A Couple of PA Senate Race Predictions.

[12th Doctor]

Now that I am back home in the "T", I think that I have a better prespective on the races here in PA in general (as compared to just seeing things in Eire).  I'm going to make three predictions, two obvious, one, not so.

1) I predict a light win for Specter.  I don't predict Specter to get more than 55% of the vote, because....

2) Clymer will recieve about 10% of the total vote. 

Did he just say that!?!?  Yes, I did.

I can honestly say that, traveling back through the various counties of Northwest PA to my home, I was shocked to see an abundance of signs for Jim Clymer, the whole way home.  These signs were not just placed on the side of the road, they were in people's yards.  There seems to be some genuine wieght behind him.  This is backed by the fact that the PA Constitution Party's apartus (for what it is worth) is probably the best such for that party in the country.

3) This is not really a prediction, but... Hoeffel looks like a weak candidate.  Even inthe City of Erie, a Dem strong-hold, he is having trouble getting traction.  Around this part of the state, I have seen these combination "Kerry/Edwards" and the below "Hoeffel" signs.  Bad move for the Kerry campaign.  It could acctually generate a negative effect against Kerry, especially in areas that are Specter friendly, but still unsure about Bush.

At anyrate, if Hoeffel goes below 40%, a real possibility, then he is out of the running for '06 and Santorum is assured re-election.

[Akno21]

If Hoeffel loses so badly he won't be able to run in 2006, that would really hurt the Democrats, since demographics lead me to believe that Hoeffel has the best chance of uprooting him.

[nini2287]

My prediction for election day:

Specter 51
Hoeffel 40
Clymer 8
Summers 1

Though, I think most of Specter's support is "fair weather" (supporters aren't that into him, the opposite of most Reps), so a stormy day on election day could actually be good for both Hoeffel and Bush.

[Keystone Phil]

My Prediction

Specter - 54%
Hoeffel - 40%
Clymer - 5%
Summers - 1%

While I think Hoeffel will get 40% (or just alittle bit over that) I don't think he'll be running in the 2006 Dem primary.

[12th Doctor]

Just a guess...

Specter 52%

Hoeffel 39%

Clymer 9%

Others 1%

Though I think Clymer could go higher than even that.  Like I said, there acctually seems to be a lot of enthusiasim for him in this part of the "T" and this isn't even the most Conservative area of the state.

Clymer is from the South-Central part of the state, which is even more conservative than the North-west (not including the boarder counties).  His higher name reconginition in his home turf could win him good numbers there.

[King]

Hoeffel should have waited, has a better chance against Santorum than Specter. Arlen is like Zell....the only reason they win races in states dominated by the opposite party is because they connect with the opposite party...

[Akno21]

Specter: 52%
Hoeffel: 40%
Clymer: 7%

[Jake]

I actually think Hoeffel will do quite well:

Specter  47%
Hoeffel   44%
Clymer     8%
Summers 1%

In rural NE PA, there is alot of Clymer support and I think Kerry will take PA by 5-8% which will help Hoeffel.

[Keystone Phil]

I actually think Hoeffel will do quite well:

Specter  47%
Hoeffel   44%
Clymer     8%
Summers 1%

In rural NE PA, there is alot of Clymer support and I think Kerry will take PA by 5-8% which will help Hoeffel.

There is no way Hoeffel will come with 3 points of Specter.

Side Note - During the primaries, one of my friends who supported Specter said a big reason why the GOP should nominate him over Toomey was because Specter could help Bush carry PA. I do believe Bush will carry the state but Specter will have nothing to do with it. Recent polls show Specter up about 20 points while Bush is down about 4 or 5. So much for Specter helping Bush out in PA....

[King]

If Toomey endorsed Clymer and most of his primary supporters followed, then the race would really get interesting...

[Keystone Phil]

If Toomey endorsed Clymer and most of his primary supporters followed, then the race would really get interesting...

