NYC Mayoral Election 2009

[Tender Branson]

I have seen that there's no thread about it so far. From Wiki:

"The New York City mayoral election of 2009 is scheduled to occur on Tuesday, November 3, 2009. The winning candidate will serve from January 1, 2010 until December 31, 2013.

On October 23, 2008, the New York City Council voted to extend the city's term limits, permitting the current Mayor, Michael Bloomberg—a political independent who had been elected as a Republican in 2001 and 2005—to run for a third term. Attempts to put this decision to a popular referendum, to reverse it in the Federal courts or to override it with state legislation were unsuccessful.

Bloomberg's opponent is Democratic and Working Families Party candidate Bill Thompson, the current New York City Comptroller. In the party primary elections of September 15, 2009, Bloomberg was unopposed for the Republican and Independence Party nominations, Thompson was unopposed for the Working Families Party nomination, and Stephen Christopher was unopposed for the Conservative Party nomination. In the contested Democratic primary, Thompson won 71% of the 331,000 votes, City Councilman Tony Avella of Queens 21%, and Roland Rogers 8%. Six other parties' candidates and several independents will also contest the general election in November."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_mayoral_election,_2009

Recent polls can be found here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/other/ny/new_york_mayor_bloomberg_vs_thompson-1083.html

Bloomberg Sets Record for His Own Spending on Elections

By MICHAEL BARBARO and DAVID W. CHEN
Published: October 23, 2009

Michael R. Bloomberg, the Wall Street mogul whose fortune catapulted him into New York’s City Hall, has set another staggering financial record: He has now spent more of his own money than any other individual in United States history in the pursuit of public office.

Newly released campaign records show the mayor, as of Friday, had spent $85 million on his latest re-election campaign, and is on pace to spend between $110 million and $140 million before the election on Nov. 3.

That means Mr. Bloomberg, in his three bids for mayor, will have easily burned through more than $250 million — the equivalent of what Warner Brothers spent on the latest Harry Potter movie.

The sum easily surpasses what other titans of business have spent to seek state or federal office. New Jersey’s Jon S. Corzine has plunked down a total of $130 million in two races for governor and one for United States Senate. Steve Forbes poured $114 million into his two bids for president. And Ross Perot spent $65 million in his quest for the White House in 1992 and $10 million four years later.

“I have never seen anything like this — it’s off the charts,” said Jennifer A. Steen, a lecturer in political science at Yale who has studied self-financed candidates for the last decade. “He’s in a league of his own.”

Mr. Bloomberg has used his wealth, estimated at $16 billion, to establish what appears to be insurmountable financial dominance in the race.

He has spent at least 14 times what his Democratic rival in the race, William C. Thompson Jr., has: $6 million. A Thompson campaign spokeswoman on Friday called the mayor’s spending “obscene.”

Since late September, the pace of Mr. Bloomberg’s spending has drastically accelerated: He is now sending nearly $1 million a day into the city’s economy. The bulk of the money is devoted to advertising on television, radio and the Web, but much of it bankrol ls a first-class approach to parties, snacks and travel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/24/nyregion/24mayor.html

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, I was kind of wondering where it was...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Of course, if this were a Hollywood movie, Thompson, the loveable underdog, would come from behind and beat Bloomberg at the last minute.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Once fascist Mayor Bloomberg successfully strong-armed his way to overturning voter-approved term limits, it become apparent there wasn't going to be much of a race this year. Bloomberg considers himself to be above the will of the people.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Once fascist Mayor Bloomberg successfully strong-armed his way to overturning voter-approved term limits, it become apparent there wasn't going to be much of a race this year. Bloomberg considers himself to be above the will of the people.

Yeah this is pretty much my opinion of the race.

[cinyc]

Of course, if this were a Hollywood movie, Thompson, the loveable underdog, would come from behind and beat Bloomberg at the last minute.

NYC is not Hollywood.  Bloomberg's winning reelection - by double digits.

[Vepres]

Once fascist Mayor Bloomberg successfully strong-armed his way to overturning voter-approved term limits, it become apparent there wasn't going to be much of a race this year. Bloomberg considers himself to be above the will of the people.

Or, maybe it's because term limits are inherently arbitrary and Bloomberg has received strong approval from people on all sides of the aisle. The New York Times endorsed him recently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The aisle in municipal politics may not be quite the same thing as the aisle in normal politics.

