2009 Nassau County Election

[cinyc]

Nassau was tallying votes today, they were expected to finish the recount today around 4 (no word yet on if they did or not, or if anything has changed from this morning.  The counts of the absentee ballots, as well as paper ballots are expected next week.

As far as any trend, one thing to keep in mind (though I can speak more for here in Nassau than Westchester or Dutchess) is that turnout was very low.  Turnout was off somewhere along the lines of 17% or so from 2005, and the biggest drops were in the Democratic leaning areas.

Low turnout among Democrats is part of that trend (and fairly uniform throughout the suburbs, IIRC).  The party's incumbent candidates weren't exciting Democrats enough to turn them out.   Republicans were more motivated.  If that trend continues, 2010 will look like a bloodbath.  Republicans could retake control of the State Senate and have a remote possibility of upsetting Gillibrand.

[Smash255]

Nassau was tallying votes today, they were expected to finish the recount today around 4 (no word yet on if they did or not, or if anything has changed from this morning.  The counts of the absentee ballots, as well as paper ballots are expected next week.

As far as any trend, one thing to keep in mind (though I can speak more for here in Nassau than Westchester or Dutchess) is that turnout was very low.  Turnout was off somewhere along the lines of 17% or so from 2005, and the biggest drops were in the Democratic leaning areas.

Low turnout among Democrats is part of that trend (and fairly uniform throughout the suburbs, IIRC).  The party's incumbent candidates weren't exciting Democrats enough to turn them out.   Republicans were more motivated.  If that trend continues, 2010 will look like a bloodbath.  Republicans could retake control of the State Senate and have a remote possibility of upsetting Gillibrand.

I highly doubt that especially with the likely factor that Cuomo and Schumer will both top the ticket.  As far as the State Senate goes, the only districts that were even remotely close last year were seats currently held by the GOP (6th & 11th)

[Smash255]

Both Newsday and the LI Press are reporting that Mangano's lead is up to 497 after the machines have been recanvassed.  The absentee count will start on Monday.

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/11/mangano-up-497-votes-against-suozzi/

[MSG]

clearly mangano has hired frankens vote finders cause there doing just as good of job at stealing this clear cut victory from its rightful hands.

On a serious note it sucks that such a depressed turnout will oust a good guy like souzzi i was hoping he would have a bright future in the 3rd district of new york congressional representation.

[Smash255]

clearly mangano has hired frankens vote finders cause there doing just as good of job at stealing this clear cut victory from its rightful hands.

On a serious note it sucks that such a depressed turnout will oust a good guy like souzzi i was hoping he would have a bright future in the 3rd district of new york congressional representation.

If anything this might increase his chances of taking on King.  He had statewide ambitions and was thrown around as a likely candidate for AG if Cuomo were to run for Gov. (which is likely), now his statewide chances like took a bit of a hit, and Nassau DA Kathleen Rice likely has much more of a chance at getting the AG nod than Suozzi.  I still think his chances at running against king are very slim, but likely a little better now with the AG slot becoming much less likely.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

note to Lunar:  Good luck, especially if they're in power.

[Sam Spade]

I still don't believe Sam Spade doesn't see a wave here.  Republicans just didn't take control of the Nassau County Legislature and (likely) County Exec.  They won the Westchester County Exec race, control of Dutchess and Ulster county legislatures, Poughkeepsie Common Council, Stamford mayor, and a slew of ultra-local races in suburban NYC.  There's a tax revolt brewing, and it can't bode well for incumbents who depend on the Working Families party - a.k.a. the SEIU.

Sometimes a tax revolt turns into a wave, but sometimes not.  Until I get evidence these types of results are occurring at a federal level, I wouldn't get excited.

That being said, I would watch out if I was a State Senator/Assemblyman in any of the NYC suburbs.  Waves can be on a local level and not involve national politicians.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wait, so the Democrat was leading election night and now the Republican is leading? If that was the other way around, this would be termed a stolen election by the die-hard Republicans. Of course, not a peep from them now.

[Sam Spade]

clearly mangano has hired frankens vote finders cause there doing just as good of job at stealing this clear cut victory from its rightful hands.

On a serious note it sucks that such a depressed turnout will oust a good guy like souzzi i was hoping he would have a bright future in the 3rd district of new york congressional representation.

