No Chappaquiddick, Kennedy v. Nixon in 1972
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  No Chappaquiddick, Kennedy v. Nixon in 1972
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Author Topic: No Chappaquiddick, Kennedy v. Nixon in 1972  (Read 4291 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« on: September 06, 2009, 10:23:13 PM »

Let's say that Chappaquiddick never happens and, as predicted, Senator Ted Kennedy eaisly win 1972 Democratic nomination to face incumbeni Nixon.

I must say I'm not convinced that Kennedy would beat a popular and, whatever you think, accomplished President in 1972. I'm sure on the other hand, he'd performe better than McGovern.

Discuss with maps.
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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2009, 10:41:28 PM »

I think Kennedy would have picked Terry Sanford of North Carolina to balance the ticket.Still a pretty big Nixon win.



Richard Nixon/ Spiro Agnew: 398
Edward M. Kennedy/ Terry Sanford: 140
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Mechaman
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2009, 11:24:28 PM »

Man......this one is tough. Without Chappaquiddick and if Tricky Dicky is up to his dirty tricks it could either mean Tricky Dicky still manages to score a landslide election (if he doesn't get caught), or it could mean that Ted takes full advantage of Watergate (when it first comes out to public knowledge) and score a decisive victory against Nixon. I imagine the latter is more likely to happen, as IRL Ted was pretty bright about the whole situation.
It is an unfair assumption that Edward Kennedy would be unable to connect with Southerners and Westerners, actually due to his being a Kennedy and thus American Royalty would actually help him with traditionally Democratic places especially if he picks a Southerner like Terry Sanford, Lloyd Bensen, or even Fred Harris (though that might be the Okie hack in me speaking). I believe that if he ever made it to a general election and didn't have Chappaquiddick on his record Ted Kennedy, no matter how liberal he was or appeared to be, would be able to work with the American people to get him elected like he did with Congressmembers across the aisle to pass the legislation he really cared about. Just saying. And like I said earlier Ted would milk Watergate for all it's worth.
Here is how I think an Edward Kennedy win against Nixon best case scenario, all guns blazing:



Richard Nixon (NY)/Spiro Agnew (MD) (Republican) 100 evs
Edward Kennedy (MA)/Lloyd Bentsen (TX) (Democratic) 438 evs
This sounds insane, but I believe this is possible.

A moderate Kennedy win:



Richard Nixon (NY)/Spiro Agnew (MD) (Republican) 205 evs
Edward Kennedy (MA)/Birch Bayh (IN) (Democratic) 333 evs

A lean Kennedy win (most likely):



Richard Nixon (NY)/Spiro Agnew (MD) (Republican) 242 evs
Edward Kennedy (MA)/ Mo Udall (AZ) (Democratic) 296 evs

Sounds crazy at first, but think about the family name, how effective of a Senator Ted was, Watergate, and possibly even Spiro Agnew's controversy. It's easy to hide this stuff when your opponent is George McGovern, sure as hell won't be easy when it is Edward M. Kennedy.
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hcallega
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2009, 09:50:28 AM »

I'm not totally convinced 1972 would be Kennedy's year. As a pragmatist, it's unlikely he would see any chance to win and likely would have held off until 1976 to face Spiro Agnew (or so he would have thought!). Here is a 1976 map since 1972 is too hard to predict:


Kennedy/Sanford
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2009, 02:23:14 PM »

I think Kennedy, without Chappaquiddick, would win in 1976 against virtually every GOP-er. But as of 1972 he'd in best case lost narrowly to Nixon
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President Mitt
Giovanni
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2009, 02:42:08 PM »

No Democrat was going to beat Nixon in 1972, but if Kennedy wants it, he's got 1976 wrapped up. I wouldn't even think Teddy would run in 1972 because of that.
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2009, 05:37:08 PM »

This map is what I believe would be the absolute best result that Senator Ted Kennedy could  have achieved against President Richard Nixon in 1972.  In reality, Nixon's win would likely have been larger.

Nixon had tremendous support in the country in 1972 and his accomplishments on the world stage were unequaled. 

No Democrat, including Ted Kennedy, would have defeated Nixon in 1972.

Nixon                          336
Kennedy                      202

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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2009, 05:44:32 PM »

Man......this one is tough. Without Chappaquiddick and if Tricky Dicky is up to his dirty tricks it could either mean Tricky Dicky still manages to score a landslide election (if he doesn't get caught), or it could mean that Ted takes full advantage of Watergate (when it first comes out to public knowledge) and score a decisive victory against Nixon. I imagine the latter is more likely to happen, as IRL Ted was pretty bright about the whole situation.
It is an unfair assumption that Edward Kennedy would be unable to connect with Southerners and Westerners, actually due to his being a Kennedy and thus American Royalty would actually help him with traditionally Democratic places especially if he picks a Southerner like Terry Sanford, Lloyd Bensen, or even Fred Harris (though that might be the Okie hack in me speaking). I believe that if he ever made it to a general election and didn't have Chappaquiddick on his record Ted Kennedy, no matter how liberal he was or appeared to be, would be able to work with the American people to get him elected like he did with Congressmembers across the aisle to pass the legislation he really cared about. Just saying. And like I said earlier Ted would milk Watergate for all it's worth.
Here is how I think an Edward Kennedy win against Nixon best case scenario, all guns blazing:



Richard Nixon (NY)/Spiro Agnew (MD) (Republican) 100 evs
Edward Kennedy (MA)/Lloyd Bentsen (TX) (Democratic) 438 evs
This sounds insane, but I believe this is possible.

A moderate Kennedy win:



Richard Nixon (NY)/Spiro Agnew (MD) (Republican) 205 evs
Edward Kennedy (MA)/Birch Bayh (IN) (Democratic) 333 evs

A lean Kennedy win (most likely):



Richard Nixon (NY)/Spiro Agnew (MD) (Republican) 242 evs
Edward Kennedy (MA)/ Mo Udall (AZ) (Democratic) 296 evs

Sounds crazy at first, but think about the family name, how effective of a Senator Ted was, Watergate, and possibly even Spiro Agnew's controversy. It's easy to hide this stuff when your opponent is George McGovern, sure as hell won't be easy when it is Edward M. Kennedy.

TEXAS?HuhHuh
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Robespierre's Jaw
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2009, 04:33:36 PM »

If even Ed Muskie was at one stage neck-and-neck with Nixon in the polls in late 1971 and early 1972, Kennedy would surely have a chance against him. Hence, in my personal opinion this election very well could have been the closest election, ironically since 1960.
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2009, 04:47:36 PM »

Let this be said...

Even Jimmy Carter creamed Ted Kennedy, and that was AFTER he was President for four years. Wink
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2009, 12:16:19 AM »

Had Ted Kennedy run and won the nomination in 1976, he most likely would have become President.

Neither 1972 nor 1980 was Kennedy's year.

Bottom line, he waited four years too long.
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benconstine
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2009, 09:54:16 AM »

A 284-254 victory for Nixon:
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2010, 05:19:36 PM »



Nixon/Agnew-466 EV
Kennedy/Sanford-72 EV

No one was going to defeat Nixon in 1972 with a good economy and with Nixon's successes in foreign policy.
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2010, 06:44:16 PM »

Who is the Democratic VP?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2010, 06:56:16 PM »


You decide.
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