Castle is IN!!!

[nkpatel1279]

For more than 30 years. DE has been represented by Bill Roth-R,Joe Biden-D,Mike Castle-R and Tom Carper-D.
Roth-R served as AT Large US Represenatative 1966-1970, US Senator- 1970-2000-until he lost re-election to Tom Carper-D.
Biden-D served as US Senator from 1972-2008 until he became Vice President.
Carper-D seved as At Large US Representative 1982-1992,Governor-1992-2000,-US Senator since 2000.
Castle-R served as Governor of DE- 1984-1992. He switched positions with Carper-D He got elected to At large US House Seat in 1992- served their ever since.
This race will be similar to the Roth-Carper race in 2000. Both candidates are popular statewide elected officials but Biden wins due to Castle's age and poor health. Biden Jr's margin of victory will be similar to Carper's margin of victory in 2000 over Bill Roth.

[nkpatel1279]

Mike Castle's advantage is high name recognition and statewide electoral experience. Castle has been elected to Statewide office in DE 12 times. 1 times as Lt governor 1980, 2 times as Governor-1984/1988. After being term limited in 1992- He ran for the At large US House Seat. which is basically a third US Senate Seat in DE. no available US Senate Seat in the 1990's since Roth and Biden were extremely popular. In 2000- Carper-D who was finishing his second term as Governor decided to run for US Senate against Roth-who was in aging health. Carper defeated Roth by a 55-45 percent margin. Castle served in the US House ever since. This is the first time in 10 years a US Senate Race in DE has been competitive.
Regarding Seniority. (Lincoln-AR,Bennett-CO,Kaufman-DE,LeMieux-FL,Burris-IL,Brownback-KS,Bunning-KY,Bond-MO,Gregg-NH,and Voinovich-OH are likely to leave office January 2011.
The 2010 DE US Senate Race is a special election which means who ever wins will be sworn in as soon as the results are certified. Beau Biden or Mike Castle will be number 91 in seniority. Beau Biden will have greater time to build up his seniority than Castle who will serve no more than 10 years in the US Senate.

[nkpatel1279]

The 2010 US Senate Races is similar to the 1998 US Senate Races.
In 1998- the NRSC recruited Republican US House Members in Democratic leaning swing districts such as John Ensign-NV,Linda Smith-WA,and Mark Neuman-WI to run for US Senate challenging Democratic incumbents Reid-NV,Murray-WA,and Feingold-WI. Murray-WA won by a landslide margin. Reid-NV and Feingold-WI won by a tiny margin. Both won re-election in 2004 by a double digit margin. Feingold-WI will win by a comfortable margin in  2010. Reid will face a tough race. Ensign-NV and Smith-WA old US House seats went Democratic. Ensign-NV,Smith-WA and Neuman-WI were part of the 1994 GOP class and were likely to lose in 1998.
Castle-DE was facing a tough challenge in US House against former Lt Governor John Carney. or US Senate against Beau Biden. Castle decided to run for the US Senate this year because this is last time he ever gets a chance of running for the US Senate- US Senate races in DE are rarely competitive. Regarding Kirk-IL- He would have survived in 2010 but in 2012- when Obama is on the ballot or redistricting- Kirk would have lost.

[nkpatel1279]

Castle is also facing a primary challenge against the Religous Right wing nut job Christine O'Donnell.

[nkpatel1279]

Castle has never faced a tough Statewide election in his political career.
He was first elected Lt Governor in 1980-along with Governor Pete DuPont-R who was running for re-election defeating a local State Senator by a 59-40 percent margin. He was elected Governor in 1984 by a 55-45 percent margin defeating a former Delaware Supreme Court Judge. re-elected in 1988 by a 71-29 percent margin against a sacrificial lamb challenger. After being term limited as Governor- Castle-R decided to run for the At Large US House Seat-Tom Carper-D was vacating to run for Governor in 1992. Castle was elected to the US House defeating SB Woo a former LT Governor by a 55-43 percent margin. During Castle's 1994,1996,1998,2000,2002,2004,2006,and 2008 re-election campaigns- Castle's Democratic challengers were sacrificial lamb challengers who have not recieved between 25-40 percent of the popular vote.
Beau Biden-D is a more formidable opponent than SB Woo was. and DE is more Democratic than it was in 1992.