---

Of course, Bloomberg is very likely to win (though by less than last time). Though, as I've written before, there have been enough anti-incumbent swings in municipal elections lately (including the City Council primaries in New York) to make a hilarious freak upset just about possible. Though not likely, of course. But someone has to mention it, just it case

If we head into the world of fantasy outcomes, I'm not sure whether I'd prefer Bloomberg to lose or to win by a humiliatingly low margin. Hmm.

[Mechaman]

Once fascist Mayor Bloomberg successfully strong-armed his way to overturning voter-approved term limits, it become apparent there wasn't going to be much of a race this year. Bloomberg considers himself to be above the will of the people.

Yeah this is pretty much my opinion of the race.

[Eraserhead]

New York is far too clean these days.

[Jacobtm]

New York is far too clean these days.

New Jersey is always an option.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Quinnipiac poll:

Michael Bloomberg (R): 53%
William Thompson (D): 35%
Stephen Christopher (C): 3%

Bloomberg (R): 63% Favorable, 29% Unfavorable
Thompson (D): 39% Favorable, 23% Unfavorable
Christopher (C): 2% Favorable, 8% Unfavorable

Mayor Bloomberg leads 81 - 10 percent among Republicans and 61 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Democrats split with 46 percent for Bloomberg and 44 percent for Thompson, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Christopher gets 5 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of independent voters, with 0 percent of Democrats.

White voters back Bloomberg 59 - 30 percent, while black voters support Thompson 57 - 24 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 49 - 35 percent. Black voters have the highest undecided percentage, 18 percent.

The Mayor leads in every borough, from 50 - 33 percent in The Bronx to 59 - 27 percent in Staten Island. He leads 53 - 35 percent among men and 52 - 34 percent among women.

.....

From October 23 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,088 New York City likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1302.xml?ReleaseID=1388

[bgwah]

Oh, those poor voters, being forced to re-elect Bloomberg...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Last time round polling got Bloomberg's percentage about right, but overstated his lead. FWIW.

---

Apparently Dov Hikind is voting for Thompson. LOL.

[cinyc]

Of course, Bloomberg is very likely to win (though by less than last time).

I think Bloomberg's margin is going to be close to 2005.  In 2005, he beat Freddy Ferrer by a little over 19 points - 58.38%-39.01%.  That sounds about right this time, too.  Bloomberg has plenty of money to run an effective GOTV organization.  Thompson, not so much.

[Lunar]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

if I was to do a particular academic study of polling, this sort of phenomenon would be interesting to look at.  I doubt 10% of the population really has an opinion on the guy, I mean, it'll probably be hard enough to find 10% of the population that even really cares about Thompson.

[Holmes]

God. Why is Bloomberg spending $100 per vote? Why not just send that money to me?

[Tender Branson]

New polls:

SUSA: 53-42 Bloomberg
Marist: 53-38 Bloomberg

"Thomspon's campaign released an internal poll last night claiming the race was a statistical tie, but every single independent poll shows Bloomberg with a solid lead."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/30/poll_shows_bloomberg_on_his_way_to_third_term.html

[Eraserhead]

Thompson should grab the lion's share of the undecided vote. Hopefully that will makes things interesting for a little while on Tuesday.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm looking forward, as always, to lower-level result breakdowns.

[Progressive]

Not to sound like a crazy Democratic idealist or anything- but- I feel that Thompson will do MUCH better than the polls indicate. I feel that a lot of the undecideds will break for Thompson and that a lot of Democrats will at the polling booth see Bloomberg's name under Republican, and be very turned off. It's happened before in city races (I live in nyc) where a Republican was expected to do nicely or even win and has lost.

[Meeker]

SUSA decided to poll the race again (twice in four days) and got:

Bloomberg: 52% (-1)
Thompson: 43 (+1)

BIG MO' FOR THOMPSON!

[Lunar]

I think the final expenditures will show Bloomberg injected maybe 115 million dollars of his money into the NYC economy via his campaign, while Thompson something more like 8 million

[Meeker]

Bloomberg's $ per vote number will indeed be very interesting.

FTR, in 2005 the number was $113 per vote. Meaning Bloomberg would've been better off just handing out $100 bills to voters on election day.

[Progressive]

I am not saying that Thompson will necessarily beat Bloomberg, but a combination of controversy from term limits, inflated school grades, and Bloomberg's outrageous spending on the campaign will hurt him. Additionally, most of the undecideds will split to Thompson. This race could in fact come down to the wire.