Had Pataki decided to run for re-election in 2006 against Elliot Spitzer- He would have lost re-election- Pataki did not recieve more than 50% of the popular vote against any of his Democratic opponents. Mario Cuomo was pretty unpopular in 1994. Vallone-1998 and McCall-2002- were weak candidates. Gillibrand is a much stronger opponent than Mario Cuomo was in 1994. and Vallone and McCall.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_gubernatorial_election,_1998