2009 Nassau County Election

[Smash255]

Two Election District left outstanding.  1 from Town of Oyster Bay, 1 from Town of Hempstead.  Both are in Mejias's district.

    COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,135 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   107,612
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,723
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,591   117,926
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   112,015
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,516   117,531
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,532

    COUNTY COMPTROLLER
       1,135 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   103,476
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,395
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,839   114,710
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    98,301
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,843   115,144

  COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          55 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     6,033
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       629
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       286     6,948
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     5,834
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C     1,022     6,856

[Smash255]

Absentee Ballots will need to be counted, and 3 recounts seem assured.  The remaining two precincts were Republican ones

Suozzi up 227
             COUNTY EXECUTIVE
       1,137 EDS COUNTED     1,137 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          D   107,777
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          I     6,735
 THOMAS R SUOZZI                          W     3,599   118,111     48.10%
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         R   112,340
 EDWARD P MANGANO                         X     5,534   117,874    48.01%
 STEVEN HANSEN                            C               9,552                3.89%

Maragos up 576

HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        D   103,646
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        I     7,405
 HOWARD S WEITZMAN                        W     3,846   114,897     49.88%
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           R    98,581
 GEORGE MARAGOS                           C    16,892   115,473         50.12%

Belesi up 28

 COUNTY LEGISLATOR 14TH DISTRICT
          57 EDS COUNTED        57 EDS IN RACE
   CANDIDATE NAME                      PARTY  RESULTS   CANDIDATE TOTAL

 DAVID L MEJIAS                           D     6,219
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           I       641
 DAVID L MEJIAS                           W       296     7,156   49.90%
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          R     6,112
 JOSEPH V BELESI                          C     1,072     7,184  50.10%

As someone who is a stronger supporter of Mejias, and have been involved in the campaign, really disappointed, however one thing to note Mejias did increase his lead last time once absentee ballots were included.

[Sam Spade]

Honestly, I'm really surprised at this results (not necessarily Mejias, which was close last time).

But then again, I did vote for Thompson, so maybe it makes some sense.

[Smash255]

Honestly, I'm really surprised at this results (not necessarily Mejias, which was close last time).

But then again, I did vote for Thompson, so maybe it makes some sense.

Looking at some of the other results I think it was a combination of ant-incumbent and low turnout.  Turnout in this case was just terrible.    Granted he will increase his total somewhat once the absentee's are counted, but right now Mangano has less than 4,000 more votes than what Greg Peterson had in 2005 (Peterson was the GOP challenger) and Suozzi won that race by 21 points.  Turnout seems to be off almost 20% from 05. 

[Smash255]

A recount will start on Monday which could last till the 27th.  Absentee ballots will be counted starting on the 10th.  All absentee ballots must be postmarked by the 2nd and received by the 10th so far 7,100 absentee ballots have been returned out of the 12,331 mailed.  450 absentee ballots are expected in the 14th LD, (the race between Mejias & Belesi)

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/04/suozzi-still-leads-mangano-recount-begins-next-week/

[patrick1]

A recount will start on Monday which could last till the 27th.  Absentee ballots will be counted starting on the 10th.  All absentee ballots must be postmarked by the 2nd and received by the 10th so far 7,100 absentee ballots have been returned out of the 12,331 mailed.  450 absentee ballots are expected in the 14th LD, (the race between Mejias & Belesi)

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/04/suozzi-still-leads-mangano-recount-begins-next-week/

So what do you think on the recount, Smash?  This really caught me by surprise.  I sensed some anger at Suozzi but from the usual suspects.  Well  anger does turn people out to vote more than apathy and I dont think it sat well with many that Suozzi was using this as a stepping stone. 
 

[Smash255]

A recount will start on Monday which could last till the 27th.  Absentee ballots will be counted starting on the 10th.  All absentee ballots must be postmarked by the 2nd and received by the 10th so far 7,100 absentee ballots have been returned out of the 12,331 mailed.  450 absentee ballots are expected in the 14th LD, (the race between Mejias & Belesi)

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/04/suozzi-still-leads-mangano-recount-begins-next-week/

So what do you think on the recount, Smash?  This really caught me by surprise.  I sensed some anger at Suozzi but from the usual suspects.  Well  anger does turn people out to vote more than apathy and I dont think it sat well with many that Suozzi was using this as a stepping stone. 
 

I am really surprised, by the results, pretty much everyone thought this would be a double digit cakewalk.  The fact that right now Mangano has less than 4,000 more votes than Peterson did in 05 shows how much turnout was off, and looking at the total votes in the various Leg districts, it looks like the Democratic heavy districts are the ones with the largest drop off from 05. 

