OBD
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,570
Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2021, 07:00:55 PM » |
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Here's some potential congressional districts for the states of Erie and Ohio. Some analysis for this redraw:
Erie
In 2010, a (albeit reduced) Democratic trifecta redrew the lines in Erie once again, creating six safe seats for their representatives while drawing a sink for lone GOP representative Jim Renacci. And, despite extremely unfavorable trends over the decade, the Erie Democrats managed to hold most of these seats (with Tim Ryan's narrow 2-point loss in 2020 the sole). However, redistricting in Erie is now in the hands of an independent commission for the first time in the state's history. The map it drew is significantly less favorable to the Democrats - 5 of 6 districts now lean to the right of the nation. In particular, Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown) has been placed into an extremely bad situation for a comeback, now representing a Trump+11 seat. With the retirement of Dennis Kucinich (D-Lakewood) of the 3rd District, the Erie Democrats have dodged the bullet of a double-incumbent primary, but must now defend three incumbents in marginal seats.
Ohio
Once again, the Republicans are in firm control of redistricting in the Buckeye State. In 2010, they drew a ruthless gerrymander leaving Joyce Beatty of Cleveland as the sole Democratic representative. This year, they refined this gerrymander, adjusting for the lost seat and the retirement of Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington). Every non-Columbus seat is now at least Trump+15, with Democratic trends tampered through cracking with Ohio's extremely Republican rural areas. Barring the sudden acceleration of said trends, a 8-1 delegation appears extremely likely to hold for the decade.
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