Alternate US States

[E-Dawg]

I am greatly interested in seeing a 2020 election update once all states are certified. I'm particularly curious to see if Trump wins South Florida and/or Rio Grande. Both seem like plausible Clinton-Trump states in this sencerio.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I am greatly interested in seeing a 2020 election update once all states are certified. I'm particularly curious to see if Trump wins South Florida and/or Rio Grande. Both seem like plausible Clinton-Trump states in this sencerio.

I calculated South Florida here already myself before, and it narrowly went to Biden.

[E-Dawg]

I am greatly interested in seeing a 2020 election update once all states are certified. I'm particularly curious to see if Trump wins South Florida and/or Rio Grande. Both seem like plausible Clinton-Trump states in this sencerio.

I calculated South Florida here already myself before, and it narrowly went to Biden.

Do you have the percentages?

[Mr. Smith]

Will Ohio [or is that called Erie in this map] still be Biden, now that is a good question.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Source: States official election results.

[MillennialModerate]

I think this makes the population split more reasonable while keeping the senates rural state by state (GOP favoring) lean in place.  So it’s not too much of a slant to one party. It also makes the electoral vote split more reasonable.


1. North Dakota and South Dakota = Dakota (est 4 ev) -2
2. Vermont and New Hampshire = New Hampshire (est 5 ev) -2
3. Massachusetts and Rhode Island = Massachusetts (est 13 ev) -2
4. Puerto Rico Territory = Puerto Rico (est 7 ev)
5. West Virginia and Virginia = Virginia (est 17 ev) -1
6. Idaho, Wyoming and Montana = Midahoming (est 7 ev) -4
7. Maryland and Delaware = Maryland (est 12 ev) -1
8. California divided into 2 = North Calif & South Calif (est 20/25 ev)

Brings the total states to 45 states.

GOP loses 6 Senate Seats total in (1) and (6)
Democrats lose 6 Senate seats in (2) (3) and (7)
Democrats gain 4 Senate seats in (4) and (8)
(5) becomes a straight tossup state.

So Democrats likely gain 4 Senate seats without (though PR isn’t Safe Dem but Likely) and Virginia becomes a tossup so they could lose 2 to make the gains 2 or win both to make it +6. I don’t like DC becoming a state. (I like a constitutional amendment to give DC 1 Senate seat and 2 House seats). So these changes make the Senate still with a slight lean to the state by state (GOP favored) model as opposed to the population (Dem favored) model which keep the Senate as unique and diffrent from the House. But at the same time it’s at least reasonable - where now it’s a ridiculous slant.

[MillennialModerate]

^
Could someone make maps and show recent election results with those parameters?

[TwinGeeks99]

When do you think you can make a map of the 2020 election using those state boundaries?

[E-Dawg]

Are you going to make a 2020 map anytime soon?

[Antonio the Sixth]

When do you think you can make a map of the 2020 election using those state boundaries?

Are you going to make a 2020 map anytime soon?

Appreciate the interest! A full set of maps and analysis will be forthcoming, but probably not for another couple months because 1. I'm pretty busy right now and will be for a while and 2. I do want to wait until the results are 100% definitive.

In the meantime, if someone wants to calculate preliminary results, you're obviously welcome to do so.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Source: States official election results.

Yeesh.

If this is true, it'd be a 1.8-point swing to the right from 2016. And the first time in the entire series (so going back to at least 1960, but more likely actually to 1936) that Erie had a Republican PVI. Pretty devastating.

[E-Dawg]

Has anyone calculated percentages for Rio Grande?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay, I know I've waited so long that the hype is probably long dead now, but here is at long last the 2020 update!

