A Couple of PA Senate Race Predictions.

[TeePee4Prez]

Even though Toomey had closer viewpoints to Bush than Specter did, Bush supported Specter. If Bush would have stayed out, Toomey may have won.

If Bush stayed out of the primary, Toomey would have won the race. I have no doubts about that.

Toomey would have won the primary, but would get CRUSHED in the general.  He would have hurt Bush even.  Santorum and Bush saved his hide to save their own.

[12th Doctor]

Those Kerry/Edwards/Hoffel signs are showing up everywhere. I've seen more of those (maybe 15) than plain ole Hoffel signs (0).

Specter will beat Hoffel by a good 15 points...whether he breaks 55%, is another thing (I doubt it, even if Clymer is strong)

I have seen a few plain "Hoeffel" signs- but they all say:

                  "Hoeffel
                   Democrat
                  For Senate"

The fact that he is so weak that he feels that he most rely on party ID is pretty sad.

[danwxman]

Those Kerry/Edwards/Hoffel signs are showing up everywhere. I've seen more of those (maybe 15) than plain ole Hoffel signs (0).

Specter will beat Hoffel by a good 15 points...whether he breaks 55%, is another thing (I doubt it, even if Clymer is strong)

I have seen a few plain "Hoeffel" signs- but they all say:

                  "Hoeffel
                   Democrat
                  For Senate"

The fact that he is so weak that he feels that he most rely on party ID is pretty sad.

He's trying to run on a party-line vote since Kerry will most likely win PA...It's just smart campaigning.

[12th Doctor]

Those Kerry/Edwards/Hoffel signs are showing up everywhere. I've seen more of those (maybe 15) than plain ole Hoffel signs (0).

Specter will beat Hoffel by a good 15 points...whether he breaks 55%, is another thing (I doubt it, even if Clymer is strong)

I have seen a few plain "Hoeffel" signs- but they all say:

                  "Hoeffel
                   Democrat
                  For Senate"

The fact that he is so weak that he feels that he most rely on party ID is pretty sad.

He's trying to run on a party-line vote since Kerry will most likely win PA...It's just smart campaigning.

I didn't say that it isn't his best chance to win.  I said it is pathetic that he must resort to that.

[Keystone Phil]

Even though Toomey had closer viewpoints to Bush than Specter did, Bush supported Specter. If Bush would have stayed out, Toomey may have won.

If Bush stayed out of the primary, Toomey would have won the race. I have no doubts about that.

Toomey would have won the primary, but would get CRUSHED in the general.  He would have hurt Bush even.  Santorum and Bush saved his hide to save their own.

Why would he be crushed? Toomey represents the values of most Pennsylvanians. Get over it.

[Jake]

Lets say Specter isn't re-elected, and Hatch steps down from the Judiciary Committee.  Who is the chairman if the GOP retains control?

[Keystone Phil]

Lets say Specter isn't re-elected, and Hatch steps down from the Judiciary Committee.  Who is the chairman if the GOP retains control?

Hatch is stepping down no matter what. If Specter loses, the next in line would be Arizona Senator Jon Kyl.

[StevenNick]

BTW, seeing a LOT more Kerry/Edwards signs then I ever saw Gore signs. Great news for Kerry in PA.

I'm not sure that really means much.  Over in my neck of the woods I've seen probably twice as many signs this year than I did in 2000.  I think that's more indicative of the fact that this is a high stakes race and everybody knows it (meaning that even dems who aren't normally politically active will put up a sign in their yard) rather than any significant increase in democratic support in Pennsylvania.

[nini2287]

Even though Toomey had closer viewpoints to Bush than Specter did, Bush supported Specter. If Bush would have stayed out, Toomey may have won.

If Bush stayed out of the primary, Toomey would have won the race. I have no doubts about that.

Toomey would have won the primary, but would get CRUSHED in the general.  He would have hurt Bush even.  Santorum and Bush saved his hide to save their own.

Why would he be crushed? Toomey represents the values of most Pennsylvanians. Get over it.

If Toomey represents the values of most Pennsylvanians, then why did he get less than 50% of the support in the REPUBLICAN primary.  Any word yet if Toomey is planning on running against Rendell for governor in 2006?

BTW, I do have to agree, the Kerry/Edwards/Hoeffel signs do not score any points in the aesthetics department.