As far as the recount, its hard to say, and the absentees without knowing from where or the party affiliation of those ballots.  Even though the Dems have a registration advantage in Nassau, I would bet anything that turnout on election day favored the GOP by several points at least, and the GOP will probably need something like a 5 point enrollment advantage on the absentee ballots to have much of a chance.  Barring the recount having anymore than small changes for either side, Mangano would need to win the absentees by 2% if the absentee ballots wind up around 12,000.

Based off recent elections IIRC in which the official numbers wound up being slightly more Democratic than announced on Election Night, I think Suozzi will hold on and perhaps Mejias will prevail as well, but with turnout being down so much its hard to really say.  The one district where turnout doesn't seem off nearly as bad as the others is the 14th (which is my LD).  Where the downturn in turnout really seems to have had the largest impact was the Kopel/Toback race in the 7th LD.  Kopel won with 900 fewer votes than Toback's 2005 opponent Katz, and Toback won that race by 9 points.  Granted absentee ballots aren't added yet, but that would likely be no more than 400-500 votes total between the two of them.

[paul718]

I really hope that jerk Mangano loses after tormenting me with that commercial for 4 weeks.

"Can you believe Tom Suooooozzi?  He must think we're stupid."

[Mr.Phips]

How Democratic do absentees usually lean in Nassau?

[Smash255]

Ugggh the crap is starting already, no link due to needing a subscription to view the site, but according the Newsday the current GOP minority leader (and soon to be Majority leader) has already started handing out huge raises to 5 members of his  staff including Joe Mondello's son in law...

[Smash255]

How Democratic do absentees usually lean in Nassau?

IIRC Obama's margin last year as well as Suozzi's margin in 05 & Mejias's margin in 07 increased slightly after the initial count on Election Day.   Considering the horrid Dem turnout, not sure if that has any relevance this time around.  I have read on a LI board that the GOP has approx 550 edge in enrollment out of the 7,100 absentee ballots that were returned so far.  Those who states that said they have connections to the BOE, but without any links to back that up you really have no clue if it was someone who was legit or completely talking out of their ass.   Even if that 550 total is correct, its hard to say if it helps the GOP.  The Dems do have an enrollment advantage of 37.97-36.33, but based off turnout it looks like the GOP had a several point advantage on those who turned out on Election Dau.

[Smash255]

According to Newsday unofficial recanvassing Suozzi's lead is down to 107.  This is just a part of the recanvass and not part of the recount which has started today.  The absentee count starts tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ugggh the crap is starting already, no link due to needing a subscription to view the site, but according the Newsday the current GOP minority leader (and soon to be Majority leader) has already started handing out huge raises to 5 members of his  staff including Joe Mondello's son in law...

lolnassaurepublicans

[Smash255]

Update

According to the LI Press, Mangano took a 24 vote lead after the 1st day of recounting yesterday, and Newsday was reporting a Mangano lead of 39 as of 11 am.  The areas that have been recounted so far is the 14th LD (though no word on the Mejias/Belesi race) as well as Long Beach, and Suozzi's hometown of Glen Cove.  The 14th LD is generally a Republican area, while Long Beach and Glen Cove are Democratic.  The absentees also lean GOP according to the Long Island Press.

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/10/mangano-leads-suozzi-after-first-day-of-recount/


Obviously, this is not good for Suozzi, however keep in mind 2000 Florida's recount (after the Supreme COurt involvement when the media looked at it after the fact)  Gore performed better in the recount in the GOP areas of the state than he did in the Dem core areas of Broward and Palm Beach.  Also while the absentees lean GOP, it doesn't say by how much.  Dems have a little over a 1 point enrollment advantage in the county, but Election Day turnout clearly favored the GOP.  So the question is, is the advantage the GOP have with the absentee ballots stronger or weaker than what they had on Election Day.  The other question is, when were the ballots filled out?  Those that were filled out a few weeks before Election Day likely favors Suozzi, those filled out closer to Election Day will likely have a similar breakout that Election Day had.

[cinyc]

Update

According to the LI Press, Mangano took a 24 vote lead after the 1st day of recounting yesterday, and Newsday was reporting a Mangano lead of 39 as of 11 am.  The areas that have been recounted so far is the 14th LD (though no word on the Mejias/Belesi race) as well as Long Beach, and Suozzi's hometown of Glen Cove.  The 14th LD is generally a Republican area, while Long Beach and Glen Cove are Democratic.  The absentees also lean GOP according to the Long Island Press.