2020



Joe Biden: 315 (+9)
Donald J. T***p: 223 (-9)

Biden wins with a slightly larger share of the Electoral College. By and large, the changes made to the map cancel each other out. The splits tend to favor Biden, as he nets a lot of EVs out of Rio Grande, South Florida and Erie (even though his margin of victory in all these states is underwhelming compared to previous Dems in recent elections). He of course loses Allegheny and Illinois, also in line with the previous few maps. Hilariously enough, the shifting of the Upper Peninsula from MI to WI, which was so critical in flipping the result for Hillary in 2016, ends up working against Biden this time around: he still wins Michigan fairly comfortably, but ends up losing Wisconsin by just a tenth of a point. As a result, all of Biden's Rust Belt flips IRL are nullified by this map: PA, AY, MI and WI all voted the same way in 2020 as in 2016. Whereas Biden was acclaimed IRL for bringing Democrats back into the Midwest, this map appears to put more emphasis on the Sun Belt component of his victory. GA and AZ, which are unaffected by the redrawing, still barely flip to the Democrats. The third and final flip of this map (which is otherwise a perfect clone of 2016) is Adirondack, where Biden's solid appeal among White working-class Northeasterners seems to have proved decisive. Still, overall, there's far more continuity with 2016 than change here.

PVI map:


Donald J. T***p: 322 (+11)
Joe Biden: 216 (-11)

While the topline map looks pretty good for Biden, looking below the surface to state PVIs reveals a far bleaker picture. Even bleaker, in fact, than even the RL map. Nearly 60% of the Electoral College under this scenario would be drawn from a state with a Republican PVI, which almost all the swing states leaning to the right. Minnesota is the lone Dem-leaning swing state, with a D+3 PVI. On the other end, though, there are a full 9 states (totaling 109 EVs) with a PVI between 0 and R+5. This is a striking reversal from even just 2016, where you could see plenty of pink on that map. What happened? Many states that used to be slightly Dem-leaning saw unfavorable trends this cycle, largely having to do with their losses with Hispanics (which cost them SF, NV and CA) or further erosion with the Midwestern working class (costing them ER). There are also some states like AZ and GA which have trended Democratic, but not enough to flip their PVI. Overall, one interesting pattern is that a lot of states that used to be split between a clearly D one and a clearly R one see that difference erode: SF and ER are both striking in that regard. On the other hand, you have California reverting to a Republican PVI, and thus making the 3-way split of RL California matter again. It will be interesting to see where things go from there in that regard. While the breadth of Republican structural dominance is enhanced compared to the RL map, it is worth noting that its depth is significantly lessened. While IRL, the tipping point state (WI/PA had a R+3.5 PVI), under this map, it would be Nevada at a much more reasonable R+2. So Biden's victory would have looked far more comfortable and safe from the outset, compared to the nailbiters in PA/WI/AZ/GA that defined the election night IRL.

Swing/trend map:


The swing map is actually pretty informative, especially in isolating the places where Biden underperformed. We clearly see the Republican gains in large Northern city-states like NY and CH (as well as Erie, with its WWC electorate and its flagging Black turnout). We also see Biden's underperformance with Hispanic voters, especially Cubans in SF but also Mexicans in RG and CS. That aside, the swing map is a sea of pink, showing a fairly uniform swing to the left compared to 2016. The trend map largely confirms this picture, although it muddies it somewhat with the whole weirdness that we saw even in the RL trend map. Still, a few notable patterns arise. Most pleasantly, AD's Democratic trend contrasts with NY's Republican one, and creates a nice continuity with the New England states. RG also continues to stand out from the rest of RL Texas. Generally speaking, though, this map is pretty similar to the one we can see on Atlas.

State Data:
- Most Democratic: Pacific (PVI +45.80)
- Most Republican: West Virginia (PVI -43.38)
- Closest: Wisconsin (margin -0.11)
- Bellwether: California (PVI -0.06)
- Tipping point: Nevada (PVI -1.97), after CA, AD, ER and MI
- Strongest Democratic Trend: Colorado (trend +6.24)
- Strongest Republican Trend: South Florida (trend -7.37)
- Most Stable (absolute): Pacific (swing -0.05)
- Most Stable (relative): North Carolina (trend -0.05)

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Fascinating as always, Antonio. Somehow this ends up being both tantalizing and chilling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating as always, Antonio. Somehow this ends up being both tantalizing and chilling.

Thanks!! And yeah, I keep wondering if this map would be better or worse than IRL.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good work.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Absolutely loved reading through this years ago. To (hopefully) help and to satisfy my own curiosity I've calculated the reapportionment for the 2020 census under these alternate states.