Toomey would never do that. If he did, yeah it would be interesting but he wouldn't do it. Plus, he wants to run for office again. He'll have a lot of influence within the state party after giving a 24 year incumbent the closest race of his career. And to think people were laughing when someone told them Toomey had a chance...

[Defarge]

Decisive Specter victory, somewhere between 55 and 65 percent. 

[Keystone Phil]

Decisive Specter victory, somewhere between 55 and 65 percent. 

I disagree. Specter won't break 55% with Clymer on the ballot.

[12th Doctor]

Hoeffel should have waited, has a better chance against Santorum than Specter. Arlen is like Zell....the only reason they win races in states dominated by the opposite party is because they connect with the opposite party...

Pennsylvania is not "dominated" by Democrats.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hoeffel should have waited, has a better chance against Santorum than Specter. Arlen is like Zell....the only reason they win races in states dominated by the opposite party is because they connect with the opposite party...

Pennsylvania is not "dominated" by Democrats.

I agree, but Hoeffel HAS a chance in 2006.

[Keystone Phil]

Hoeffel should have waited, has a better chance against Santorum than Specter. Arlen is like Zell....the only reason they win races in states dominated by the opposite party is because they connect with the opposite party...

Pennsylvania is not "dominated" by Democrats.

I agree, but Hoeffel HAS a chance in 2006.

Bringing in liberals like Dean and Hillary Clinton shows what type of Democrat Hoeffel is. It's not playing well with voters now and it won't play well in 2006 if he runs and gets the nomination. Like I've said before, if he can't break 40%, he won't run. If he gets 40-43%, he'll consider it but ultimatley I think he'll decline another campaign for Senate.

[bullmoose88]

Those Kerry/Edwards/Hoffel signs are showing up everywhere. I've seen more of those (maybe 15) than plain ole Hoffel signs (0).

Specter will beat Hoffel by a good 15 points...whether he breaks 55%, is another thing (I doubt it, even if Clymer is strong)

[Keystone Phil]

Those Kerry/Edwards/Hoffel signs are showing up everywhere. I've seen more of those (maybe 15) than plain ole Hoffel signs (0).

Those Kerry/Edwards/Hoeffel signs are pathetic. That's Hoeffel's strategy: Run will Kerry the whole time. The bad thing for Hoeffel: It's failing...miserably. You can't even read the signs anway...

[Brandon H]

Even though Toomey had closer viewpoints to Bush than Specter did, Bush supported Specter. If Bush would have stayed out, Toomey may have won. I think this will actually hurt Bush in the state.

Clymer said that Conservatives would be better off with Hoeffel than Specter since Specter would become chair if the Judiciary Committee though Specter may be more supportive of Bush since he owes his job to Bush.

Seems like Clymer and Peroutka's viewpoints are starting to contradict each other, though that would be since Peroutka is running against Bush while Clymer is being realistic knowing that if a Conservative is going to get in the White House it will be Bush.

[Keystone Phil]

Even though Toomey had closer viewpoints to Bush than Specter did, Bush supported Specter. If Bush would have stayed out, Toomey may have won.

If Bush stayed out of the primary, Toomey would have won the race. I have no doubts about that.

[danwxman]

Funny you mention those damn Clymer signs...somebody had a friggin' field day with them around Harrisburg. I have yet to see *one* in any yard though. Just all over the side of every road..

BTW, seeing a LOT more Kerry/Edwards signs then I ever saw Gore signs. Great news for Kerry in PA.

[Demoteen04]

I see it being
49% Hoeffel
47% Specter
1% Clymer
1% Peroutka

[Demoteen04]

REfrain 3% Clymer
1% peroutka

[Keystone Phil]

1% peroutka

Uh what does he have to do with this race? He's running for President, Demotroll...

[Demoteen04]

Peroutka was supposed to be summers but my copy and paste letter to my jim got messed up because we were talking about peroutka and then it got all screwed up sorry bout that anyway SUMMERS 1%