If anything this might increase his chances of taking on King.  He had statewide ambitions and was thrown around as a likely candidate for AG if Cuomo were to run for Gov. (which is likely), now his statewide chances like took a bit of a hit, and Nassau DA Kathleen Rice likely has much more of a chance at getting the AG nod than Suozzi.  I still think his chances at running against king are very slim, but likely a little better now with the AG slot becoming much less likely.

Don't know why he want to possibly commit career suicide by going after King if he does in fact lose this election.  Might possibly blow up his career permanently.  Of course, that might end up happening also were he to run for statewide office and lose again.

Of course, he has tried to commit career suicide before, so who knows.

[Mr.Phips]

clearly mangano has hired frankens vote finders cause there doing just as good of job at stealing this clear cut victory from its rightful hands.

On a serious note it sucks that such a depressed turnout will oust a good guy like souzzi i was hoping he would have a bright future in the 3rd district of new york congressional representation.

If anything this might increase his chances of taking on King.  He had statewide ambitions and was thrown around as a likely candidate for AG if Cuomo were to run for Gov. (which is likely), now his statewide chances like took a bit of a hit, and Nassau DA Kathleen Rice likely has much more of a chance at getting the AG nod than Suozzi.  I still think his chances at running against king are very slim, but likely a little better now with the AG slot becoming much less likely.

Don't know why he want to possibly commit career suicide by going after King if he does in fact lose this election.  Might possibly blow up his career permanently.  Of course, that might end up happening also were he to run for statewide office and lose again.

Of course, he has tried to commit career suicide before, so who knows.

Where else would he go?  Its not like he has anything to lose. 

[Sam Spade]

clearly mangano has hired frankens vote finders cause there doing just as good of job at stealing this clear cut victory from its rightful hands.

On a serious note it sucks that such a depressed turnout will oust a good guy like souzzi i was hoping he would have a bright future in the 3rd district of new york congressional representation.

If anything this might increase his chances of taking on King.  He had statewide ambitions and was thrown around as a likely candidate for AG if Cuomo were to run for Gov. (which is likely), now his statewide chances like took a bit of a hit, and Nassau DA Kathleen Rice likely has much more of a chance at getting the AG nod than Suozzi.  I still think his chances at running against king are very slim, but likely a little better now with the AG slot becoming much less likely.

Don't know why he want to possibly commit career suicide by going after King if he does in fact lose this election.  Might possibly blow up his career permanently.  Of course, that might end up happening also were he to run for statewide office and lose again.

Of course, he has tried to commit career suicide before, so who knows.

Where else would he go?  Its not like he has anything to lose. 

But if you lose this race when no one thought you would and then get beaten in a Dem primary or against King, your future political career is probably nil. 

For that matter, just losing this race would damage his political career enormously in the short term.

Btw, looking at how King has performed during the 2006 and 2008 elections against pretty strong headwinds (well, not as much 2008), and considering the present configurations of his district, I think he would be a long shot, at best.

We'll see.

[Smash255]

clearly mangano has hired frankens vote finders cause there doing just as good of job at stealing this clear cut victory from its rightful hands.

On a serious note it sucks that such a depressed turnout will oust a good guy like souzzi i was hoping he would have a bright future in the 3rd district of new york congressional representation.

If anything this might increase his chances of taking on King.  He had statewide ambitions and was thrown around as a likely candidate for AG if Cuomo were to run for Gov. (which is likely), now his statewide chances like took a bit of a hit, and Nassau DA Kathleen Rice likely has much more of a chance at getting the AG nod than Suozzi.  I still think his chances at running against king are very slim, but likely a little better now with the AG slot becoming much less likely.

Don't know why he want to possibly commit career suicide by going after King if he does in fact lose this election.  Might possibly blow up his career permanently.  Of course, that might end up happening also were he to run for statewide office and lose again.

Of course, he has tried to commit career suicide before, so who knows.

Where else would he go?  Its not like he has anything to lose.  

But if you lose this race when no one thought you would and then get beaten in a Dem primary or against King, your future political career is probably nil.  

For that matter, just losing this race would damage his political career enormously in the short term.

Btw, looking at how King has performed during the 2006 and 2008 elections against pretty strong headwinds (well, not as much 2008), and considering the present configurations of his district, I think he would be a long shot, at best.

We'll see.

I don't think its likely, was just throwing the idea out there, especially since his statewide prospects are dimmed quite a bit.  2012 would be the best year to take on King, because barring any big surprises next year the district will obviously be a bit more Democratic.  The question is, would three years out of the picture be too long?  Statewide his chances took a major hit.  If he wants to stay involved in politics (barring an appointment of some sort) it would likely either be a challenge to King or a challenge to State Senator Carl Marcellino (5th SD).   