[Keystone Phil]

Even though Toomey had closer viewpoints to Bush than Specter did, Bush supported Specter. If Bush would have stayed out, Toomey may have won.

If Bush stayed out of the primary, Toomey would have won the race. I have no doubts about that.

Toomey would have won the primary, but would get CRUSHED in the general.  He would have hurt Bush even.  Santorum and Bush saved his hide to save their own.

Why would he be crushed? Toomey represents the values of most Pennsylvanians. Get over it.

If Toomey represents the values of most Pennsylvanians, then why did he get less than 50% of the support in the REPUBLICAN primary.  Any word yet if Toomey is planning on running against Rendell for governor in 2006?

BTW, I do have to agree, the Kerry/Edwards/Hoeffel signs do not score any points in the aesthetics department.

Toomey got less than 50% because...

1) He was going against a 24 year incumbent
2) He had far less money than Specter
3) Bush and Santorum campaigned for Specter. Bush made a stop in PA a few days before the primary, gave a speech and Specter turned it into an ad. That's the main reason Specter won.

After all that, he still only lost by less than one percentage point. He started out with no name ID and about 25-30 points behind a powerful incumbent. Yet he ended giving Specter the closest race of his political career.

Concerning Toomey's possible 2006 run, it looks like he's beginning to take serious interest in it. Rendell is vulnerable. This is not the Rendell of 2002. If Toomey runs, it'll be an interesting race.

[danwxman]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

Well first of all, while there is no Santorum-Toomey team in the Senate, there is still a Senator Santorum. Yes, he does represent Pennsylvania. Yes we are a conservative state. He has the highest approval ratings (tied with Rendell) and lowest disapproval ratings of any statewide official.

Secondly, if Santorum can win statewide, Toomey could win. I know it's hard for PA Dems to admit but conservatives like Santorum and Toomey represent PA values. If there was a Toomey-Hoeffel race, it would be close but Toomey would take it.

And to prove Toomey represents PA values, look at his district. The Dems have an advantage there but guess what? His conservativism reflects what the average person in PA 15 (his district) believes in. Look at Santorum, too - Dem district but most were conservative enough to support him. There are many other cases that I could present to you so think about what I said before you laugh about how Toomey represents PA values.

[TeePee4Prez]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

And you live in Harrisburg?  Wow, Keystone good observation <sarcasm>!  PA is a socially conservative state outside of Philly.  They screw with labor too much and costs begin to rise, the same Santorum supporters may turn on him.  Also, if I'm not mistaken Santorum won Montgomery and Bucks counties in 2000.  Not happening next ime pal!

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

And you live in Harrisburg?  Wow, Keystone good observation <sarcasm>!  PA is a socially conservative state outside of Philly.  They screw with labor too much and costs begin to rise, the same Santorum supporters may turn on him.  Also, if I'm not mistaken Santorum won Montgomery and Bucks counties in 2000.  Not happening next ime pal!

I love when you guys throw out this "Outside of Philly it's conservative..." as if to say it's not part of the picture.

As for 2006, if it's Santorum vs. Hafer, expect a close race in Montco and Bucks. I wouldn't say he's going to lose those two counties just yet.

[CollectiveInterest]

Hoeffel beats Specter by less than 10,000 votes with between 45-46% of votes cast. Dems gain five Senate seats (net).

[danwxman]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

Well first of all, while there is no Santorum-Toomey team in the Senate, there is still a Senator Santorum. Yes, he does represent Pennsylvania. Yes we are a conservative state. He has the highest approval ratings (tied with Rendell) and lowest disapproval ratings of any statewide official.

Secondly, if Santorum can win statewide, Toomey could win. I know it's hard for PA Dems to admit but conservatives like Santorum and Toomey represent PA values. If there was a Toomey-Hoeffel race, it would be close but Toomey would take it.

And to prove Toomey represents PA values, look at his district. The Dems have an advantage there but guess what? His conservativism reflects what the average person in PA 15 (his district) believes in. Look at Santorum, too - Dem district but most were conservative enough to support him. There are many other cases that I could present to you so think about what I said before you laugh about how Toomey represents PA values.

That's because Toomey is a "flip-flopper" He supported abortion rights and was much more liberal when he represented his district, then he flip-flopped to ultra-scary conseravative to run against Spector.

[Jake]

Hoeffel beats Specter by less than 10,000 votes with between 45-46% of votes cast. Dems gain five Senate seats (net).