State	2010 Population	2020 Population	% Change	'10 CDs	'20 CDs	Change
California del Sur	21,146,847	22,123,016	+4.62%	30	29	−1
New York	13,038,826	13,863,559	+6.33%	18	18
South Florida	11,039,035	12,452,991	+12.81%	16	16
Georgia	9,687,653	10,711,908	+10.57%	14	14
North Carolina	9,535,483	10,439,388	+9.48%	13	14	+1
Jefferson	8,796,339	10,180,914	+15.74%	12	13	+1
Texas	8,599,827	9,953,278	+15.74%	12	13	+1
Chicago	9,686,021	9,838,421	+1.57%	14	13	−1
Michigan	9,572,279	9,775,723	+2.13%	14	13	−1
Washington	8,573,432	9,731,383	+13.51%	12	13	+1
Pacific	8,906,504	9,610,480	+7.90%	13	13
New Jersey	8,791,894	9,288,994	+5.65%	12	12
North Florida	7,762,275	9,085,196	+17.04%	11	12	+1
Rio Grande	7,749,395	9,011,313	+16.28%	11	12	+1
Virginia	8,001,024	8,631,393	+7.88%	11	11
Massachusetts	7,600,196	8,127,296	+6.94%	11	11
Pennsylvania	7,773,451	8,105,693	+4.27%	11	11
Maryland	7,273,209	7,856,717	+8.02%	10	10
California	7,166,682	7,771,312	+8.44%	10	10
Arizona	6,392,017	7,151,502	+11.88%	9	9
Ohio	6,852,201	7,137,023	+4.16%	10	9	−1
Tennessee	6,346,105	6,910,840	+8.90%	9	9
Adirondack	6,339,276	6,337,690	−0.03%	9	8	−1
Missouri	5,988,927	6,154,913	+2.77%	8	8
Wisconsin	5,831,921	6,026,175	+3.33%	8	8
Indiana	5,664,265	5,954,448	+5.12%	8	8
Colorado	5,029,196	5,773,714	+14.80%	7	8	+1
Minnesota	5,303,925	5,706,494	+7.59%	7	8	+1
South Carolina	4,625,364	5,118,425	+10.66%	7	7
Alabama	4,779,736	5,024,279	+5.12%	7	7
Allegheny	4,928,928	4,897,007	−0.65%	7	7
Erie	4,684,303	4,662,425	−0.47%	7	6	−1
Louisiana	4,533,372	4,657,757	+2.74%	6	6
Kentucky	4,339,367	4,505,836	+3.84%	6	6
Oregon	3,549,764	4,050,260	+14.10%	5	5
Illinois	4,130,574	3,974,318	−3.78%	6	5	−1
Oklahoma	3,751,351	3,959,353	+5.54%	5	5
Connecticut	3,574,097	3,605,944	+0.89%	5	5
New England	3,270,572	3,382,965	+3.44%	5	5
Lincoln	3,039,812	3,326,837	+9.44%	4	4
Utah	2,763,885	3,271,616	+18.37%	4	4
Iowa	3,046,355	3,190,369	+4.73%	4	4
Nevada	2,734,474	3,138,029	+14.76%	4	4
Arkansas	2,915,918	3,011,524	+3.28%	4	4
Mississipi	2,967,297	2,961,279	−0.20%	4	4
Kansas	2,853,118	2,937,880	+2.97%	4	4
New Mexico	2,059,179	2,117,522	+2.83%	3	3
Nebraska	1,826,341	1,961,504	+7.40%	3	3
West Virginia	1,852,994	1,793,716	−3.20%	3	2	−1
Hawaii	1,360,301	1,455,271	+6.98%	2	2
Alaska	710,231	733,391	+3.26%	1	1

[Antonio the Sixth]

Absolutely loved reading through this years ago. To (hopefully) help and to satisfy my own curiosity I've calculated the reapportionment for the 2020 census under these alternate states.