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/10/mangano-leads-suozzi-after-first-day-of-recount/


Obviously, this is good for Suozzi, however keep in mind 2000 Florida's recount (after the Supreme COurt involvement when the media looked at it after the fact)  Gore performed better in the recount in the GOP areas of the state than he did in the Dem core areas of Broward and Palm Beach.  Also while the absentees lean GOP, it doesn't say by how much.  Dems have a little over a 1 point enrollment advantage in the county, but Election Day turnout clearly favored the GOP.  So the question is, is the advantage the GOP have with the absentee ballots stronger or weaker than what they had on Election Day.  The other question is, when were the ballots filled out?  Those that were filled out a few weeks before Election Day likely favors Suozzi, those filled out closer to Election Day will likely have a similar breakout that Election Day had.

How can losing the lead, even when Suozzi's hometown was included in the recount, be good for Suozzi?

[Smash255]

Update

According to the LI Press, Mangano took a 24 vote lead after the 1st day of recounting yesterday, and Newsday was reporting a Mangano lead of 39 as of 11 am.  The areas that have been recounted so far is the 14th LD (though no word on the Mejias/Belesi race) as well as Long Beach, and Suozzi's hometown of Glen Cove.  The 14th LD is generally a Republican area, while Long Beach and Glen Cove are Democratic.  The absentees also lean GOP according to the Long Island Press.

http://www.longislandpress.com/2009/11/10/mangano-leads-suozzi-after-first-day-of-recount/


Obviously, this is good for Suozzi, however keep in mind 2000 Florida's recount (after the Supreme COurt involvement when the media looked at it after the fact)  Gore performed better in the recount in the GOP areas of the state than he did in the Dem core areas of Broward and Palm Beach.  Also while the absentees lean GOP, it doesn't say by how much.  Dems have a little over a 1 point enrollment advantage in the county, but Election Day turnout clearly favored the GOP.  So the question is, is the advantage the GOP have with the absentee ballots stronger or weaker than what they had on Election Day.  The other question is, when were the ballots filled out?  Those that were filled out a few weeks before Election Day likely favors Suozzi, those filled out closer to Election Day will likely have a similar breakout that Election Day had.

How can losing the lead, even when Suozzi's hometown was included in the recount, be good for Suozzi?

Oops meant to say not good for Suozzi, fixed it.

[Progressive]

Mangano has increased his lead to about 104 votes.

He will win this election, unfortunately. It seems inevitable. Even fewer machines are left to count, and Mangano's lead continues to slowly increase.

Will he or won't he win?

[Smash255]

Mangano has increased his lead to about 104 votes.

He will win this election, unfortunately. It seems inevitable. Even fewer machines are left to count, and Mangano's lead continues to slowly increase.

Will he or won't he win?

Newsday is reporting the lead is up to 430 .  Still have the absentees to count, but this looks bad.

[Lunar]

I liked Suozzi, he seemed like a very competent administrator with a good future.  That's too bad.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting.

[Lunar]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

[Smash255]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

The sad thing is the GOP was successful on this at basically lying to the voters.  Compare and contrast the tax increases in the county taxes to the Town taxes over the past few years specifically Oyster Bay and Hempstead which the GOP controls.

[Progressive]

Any news on the 4pm vote tally?

[cinyc]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

Which puts suburban Democrats at odds with their most important constituency - municipal employee unions.  It's the ultimate wedge issue for local Democrats.

I still don't believe Sam Spade doesn't see a wave here.  Republicans just didn't take control of the Nassau County Legislature and (likely) County Exec.  They won the Westchester County Exec race, control of Dutchess and Ulster county legislatures, Poughkeepsie Common Council, Stamford mayor, and a slew of ultra-local races in suburban NYC.  There's a tax revolt brewing, and it can't bode well for incumbents who depend on the Working Families party - a.k.a. the SEIU.

Any news on the 4pm vote tally?

Is Nassau tallying votes on a state and federal holiday?

[Smash255]

Interesting.

note to 2010 suburban Democrats: promise to lower property taxes

Which puts suburban Democrats at odds with their most important constituency - municipal employee unions.  It's the ultimate wedge issue for local Democrats.

I still don't believe Sam Spade doesn't see a wave here.  Republicans just didn't take control of the Nassau County Legislature and (likely) County Exec.  They won the Westchester County Exec race, control of Dutchess and Ulster county legislatures, Poughkeepsie Common Council, Stamford mayor, and a slew of ultra-local races in suburban NYC.  There's a tax revolt brewing, and it can't bode well for incumbents who depend on the Working Families party - a.k.a. the SEIU.

Any news on the 4pm vote tally?

Is Nassau tallying votes on a state and federal holiday?

Nassau was tallying votes today, they were expected to finish the recount today around 4 (no word yet on if they did or not, or if anything has changed from this morning.  The counts of the absentee ballots, as well as paper ballots are expected next week.

As far as any trend, one thing to keep in mind (though I can speak more for here in Nassau than Westchester or Dutchess) is that turnout was very low.  Turnout was off somewhere along the lines of 17% or so from 2005, and the biggest drops were in the Democratic leaning areas.