What state will be the biggest surprise on election night?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's a suprise?
Hell to some people here, the "enemy" winning would be a suprise...

Elections are not like Chess y'know

[Silent Hunter]

We don't know. That's why it's a surprise.

The ultimate surprise IMO, is CA going Bush or TX Kerry.

[Erc]

We don't know. That's why it's a surprise.

The ultimate surprise IMO, is CA going Bush or TX Kerry.

Well if you want to take that tack...the ultimate surprise is DC for Bush or UT for Kerry (hey, electoral-vote predicted that...)

[A18]

The ultimate surprise will be not having to wait a month to figure out who won

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a possible one: Kerry wins San Diego county.

[The Vorlon]

Florida by a much larger margin than expected

Bumping up one of my few "good" predictions so I can gloat

[Beet]

Florida was a total anomaly this year. Some counties showed a more than 10% surge for Bush. While Bush lost ground or didn't improve much in urban areas in other southern states, he actually improved his margins in Broward and Palm Beach. Bush took Pinellas! Two possible explanations:

1) Jeb / Hurricanes

2) GOP ground game

[??????????]

Florida was a total anomaly this year. Some counties showed a more than 10% surge for Bush. While Bush lost ground or didn't improve much in urban areas in other southern states, he actually improved his margins in Broward and Palm Beach. Bush took Pinellas! Two possible explanations:

1) Jeb / Hurricanes

2) GOP ground game

Kerry had almost no noticable ground game whatsoever here. I know of no campaign HQ in the Tampa Bay area for Kerry.

[Sam Spade]

I am willing to bet even money that Kerry/DNC/unaffiliated ground groups bet all of their money on doing what Gore did in 2000:  bringing out people on the SE Gold Coast.

It's one of the reasons why I always predicted Florida would be +2-3% of Bush's national average.

When you looked at VAP/RV turnout from 2000, you discovered some interesting numbers.  In the Gold Coast turnout was about 7-8% higher in 2000 than it was in the Panhandle and SW Florida, along with the various suburbs of other cities (the Bush strong areas).

Based on that, I figured that if Bush could get turnout levels to where the Dems were in 2000, he would gain roughly 200,000 votes or 2%.  I also figured it would be very hard for Kerry to push turnout levels much higher than Gore did (they were already pushing their limits in 2000).

Turns out that I was right:

Broward:
2000 RV% 64.8%
2004 RV% 66.8%

Palm Beach:
2000 RV% 66.0%
2004 RV% 74.6%

Miami-Dade:
2000 RV% 69.7%
2004 RV% 73.2%

Add that to the fact that in Broward and Palm Beach, Bush made large inroads in the Jewish retiree population and things were a wash from 2000.  Even if Kerry had maintained Gore-like percentage, he wouldn't have added more than 100,000 votes.

Compare this to the best largest Bush counties in terms of numbers:

Duval
2000 RV% 62.5%
2004 RV% 74.0%

Escambia
2000 RV% 68.3%
2004 RV% 75.5%

Hillsborough
2000 RV% 72.2%
2004 RV% 74.6%

Lee
2000 RV% 72.9%
2004 RV% 78.9%

Add to that the Bush counties are growing the fastest in Florida as well and I really have a hard time seeing Florida as a perennial toss-up state as long as the GOP has a good ground game.  It's hard to get 3 counties to overcome so many others.

[Rococo4]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

id say my picks were wrong....BUT NOT AS WRONG AS MYPALFISH

[??????????]

Sam,

You are correct. Jeb Bush himself back in 2002 said that Northern/Central Florida still holds the ability to outvote Miami/Dade and carry the state for Republicans. He was proven right as was I.

[Beet]

Sam,

You are correct. Jeb Bush himself back in 2002 said that Northern/Central Florida still holds the ability to outvote Miami/Dade and carry the state for Republicans. He was proven right as was I.

I still can't get over how badly Kerry did in Florida. Sure, Bush's margin over Kerry there was 5% better than his margin over Gore, while nationally it was only 2.5% better. But also, Florida represents the future, while the other main battleground, for example Ohio, represents the past. The fast-growing white suburbs of central Florida represent the foundation of the Clinton majorities of the 1990s and the only glimmer of a possible Democratic majority in the wake of the collapse of the New Deal. Without winning in this crucial region, no Democrat can win nationally. Quite early in the campaign, Kerry was being outspent 2-1 in Florida on the airwaves; even though nationally his spending was nearly on par at that time. This is difficult to understand.

Plus you have the fact that Castor, while losing, made it much closer than Kerry did and actually won Hillsborough county... she would have won the entire state if Miami-Dade had not gone heavily to Martinez... just because his name was Martinez.

On the state legislature however, it looks worse. While state legislatures were supposed to be a bright spot for Dems in 2004, in Florida it was not. In 2002, there were 81 Republicans elected to the State House versus 39 Democrats, more than a 2-1 margin. There were 26 Republicans in the State Senate compared to 14 Democrats. This year, the State House has become 84-36 while the State Senate has stayed the same. State legislatures are were parties are supposed to draw talent and new recruits for future candidacies; hence they are critical for the future of state parties.

Also, they draw Congressional districts. Florida is one of the most gerrymandered states in the nation. Its delegation is 18 Republicans to 7 Democrats, whereas proportional with the presidential vote should be 13-12, or five more Democrats. While the Texas Congressional delegation is lopsided by 21-11, Bush won 60% of the popular vote there, so about 19 seats probably should be GOP. In this view, Florida is 2 1/2 times more gerrymandered than Texas.

If Democrats want a national majority, Florida is still critical. But their performance in statewide and state legislative election is nothing short of atrocious.