[nkpatel1279]

The 2010 DE US Senate Race is a Special Election. whoever wins has to face re-election in November 2014.  Mike Castle-R if elected will serve 4 years in the US Senate and retire in 2014 when his term expires. Beau Biden-D has two choices- He can run for re-election as Attorney General. He will win re-election by a landslide margin due to high name recognition and incumbency advantage. In 2014 when Castle-R decides to retire from the US Senate. Beau Biden-D will be the front runner for that seat.  He can run for the US Senate. If he runs- Biden will have to win or lose narrowly. If he loses narrowly He can run again in 2014. If he loses badly- than John Carney-D will be the standard bearer in 2014.

[nkpatel1279]

Statewide in DE- We have a Democratic governor- Jack Markell-D who was elected in 2008. Markell-D will win re-election in 2012 and leave office in 2016 due to term limits. Lt Governor- Mark Denn-D who was elected in 2008- will win re-election in 2012 and run for Governor in 2016. Democratic State Insurance Commissioner,Treasurer,and Attorney General-Beau Biden-D and Republican Auditor-Tom Wagner. US Senators- Tom Carper and Ed Kaufman who is leaving office in 2008. and At Large US House- is held by Republican Mike Castle-R who is running for US Senate.
John Carney-D is going to win the open At Large US House Seat Mike Castle-R is vacating. and lets say Mike Castle-gets elected to the US Senate and Biden Jr seeks re-election as Attorney General in 2010. In 2012- Governor Markell and US Senator Tom Carper both win re-election by a landslide margin. In 2014- Castle-R will retire. Biden will run for the US Senate- and win. Carney-D will wait until 2018 to run for US Senate-assuming Carper-D retires or remains in the US House.

[nkpatel1279]

Castle-R is the semi incumbent in the 2010 DE US Senate Race- He has won 11 high profiled Statewide elections in DE. 2 times as Governor and 9 times as Congressman from the At Large US House District- which is a Statewide position. Castle is basically the 3rd US Senator from DE. Beau Biden-D is a novice in electoral politics. He won one statewide election- DE Attorney General- in 2006 against a veteran State Prosecutor. DE Attorney General position is a second tier Statewide election. Beau Biden-D has ties with the Obama-Biden Whitehouse. His father-VP Joe Biden- represented DE as a US Senator for 36 years. DE is a blue state which went for Obama by a 62-37 margin. Castle-R will need to win 100% of the McCain voters plus 25% of the Obama voters.

[nkpatel1279]

Mike Castle- won his first statewide election in 1980 as Lt Governor against a fellow State Senator- by a 59-40 margin. He benefited from Ronald Reagan and Pete DuPont Coattails. He was elected Governor- in 1984 by a 55-45 margin against a former Supreme Court Judge. The 1984 DE Governors Race was basically a third term for Pete DuPont. Castle won re-election in 1988 by a 71-29 percent margin against a sacrificial lamb candidate. Barred from running for another term. Castle decided to run for the At large DE US House Seat- Tom Carper was vacating to run for Governor. Castle's Democratic opponent was SB Woo- a former Lt Governor who unsuccessfully challenge Bill Roth in 1998. Castle defeated Woo by a 55-43 percent margin. In 1994 and 1996- against Sacrificial lamb opponents- Castle was re-elected with 70+% of the popular vote. In 1998 and 2000 against Sacrificial lamb opponents-Castle was re-elected with more than 65% of the popular vote. 2002- 72%. 2004= 69% in 2006-a pro Democratic Year- Castle won by a 57-39 percent against a sacrificial lamb opponent. Castle won re-election in 2008 by a 61-38 percent margin against a sacrificial lamb opponent. Beau Biden- who won his first Statewide elected office in 2006 DE Attorney General by a 53-47 percent margin against a fellow US Attorney is a much stronger opponent than SB Woo. This race will be based on which candidate can energize their base to the polls.