Alternate US States

[Calthrina950]

Wow. I've just spent the entire evening reading all of this. This thread is amazing and so detailed. Congrats on the great work.

[Calthrina950]

Out of curiosity, what was the exact margin in Erie?

Here are the full results:

Hillary 50.01%
T***p 44.74%
Johnson 2.95%
Others 2.31%

That's a margin of 5.27, which means a PVI of 3.18 (the lowest ever for all the elections I have data for).

@JG: That's a fair point, although I'm not sure she invested as much into Pennsylvania and Ohio as she should have.

Trump, if I am not mistaken, is the first Republican in a long while to come within single digits in Erie.

[Calthrina950]

Out of curiosity, what was the exact margin in Erie?

Here are the full results:

Hillary 50.01%
T***p 44.74%
Johnson 2.95%
Others 2.31%

That's a margin of 5.27, which means a PVI of 3.18 (the lowest ever for all the elections I have data for).

@JG: That's a fair point, although I'm not sure she invested as much into Pennsylvania and Ohio as she should have.

Trump, if I am not mistaken, is the first Republican in a long while to come within single digits in Erie.

Since George Bush Sr. in 1988, yes. They lost it by similar margins, but of course the difference is that Bush won the national PV by 8 points.

I see. What about Adirondack? I had read somewhere that Clinton won New York by just 10,000 votes if you took out New York City. Obviously, your state of New York includes the adjacent suburbs, and removing those gives Trump the remainder.

[Calthrina950]

Out of curiosity, what was the exact margin in Erie?

Here are the full results:

Hillary 50.01%
T***p 44.74%
Johnson 2.95%
Others 2.31%

That's a margin of 5.27, which means a PVI of 3.18 (the lowest ever for all the elections I have data for).

@JG: That's a fair point, although I'm not sure she invested as much into Pennsylvania and Ohio as she should have.

Trump, if I am not mistaken, is the first Republican in a long while to come within single digits in Erie.

Since George Bush Sr. in 1988, yes. They lost it by similar margins, but of course the difference is that Bush won the national PV by 8 points.

I see. What about Adirondack? I had read somewhere that Clinton won New York by just 10,000 votes if you took out New York City. Obviously, your state of New York includes the adjacent suburbs, and removing those gives Trump the remainder.

Yup:

Hillary 45.69%
T***p 47.92%
Johnson 3.77%
Others 2.62%

T***p won it by about 60K votes. Meanwhile, Hillary carried almost 2/3 of the vote in the new New York State.

So there was a kind of native-son effect that took place in New York back in 2016, even though the extent of it was obscured by Clinton's 22 point margin of victory. Without New York City (but including the suburbs around it), New York would have been the closest state in the election.