Alternate US States

[nerd73]

Out of curiosity, what was the exact margin in Erie?

[nerd73]

Preliminary guesses (not really ranked in order of competitiveness between states in the same category):

Pacific: Safe D, almost certain to be D vs D if OTL California primary system is kept
Chicago: Safe D
Maryland: Safe D
New York: Safe D
Massachusetts: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Safe D
New England: Safe D
Rio Grande: Safe D, if it was a Clinton midterm it would be more interesting
Michigan: Safe D/Likely D, pretty much the same as OTL
Wisconsin: Likely D, pretty much the same as OTL
California: Lean D/Tilt D, as long as Democrats can keep their gains from 2016
Nevada: Tilt D/Tossup, pretty much the same as OTL
Lincoln: Tossup, could move to Lean D or Lean R depending on the candidate
South Florida: Tossup, I have no idea how this one will go.
North Florida: Tossup, Bill Nelson could be in serious trouble here, but generally he does pretty well with Dixiecrats
Indiana: Tossup/Tilt R, the lack of Gary in the north pushes Indiana somewhat to the right, making re-election harder for Donnelly. Still winnable for Democrats though.
Allegheny: Lean R/Likely R, Rick Santorum is pretty far-right and a Conor Lamb-style Democrat could make this race close, but Allegheny's partisan lean probably allows Republicans to pull it out in the end
Ohio: Likely R, can't really see Democrats flipping this seat, but they held it as late as 2013, and they can't be completely counted out.
Texas: Likely R/Safe R, again, can't really see Democrats flipping this, seems significantly more Republican than OTL texas.
Jefferson: Safe R, nothing to see here.

States that are the same as OTL were not included in these ratings. Tell me if I missed anything.

[nerd73]

My guess for the results:



Indiana: Donnelly is toast.
Lincoln: Given Tester only narrowly hanged on with the OTL map and how badly Heitkamp lost, it seems reasonable to think that Lincoln's Class 1 seat flips.
North Florida: Given that Scott is leading with the OTL map with South Florida, can't see the Republicans losing North Florida.
South Florida: Although Republicans overperformed here, Scott's very narrow margin statewide (and the Republican win in North Florida) probably means this seat flips blue.
California: This is difficult to guess given that there was no D-R election in OTL California, but I'd guess Democrats would narrowly pick it up.
Allegheny: RicK Santorum wins re-election probably by high single digits/low double digits.