1980: Ford v. Kennedy

[hcallega]

This has probably been discussed before, but what if Gerald Ford decided to run in 1980 against Reagan, and narrowly defeats him. On the Democratic side Kennedy wins as initially projected. Anderson decides not to run because of his similar views to Ford's.

Discuss with maps.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Need some more details before making a map.

Does Kennedy defeat Carter in the '80 primary or is Ford the incumbent?

[hcallega]

Need some more details before making a map.

Does Kennedy defeat Carter in the '80 primary or is Ford the incumbent?

Kennedy defeats Carter and Ford upsets Reagan.

[CPT MikeyMike]

With hcallega clarifying it....

Ford wins the nomination and selects Bob Dole again as his running mate.

Kennedy selects Dale Bumpers as his running mate.

The campaign goes down to two things that help Ford.  One, despite Kennedy's lack of association with Carter, Ford makes the argument that "had he won in '76, we wouldn't have this mess in '80." Second argument, which is probably more effective, is --  Chappaquiddick. This dooms Kennedy in the end.

Ford wins. He does better in the popular vote than Reagan generally due to no third party.

Ford/Dole: 371 EV 53% PV
Kennedy/Bumpers: 167 EV 46% PV

[Bo]

With hcallega clarifying it....

Ford wins the nomination and selects Bob Dole again as his running mate.

Kennedy selects Dale Bumpers as his running mate.

The campaign goes down to two things that help Ford.  One, despite Kennedy's lack of association with Carter, Ford makes the argument that "had he won in '76, we wouldn't have this mess in '80." Second argument, which is probably more effective, is --  Chappaquiddick. This dooms Kennedy in the end.

Ford wins. He does better in the popular vote than Reagan generally due to no third party.

Ford/Dole: 371 EV 53% PV
Kennedy/Bumpers: 167 EV 46% PV

I agree with this map.