 Also as I stated earlier, regarding Mejias, if he does lose, I would think he goes for the State Senate and takes on Kemp Hannon in the 6th SD.  Hannon barely held on last time (was the 2nd closest race in the state winning by less than four to Kristen McElroy)

[Lunar]

If you want to take down a sitting Congressmen, it's usually not too bad to make a couple runs at the seat, happens all the time.

[Smash255]

If you want to take down a sitting Congressmen, it's usually not too bad to make a couple runs at the seat, happens all the time.

I generally agree, though in most of those cases, the candidate wasn't all that well known the first time around.  That obviously isn't the case with Suozzi.  With that being said if he loses next year, but is close, the fact that he would likely have a more Democratic district to work with in 2012 could help alleviate some of the damage.

[Lunar]

I agree, and that's a great point how Suozzi doesn't need to build up much of a political infrastructure or name recognition. 

However, it would give him a platform to hammer away at King for an extra two years.

[Progressive]

Any recount updates ?

[cinyc]

Any recount updates ?

The local NYC TV news said Mangano's lead is about 500 votes - which is pretty much what we heard yesterday.  The claimed reason for the discrepancy was errors in adding a minor party line's tally to Mangano's overall count in some precincts (just like what appears to have happened in NY-23, fwiw, except there Scozzafava (R) seems to have been misallocated votes cast for Hoffman (C)). 

Did Nassau use the old lever machines this election or some newfangled machinery?

[Progressive]

Any recount updates ?

The local NYC TV news said Mangano's lead is about 500 votes - which is pretty much what we heard yesterday.  The claimed reason for the discrepancy was errors in adding a minor party line's tally to Mangano's overall count in some precincts (just like what appears to have happened in NY-23, fwiw, except there Scozzafava (R) seems to have been misallocated votes cast for Hoffman (C)). 

Did Nassau use the old lever machines this election or some newfangled machinery?

Yes, the same level machines.

[MSG]

ultimately i was thinking of 2012 because if souzzi got reelected he should at least stay around for a few years and hopefully the district would be more favorable. If he was to run against king in 2010 he would have to start almost immediately thus he would not really do anything to the position he was elected.  It fine to run for higher office but at least do something with the job you were elected to.

[Smash255]

ultimately i was thinking of 2012 because if souzzi got reelected he should at least stay around for a few years and hopefully the district would be more favorable. If he was to run against king in 2010 he would have to start almost immediately thus he would not really do anything to the position he was elected.  It fine to run for higher office but at least do something with the job you were elected to.

If Suozzi was re-elected (provided it was the margin he was expected to win by) King wouldn't really have been a thought, either Lt Gov or AG would have been the likely scenario.  Now both of them are likely out of the picture with perhaps Rice becoming the new favorite for the AG slot.

[Smash255]

Update  Mangano is currently up by 459.  8,102 Absentee and Affidavit ballots still need to be counted

[Lunar]

Is anyone glad Susie is losing?

[cinyc]

Is anyone glad Susie is losing?

Silly question.  

Yeah, Republicans like me who'd love to see the NY Democratic Party's next great hope go down in flames.  

If Suozzi loses, Republicans will control the County Execs in Nassau, Westchester, Rockland, Putnam and Orange Counties, and endorsed the mayor of NYC.  A Republican would head the executive branch of every New York county/NYC government in the Greater NYC area save Suffolk County.  (No, borough president figureheads don't count).  Quite a feat for a party that's been left for dead in the Northeast.  That the loss was unexpected is icing on the cake.

Do you really expect that everyone on this website idolizes Democrats?

[patrick1]

[cinyc]

According to Newsday, Mangano's lead has inched up to 554.  536 of the more than 8,000 absentee and affidavit ballots were opened and counted today.  An unknown number were objected to.

Mangano's lead is up from what Newsday claims was the final machine count from last week, 459.  If that's correct, Mangano won today's absentees by 95 votes, something like 315-220, or 59%-41%.

We don't know from which precincts the votes came or the partisan breakdown of the ballots objected to, but this doesn't look good for Suozzi. 

Newsday also reported that there are a total of 7,165 absentee ballots and 927 affidavit ballots.  It's unclear whether any of the affidavit ballots were counted today.