Alternate US States

[bagelman]

I assume that Ohio will be more competitive for the Republican Primary, whereas Erie should be safely Kasich

The fact that Lee Fisher, not John Kasich, is the Gov. of Erie might make thinks more competitive in my neck of the woods. Kasich might end up having to fight for either or both Erie and Ohio.

[bagelman]

So, how does the '16 general election look in this world?

[bagelman]

My guess for the results:



Indiana: Donnelly is toast.
Lincoln: Given Tester only narrowly hanged on with the OTL map and how badly Heitkamp lost, it seems reasonable to think that Lincoln's Class 1 seat flips.
North Florida: Given that Scott is leading with the OTL map with South Florida, can't see the Republicans losing North Florida.
South Florida: Although Republicans overperformed here, Scott's very narrow margin statewide (and the Republican win in North Florida) probably means this seat flips blue.
California: This is difficult to guess given that there was no D-R election in OTL California, but I'd guess Democrats would narrowly pick it up.
Pennsylvania: RicK Santorum wins re-election probably by high single digits/low double digits.

This I would assume would be in a world where Trump won like in ours. In a Clinton midterm I actually thing that de Leon's overpreformance OTL shows signs of the GOP holding on in California.

[bagelman]

I also drew some maps for Erie and Ohio, although mine are less realistic because they are fair.

Erie 2012-2020 6D-1R holds until 2020, when ER-1 flips to the GOP. ER-6 was almost also lost that same year.

Erie for 2022 2 D districts, 2 R districts, and 2 swing districts.

Ohio 2012-2020 More fairly drawn Ohio with a blue OH-1 for Cincy. OH-6 was held by a Democrat briefly after 2012, but was won by the GOP in 2014 and has been held since. OH-9 was flipped by Democrats in 2018 due to Trends and held in 2020.

Ohio for 2022 Redistricting benefits the GOP. While it's the old OH-3 that ends up cut by the commission, the new OH-3 (successor to OH-6) is more GOP. Republicans get a big chance to retake the outer Columbus seat which now includes Springfield and has been renumbered from 9 to 7.

[bagelman]

While digging through this thread to find the other county maps, I found this 6R gerrymander of IL Muon made in 2014 and recreated it in the new DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2356cfe1-ed89-4d24-8927-cfc98d20fb79

IL loses one seat for 2020 and goes down to 5R

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90b28a5f-0945-4f1b-a7b9-7492497bf0d9

[bagelman]

While digging through this thread to find the other county maps, I found this 6R gerrymander of IL Muon made in 2014 and recreated it in the new DRA.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2356cfe1-ed89-4d24-8927-cfc98d20fb79

IL loses one seat for 2020 and goes down to 5R

https://davesredistricting.org/join/90b28a5f-0945-4f1b-a7b9-7492497bf0d9

Wow, the 5-seat one doesn't even look gerrymandered. I guess downstate IL is just that Republican nowadays...

Yep. Here's a Dem friendly map to illustrate this.