley Effect costing Obama the election was not out of the question.

Well it wasn't. If you're attempting sarcasm, I'm failing to detect it Tongue

My general feeling is we're in a period (probably since 2006) where the controlling party, whichever one it is, will suffer huge losses after huge but short-lived gains in power.

I'm just mocking J.J.'s analysis, that's it.


Ah, ok.

Hey I'll also bring up the fact he thinks every House seat in PA from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia except Kanjorski will flip to the GOP.  I think I have my new Pennsylvania flame-war buddy now that Phil's gone.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,987
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2010, 05:00:45 pm »

I'd say 18 to 22. They will probably pick up around 5 and lose around 25, thus for a net loss of about 20.

I'd say 23-44 now.
Logged
Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,987
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2010, 05:15:41 pm »


What is your reasoning for this? That's even more than they lost in 1994, after they failed to pass healthcare reform.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,987
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2010, 05:39:55 pm »

Um. Intrade has it priced at around 60% that Democrats will lose the house. That puts the loss at more than 38 seats. How much more than 38 seats depends on what you think the shape of the average probability function across the traders on Intrade assign to their certainty of estimation.

Some wealthy Republicans might be putting a lot of money into odds that the GOP will win the House, though, thus making this odds higher on Intrade than they would have been otherwise.
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