Hah
and I thought my prediction was optimistic. 

What FIVE senate seats? Dems have a chance in OK, CO, AK, IL and with your prediction PA.  GOP will gain GA,SC at least.  Do the math.  In the Dems best case scenario they gain 3 seats. 

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

Well first of all, while there is no Santorum-Toomey team in the Senate, there is still a Senator Santorum. Yes, he does represent Pennsylvania. Yes we are a conservative state. He has the highest approval ratings (tied with Rendell) and lowest disapproval ratings of any statewide official.

Secondly, if Santorum can win statewide, Toomey could win. I know it's hard for PA Dems to admit but conservatives like Santorum and Toomey represent PA values. If there was a Toomey-Hoeffel race, it would be close but Toomey would take it.

And to prove Toomey represents PA values, look at his district. The Dems have an advantage there but guess what? His conservativism reflects what the average person in PA 15 (his district) believes in. Look at Santorum, too - Dem district but most were conservative enough to support him. There are many other cases that I could present to you so think about what I said before you laugh about how Toomey represents PA values.

That's because Toomey is a "flip-flopper" He supported abortion rights and was much more liberal when he represented his district, then he flip-flopped to ultra-scary conseravative to run against Spector.

Toomey was also conservative. Yes, the first time he ran he was in favor of abortion rights. However, to say that he is a flip flopper and was much more liberal when he represented his district is ridiculous.

And what, exactly, "ultra scary" positions did Toomey hold?

[J. J.]

Hoeffel beats Specter by less than 10,000 votes with between 45-46% of votes cast. Dems gain five Senate seats (net).

Collective is obviously defective.

[J. J.]

Just a guess...

Specter 52%

Hoeffel 39%

Clymer 9%

Others 1%

Supersoulty's closest. 

Spector 53%, Clymer 7%, Hoffel, 39%.

I watched Spector run 10 points ahead of Bill Scranton in the southwest in 1986.  He even bearly carried that region agains Yeakel in 1992.

[Colin]

My Prediction is that as long as Clymer is in the race Specter will not get above 53% of the vote. In saying that I still think that Hoeffel has no chance. He is a week candidate for the Dems plus Specter is moderate enough that he draws both Dems and Republicans to vote for him. Clymer will get around 10% my personal feeling is that he will get around 11-12% actually.


On a side note I was listening to a talk radio personality in Pittsburgh, Quinn and Rose in the Morning on 104.7, and Quinn told all his listeners in PA to go and vote Clymer. Not that it'll affect the vote much but it is an intresting side note.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey Colin. Welcome to the forum. It's always good to see another blue avatar here (especially a Pennsylvanian!)

As for the Senate race, I think your prediction for Clymer is alittle much. I say he gets around 4-6%.

[12th Doctor]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

And you live in Harrisburg?  Wow, Keystone good observation <sarcasm>!  PA is a socially conservative state outside of Philly.  They screw with labor too much and costs begin to rise, the same Santorum supporters may turn on him.  Also, if I'm not mistaken Santorum won Montgomery and Bucks counties in 2000.  Not happening next ime pal!

"Outside of Philadelphia is 70% of the state's population.  You Philly assholes have such an ego.  The state doesn't belong to you.  Get it?

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey represents PA values?!! LOL!!!!

It would seriously be a sad, sad day for PA if we had Toomey and Santorum representing us. PA is conservative, but not that conservative. Thank God Toomey lost, although I doubt he would have won statewide anyway.

And you live in Harrisburg?  Wow, Keystone good observation <sarcasm>!  PA is a socially conservative state outside of Philly.  They screw with labor too much and costs begin to rise, the same Santorum supporters may turn on him.  Also, if I'm not mistaken Santorum won Montgomery and Bucks counties in 2000.  Not happening next ime pal!

 You Philly assholes have such an ego.  The state doesn't belong to you.  Get it?

Hey...wait a minute! I'm a Philly guy...but I understand what you're saying. Many Dems like to say "well outside of Philly it might be socially conservative but here in the city..." Well that's great but what they have yet to understand is that Philadelphia and Pittsburgh aren't the only two places in the state.

[Jake]

My Prediction

Specter - 54%
Hoeffel - 40%
Clymer - 5%
Summers - 1%

While I think Hoeffel will get 40% (or just alittle bit over that) I don't think he'll be running in the 2006 Dem primary.

Good Prediction