India elections

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1) Congress
2) Congress

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With "theatre" being the key word

This round of elections won't be crucial to the general; India has a multi-party system and these elections are INC v BJP dogfights.

The outcome of the Uttar Pradash election(and subsequent turmoil ending in Yadev taking over...again) does seem to have had a more direct impact than the current round.

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As I expected...

However on the bright side the BJP have collapsed in Uttar Pradash and Yadev's Socialists(sorry I can't remember how to spell their proper name. I think it's Samajvadi) look to be sweeping it in the general election(with the BSP getting seriously hurt by the Taj Mahal affair), and these results show that a wave of anti-incumbency is sweeping India...

Also the Commies(CPI-M) should do well in West Bengal again and Southern Indians hate the BJP.

Congress have agreed to co-operate with the Left haven't they?

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Well from what I hear the INC has FINALLY agreed to accept formal alliances, which is a good thing.
The SP will probably sweep UP, so it's vital that Congress build bridges with Yadev.

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What's the chances of Congress forming a coalition with Yadev and the rest of the Left?

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Interesting possibility...

BTW do you know where I can find maps of constituancies etc?

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I'll have another look at the electoral commision site...

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Misregulated is very accurate...


BTW how well will the CPI-M do this time round?

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"Communists in split shock" eh?
I remember the CPI-M[arxist] doing well in the WB local elections a bit ago.

No more NCP to split the vote in Maharashtra?
Excellent...

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AIDMK appears to have agreed to join an alliance with the BJP... while DMK seem to have agreed to join Congress in an alliance.
Which is the complete opposite of the last election...

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I like Kerala, it's got a high literacy rate and usually has a high turnout come election time. Also the BJP et al do badly there
Do you think that the CPI-M might be able to win more seats than Congress in Kerala (it's 8 each at the moment)?

Why is politics in Tamil Nadu so insanely unprincipled?
I've never been able to understand why...

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It's 8 CPI-M and 8 Congress. Some smaller parties have seats as well.

How reliable are polls in India? As it's such a huge and diverse country I wouldn't think very accurate... but polls in the U.K are either innacurate and/or blatently biased...

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Ah... says it all really...

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15,000?

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For one poll? That'll cost a lot of money...

BTW how well will the RJD do in Bihar?
I remember them doing very badly in 1999.

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Is he India's answer to Huey Long?

He's governing Bihar via the "Wallace method" (ie: his wife is techinically in charge, but he is pulling the strings) if I remember correctly.

Bihar has a reputation for political violence doesn't it?

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Question: what colour is used to represent Congress on maps? I know that The BJP is Orange, the Communists are Red, but I'm never sure what colour should be used for Congress.

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Orangy-yellow then.
Is making that mistake enough to get me on the hitlist of a bunch of Hindu extremists?

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Oh sh*t...

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BBC: Rahul Gandhi to stand for Congress in Amethi

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The idea of the BJP getting an overall majority is scary...

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Excellent!

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After the second round of polling, exit polls are proclaiming the following...
The Chandrababu Naidu government is toast; Congress/TRS sweep the state and according to some firms will get as many seats as TDP/BJP got last time.
It's down to the wire in Karnataka, with the JD (S) likely picking up a number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Patnaik can sleep soundly in Orissa.
BJP/SHS and INC/NCP will have roughly equal numbers of seats in Maharashtra.
My UP predictions won't come to pass, the election is going much better than I expected for both Congress and the Bahusan Samaj.
Bihar will be a RLD/INC victory, but maybe not by the kind of margin I envisage.
The NDA will either just about make it to a second term or there'll be a hung Lok Sabha with the NDA the strongest camp. The latter is looking likelier by the day.
The most NDA-unfriendly of the polling firm results I see quoted is very close to my prediction! NDTV say NDA 235-255, Congress & Allies 190-210, others 100-120.

No NDA majority?

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It doesn't matter

What doesn't matter?

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Just quoting Reuter's...
"India's mammoth election campaign drew to a close on Saturday with both main parties trading insults as exit and opinion polls showed a close race to the finish line."
and...
"The NDA's campaign motto 'India Shining' appears to have backfired among the rural impoverished masses, many of whom feel excluded from an economic recovery that has mainly benefited the urban middle class."

I thought that "India Shining" might backfire... "you've never had it so good" campaigning usually backfires...
D'ya reckon that an urban-rural split might be large?

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Gee...I dunno. In some parts, yeah. Karnataka's JD (S) gains won't be anywhere urban, for example. Elsewhere, it's always been there: Hyderabad votes Islamist, for example. Elsewhere again, maybe not: Madras shouldn't vote so different from the rest of Tamil Nadu. Never has in the past, anyways. Delhi is it's own state, so you can't really judge. Calcutta already is the most NDA-friendly part, okay the only NDA-friendly part, of West Bengal.

Interesting. Thanks