Summer polls
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Author Topic: Summer polls  (Read 1726 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« on: September 13, 2009, 06:48:23 AM »

Those who have been around for awhile are aware that summer polls for many survey research firms tend to lean Democrat, and then snap back when summer ends.  Here's an example from Polimetrix in its Generic House Race preference polls:

Date                                        Republican          Democrat          Difference

August 30 to September 1          37 %                    41 %               4 %
August 16 to August 18              37                        44                    6
August 9 to August 11                36                        46                  10
July 19 to July 21                        36                        48                  12
June 28 to June 30                     33                        47                  14
June 21 to June 23                     36                        45                  13
June 7 to June 9                         37                        45                    8
May 31 to June 2                        38                        44                    6
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Meeker
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« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2009, 11:28:53 AM »

Right, right. I remember this happening in 2006 and 2008. It's a shame I got my hopes up those years.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2009, 07:50:11 PM »

any poll from this summer that isn't about Virginia or New Jersey means virtually nothing.  Polls for 2010 races cannot predict the public reaction to votes on health care, energy reform, financial overhaul, etc.  There is still a lot to be done in congress and I assume the state legislatures also.  Unforseen and unpredictable events are bound to occur.  Anyone who is trying to make any kind of solid predictions for 2010 based on this summer's polls is a fool.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2009, 08:30:07 PM »

Its not about Democrats, summer polls are anti-incumbent. Why, because in the summer people are thinking about how unhappy they are with the incumbents while in the fall they are wrestling with the alternatives.

In the summer of 1994, Ted Kennedy trailed Mitt Romney, and Bill Bradley was also substantially behinds. At the same time Jeb Bush was 5-7 points ahead.

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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2009, 10:56:31 PM »

Obama's worst polling (post-Wrightgate, at least) was also during the late summer.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2009, 11:28:05 PM »

Obama's worst polling (post-Wrightgate, at least) was also during the late summer.

Obama hit a bad patch due to events (his initial opposition to off-shore drilling and the Russian invasion of Georgia).  It had nothing to due with summer.
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user60521
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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2009, 06:26:37 AM »

Wealthy people go away for vacation in the summer and their opinions are harder to register. Working people, especially in this economy, stay put.
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Badger
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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2009, 02:30:38 PM »

any poll from this summer that isn't about Virginia or New Jersey means virtually nothing.  Polls for 2010 races cannot predict the public reaction to votes on health care, energy reform, financial overhaul, etc.  There is still a lot to be done in congress and I assume the state legislatures also.  Unforseen and unpredictable events are bound to occur.  Anyone who is trying to make any kind of solid predictions for 2010 based on this summer's polls is a fool.
^^^^^^ this.
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