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  How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Hows many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?
#1
None
 
#2
1-4
 
#3
5-9
 
#4
10-17
 
#5
18-22
 
#6
23-44
 
#7
45 or more
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 112

Author Topic: How many seats will the Democrats lose (net) in the House?  (Read 41060 times)
Sbane
sbane
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Posts: 14,846


« on: November 27, 2009, 08:31:02 pm »

As of right now 20-25 seats and this is probably the best case scenario for them. If they still fail to overcome Republican obstructionism and don't implement their agenda by 2010, expect closer to 40-50 seats to fall.
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Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,846


« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2009, 03:48:38 pm »

I'll say about 10-15. The GOP is still anathema in many parts of the country, any gains will have to come almost exclusively from the south.

Actually, they have real room for growth in the industrial Midwest and the Mountain West. The industrial Midwest is in decline, and they have mostly Democrats in office at the moment. In the Mountain West, there is lots of anger about growing federal power and government spending. The leadership of the GOP understands they need to run moderates, the base just has to start listening. Will they? I don't know.

How many seats is the Mountain west really? They will probably lose that Idaho seat and that New Mexico seat as well as CO-4. But for it to be a real wave election and for the Republicans to take over congress they would need to win AZ-5, NV-3, CA-11. At this moment I don't see them winning either of them. But if health care doesn't pass, or the economy worsens, all bets are off. The democrats may have lost a lot of support in exurban/rural west but the good news for them is that not a lot of people live there.
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