State	2010 Population	2020 Population	% Change	'10 CDs	'20 CDs	Change
California del Sur	21,146,847	22,123,016	+4.62%	30	29	−1
New York	13,038,826	13,863,559	+6.33%	18	18
South Florida	11,039,035	12,452,991	+12.81%	16	16
Georgia	9,687,653	10,711,908	+10.57%	14	14
North Carolina	9,535,483	10,439,388	+9.48%	13	14	+1
Jefferson	8,796,339	10,180,914	+15.74%	12	13	+1
Texas	8,599,827	9,953,278	+15.74%	12	13	+1
Chicago	9,686,021	9,838,421	+1.57%	14	13	−1
Michigan	9,572,279	9,775,723	+2.13%	14	13	−1
Washington	8,573,432	9,731,383	+13.51%	12	13	+1
Pacific	8,906,504	9,610,480	+7.90%	13	13
New Jersey	8,791,894	9,288,994	+5.65%	12	12
North Florida	7,762,275	9,085,196	+17.04%	11	12	+1
Rio Grande	7,749,395	9,011,313	+16.28%	11	12	+1
Virginia	8,001,024	8,631,393	+7.88%	11	11
Massachusetts	7,600,196	8,127,296	+6.94%	11	11
Pennsylvania	7,773,451	8,105,693	+4.27%	11	11
Maryland	7,273,209	7,856,717	+8.02%	10	10
California	7,166,682	7,771,312	+8.44%	10	10
Arizona	6,392,017	7,151,502	+11.88%	9	9
Ohio	6,852,201	7,137,023	+4.16%	10	9	−1
Tennessee	6,346,105	6,910,840	+8.90%	9	9
Adirondack	6,339,276	6,337,690	−0.03%	9	8	−1
Missouri	5,988,927	6,154,913	+2.77%	8	8
Wisconsin	5,831,921	6,026,175	+3.33%	8	8
Indiana	5,664,265	5,954,448	+5.12%	8	8
Colorado	5,029,196	5,773,714	+14.80%	7	8	+1
Minnesota	5,303,925	5,706,494	+7.59%	7	8	+1
South Carolina	4,625,364	5,118,425	+10.66%	7	7
Alabama	4,779,736	5,024,279	+5.12%	7	7
Allegheny	4,928,928	4,897,007	−0.65%	7	7
Erie	4,684,303	4,662,425	−0.47%	7	6	−1
Louisiana	4,533,372	4,657,757	+2.74%	6	6
Kentucky	4,339,367	4,505,836	+3.84%	6	6
Oregon	3,549,764	4,050,260	+14.10%	5	5
Illinois	4,130,574	3,974,318	−3.78%	6	5	−1
Oklahoma	3,751,351	3,959,353	+5.54%	5	5
Connecticut	3,574,097	3,605,944	+0.89%	5	5
New England	3,270,572	3,382,965	+3.44%	5	5
Lincoln	3,039,812	3,326,837	+9.44%	4	4
Utah	2,763,885	3,271,616	+18.37%	4	4
Iowa	3,046,355	3,190,369	+4.73%	4	4
Nevada	2,734,474	3,138,029	+14.76%	4	4
Arkansas	2,915,918	3,011,524	+3.28%	4	4
Mississipi	2,967,297	2,961,279	−0.20%	4	4
Kansas	2,853,118	2,937,880	+2.97%	4	4
New Mexico	2,059,179	2,117,522	+2.83%	3	3
Nebraska	1,826,341	1,961,504	+7.40%	3	3
West Virginia	1,852,994	1,793,716	−3.20%	3	2	−1
Hawaii	1,360,301	1,455,271	+6.98%	2	2
Alaska	710,231	733,391	+3.26%	1	1

Oh, that's really cool, thanks!

I would have made the calculations eventually, but knowing me it would probably have taken way too long.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Washington	8,573,432	9,731,383	+13.51%	12	13	+1
Oregon	3,549,764	4,050,260	+14.10%	5	5

Okay, I ended up running my own calculations after all. They track yours everywhere except here, because I have WA at 9,729,077 and OR at 4,052,566. So there are 2306 people you put in WA that I put in OR. Not sure where those come from since there's no single county with that population, but maybe there was a switcheroo somewhere.

Still, great work!

[Joseph Cao]

Ooooh boy, it's back!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

As I already had all the data compiled in a spreadsheet, thought it might be interesting to run a very rough prediction of the 2030 reapportionment. This is assuming every state grows at exactly the same rate they grew through the 2010s, so it won't be accurate but it gives a rough idea of what'll probably happen.

