A Couple of PA Senate Race Predictions.

[Keystone Phil]

I actually think Hoeffel will do quite well:

Specter  47%
Hoeffel   44%
Clymer     8%
Summers 1%

I wasn't home on Election night but when I did come home I watched the recording of CN8's Election coverage. What a bunch of clowns. All I heard was "Hoeffel might just pull off a big upset here!" At the party I attended, they had the local stations there with little TVs all over the place. People would look at the results for the Senate race and get worried. At one point, I was worried but soon realized that those were numbers coming from the Philly area. Of course Hoeffel would be close. What people overlooked was the fact that the west didn't come in yet.

[Jake]

you were what, 2 pts off. Not to bad at all.

[Keystone Phil]

you were what, 2 pts off. Not to bad at all.

Thank you. I overestimated Clymer (by a point) and overestimated Specter (by a point) and underestimated Hoeffel by 2.

[danwxman]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

And you live in Harrisburg?  Wow, Keystone good observation <sarcasm>!  PA is a socially conservative state outside of Philly.  They screw with labor too much and costs begin to rise, the same Santorum supporters may turn on him.  Also, if I'm not mistaken Santorum won Montgomery and Bucks counties in 2000.  Not happening next ime pal!

 You Philly assholes have such an ego.  The state doesn't belong to you.  Get it?

Hey...wait a minute! I'm a Philly guy...but I understand what you're saying. Many Dems like to say "well outside of Philly it might be socially conservative but here in the city..." Well that's great but what they have yet to understand is that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh aren't the only two places in the state.

I'm in Harrisburg but I recognize Philadelphia and Pittsburgh control the state. Philadelphia moreso lately as Pittsburgh continues to decline in importance and the whole region loses population.

I see southeastern Pennsylvania continuing to trend liberal (suburbanization from New York and Philadelphia has changed the Lehigh Valley and counties surrounding Philadelphia to Democrat). I also see the same effect occuring over the south central as suburbanization from Washington DC and Philadelphia really begins to accelerate over the next 20 years. Look how Lancaster, York and Dauphin counties DIDN'T really trend to Bush all that much...even with all the visits to get out the vote.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

And you live in Harrisburg?  Wow, Keystone good observation <sarcasm>!  PA is a socially conservative state outside of Philly.  They screw with labor too much and costs begin to rise, the same Santorum supporters may turn on him.  Also, if I'm not mistaken Santorum won Montgomery and Bucks counties in 2000.  Not happening next ime pal!

 You Philly assholes have such an ego.  The state doesn't belong to you.  Get it?

Hey...wait a minute! I'm a Philly guy...but I understand what you're saying. Many Dems like to say "well outside of Philly it might be socially conservative but here in the city..." Well that's great but what they have yet to understand is that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh aren't the only two places in the state.

I'm in Harrisburg but I recognize Philadelphia and Pittsburgh control the state. Philadelphia moreso lately as Pittsburgh continues to decline in importance and the whole region loses population.

I see southeastern Pennsylvania continuing to trend liberal (suburbanization from New York and Philadelphia has changed the Lehigh Valley and counties surrounding Philadelphia to Democrat). I also see the same effect occuring over the south central as suburbanization from Washington DC and Philadelphia really begins to accelerate over the next 20 years. Look how Lancaster, York and Dauphin counties DIDN'T really trend to Bush all that much...even with all the visits to get out the vote.

Uh...what? The Lehigh Valley is moving more to the right. Republicans pretty much control the area.

Philadelphia is losing more people than Pittsburgh. If it really was the way you put it, why didn't Kerry win by more than Gore did?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What suprised me was Hoeffel winning Beaver county. Philly, yeah (kinda obvious), Allegheny (ditto), Fayette (will vote for anyone with a "D" next to their name. Oh and Richard Nixon) but Beaver? Didn't expect that at all... not when he managed to lose Lackawanna at the same time...
Weird.

Mind you the fact that Washington voted for Kerry and Greene for Bush still suprises me... I'd expected 'tuther way round.

Anyone got any precinct results? Might explain a few things...

[Keystone Phil]

Anyone got any precinct results? Might explain a few things...

Unless you work at the precinct on Election day or have contact with your ward leader, you really can't get the precinct results.

[danwxman]

What suprised me was Hoeffel winning Beaver county. Philly, yeah (kinda obvious), Allegheny (ditto), Fayette (will vote for anyone with a "D" next to their name. Oh and Richard Nixon) but Beaver? Didn't expect that at all... not when he managed to lose Lackawanna at the same time...
Weird.

Mind you the fact that Washington voted for Kerry and Greene for Bush still suprises me... I'd expected 'tuther way round.

Anyone got any precinct results? Might explain a few things...

Agreed...I thought Washington would go Bush before Greene.

But now that I look back....if you follow the logic that Kerry did especially bad in rural areas...Greene county is very rural. Washington county has the city of Washington and a few large boroughs. Washington wasn't Kerry by all that much though, and with the suburban development in the northern part of the county it may continue to trend Republican.

About Beaver, I have no idea why it voted for Hoeffel. I don't really know why Fayette did either. After all, Specter got the union support. I think there was just a lot of straight-ticket Democratic voting going on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone got any precinct results? Might explain a few things...

Unless you work at the precinct on Election day or have contact with your ward leader, you really can't get the precinct results.

What happend to freedom of information?

[Keystone Phil]

Anyone got any precinct results? Might explain a few things...

Unless you work at the precinct on Election day or have contact with your ward leader, you really can't get the precinct results.

What happend to freedom of information?

I know, I know. I wish we had a state website or something. I think I can actually go down to City Hall and buy a copy of the results but that's out of the question.