Closest Priority Values:
432. Indiana 8th
433. Wisconsin 8th
434. Pacific 13th
435. Massachusetts 11th
436. Minnesota 8th (lol)
437. Washington 14th
438. Georgia 15th
439. Alabama 7th
440. Lincoln 5th
441. Connecticut 5th

State	'20 CDs	'30 CDs	Change
California del Sur	29	28	−1
New York	18	18
South Florida	16	17	+1
Georgia	14	14
Jefferson	13	14	+1
Texas	13	14	+1
North Carolina	14	14
Washington	13	13
North Florida	12	13	+1
Rio Grande	12	13	+1
Pacific	13	13
Chicago	13	12	−1
Michigan	13	12	−1
New Jersey	12	12
Virginia	11	11
Massachusetts	11	11
Maryland	10	10
Pennsylvania	11	10	−1
California	10	10
Arizona	9	10	+1
Tennessee	9	9
Ohio	9	9
Colorado	8	8
Adirondack	8	8
Missouri	8	8
Indiana	8	8
Wisconsin	8	8
Minnesota	8	8
South Carolina	7	7
Alabama	7	6	−1
Allegheny	7	6	−1
Louisiana	6	6
Kentucky	6	6
Erie	6	6
Oregon	5	6	+1
Oklahoma	5	5
Utah	4	5	+1
Illinois	5	5
Lincoln	4	4
Connecticut	5	4	−1
Nevada	4	4
New England	5	4	−1
Iowa	4	4
Arkansas	4	4
Kansas	4	4
Mississipi	4	4
New Mexico	3	3
Nebraska	3	3
West Virginia	2	2
Hawaii	2	2
Alaska	1	1

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Fairer map to people whose tax dollars are sent to far-right failed states:

I don't think this is a generic thread for other people's alternate US states. I think this is just for Antonio's alternate US states.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Fairer map to people whose tax dollars are sent to far-right failed states:

I don't think this is a generic thread for other people's alternate US states. I think this is just for Antonio's alternate US states.

Ah.

[OBD]

Here's some potential congressional districts for the states of Erie and Ohio. Some analysis for this redraw:

Erie

In 2010, a (albeit reduced) Democratic trifecta redrew the lines in Erie once again, creating six safe seats for their representatives while drawing a sink for lone GOP representative Jim Renacci. And, despite extremely unfavorable trends over the decade, the Erie Democrats managed to hold most of these seats (with Tim Ryan's narrow 2-point loss in 2020 the sole). However, redistricting in Erie is now in the hands of an independent commission for the first time in the state's history. The map it drew is significantly less favorable to the Democrats - 5 of 6 districts now lean to the right of the nation. In particular, Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown) has been placed into an extremely bad situation for a comeback, now representing a Trump+11 seat. With the retirement of Dennis Kucinich (D-Lakewood) of the 3rd District, the Erie Democrats have dodged the bullet of a double-incumbent primary, but must now defend three incumbents in marginal seats.

Ohio
Once again, the Republicans are in firm control of redistricting in the Buckeye State. In 2010, they drew a ruthless gerrymander leaving Joyce Beatty of Cleveland as the sole Democratic representative. This year, they refined this gerrymander, adjusting for the lost seat and the retirement of Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington). Every non-Columbus seat is now at least Trump+15, with Democratic trends tampered through cracking with Ohio's extremely Republican rural areas. Barring the sudden acceleration of said trends, a 8-1 delegation appears extremely likely to hold for the decade.

[bagelman]

I also drew some maps for Erie and Ohio, although mine are less realistic because they are fair.

Erie 2012-2020 6D-1R holds until 2020, when ER-1 flips to the GOP. ER-6 was almost also lost that same year.

Erie for 2022 2 D districts, 2 R districts, and 2 swing districts.

Ohio 2012-2020 More fairly drawn Ohio with a blue OH-1 for Cincy. OH-6 was held by a Democrat briefly after 2012, but was won by the GOP in 2014 and has been held since. OH-9 was flipped by Democrats in 2018 due to Trends and held in 2020.

Ohio for 2022 Redistricting benefits the GOP. While it's the old OH-3 that ends up cut by the commission, the new OH-3 (successor to OH-6) is more GOP. Republicans get a big chance to retake the outer Columbus seat which now includes Springfield and has been renumbered from 9 to 7.