Next Pope After Benedict...
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  Next Pope After Benedict...
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Author Topic: Next Pope After Benedict...  (Read 24892 times)
DC Al Fine
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« Reply #75 on: February 26, 2013, 07:17:05 AM »

Here's what I personally expect:

1- No older than 70 years old.
2- Someone who has been a cardinal for at least 2 years (I don't think someone made cardinal in the 2012 consistories will be elected).
3- Someone who has not spent the last few days/weeks campaigning.
4- Since a candidate will need 2/3 of the votes to be elected, compromise WILL be needed. Italians will be looking for a Italian Pope, but I think they'll be forced to compromise on that, as Third World candidates could block anyone they don't really like.

Thus, here are the ones I'd keep an eye on:

From the Curia:

Marc Ouellet (Canada) - Holds one of the most important positions at the Curia, and thanks to him some of those in the conclave became bishops back in the past. Would be a very intriguing choice, but many say he's not a great speaker.
Leonardo Sandri (Argentina) - Holds an important position at the Curia, around 70, from a strongly Catholic South-American country.
Peter Turkson (Ghana) - I don't expect him to be elected, as he's been talking too much about being available for the job. Maybe he really doesn't want to be the next Pope. You never know, though.
Raymond Leo Burke (USA) - This might surprise some, but I see him as a potential choice - a 64-year old cardinal who's responsible for the "Supreme Court" of the Vatican.
Jean-Louis Tauran (France) - A darkhorse. He's been a cardinal for almost a decade, and is currently the Cardinal Protodeacon - thus, if not elected, he'll deliver the Habemus Papam speech.
Antonio Cañizares Llovera (Spain) - He's one of those I see as a potential compromise candidate. Called "Little Ratzinger" for his views.

Archbishops:

Christoph Schönborn (Austria) - Some might see him as "too liberal", a strong candidate otherwise.
Odilo Scherer (Brazil) - Young, runs one of the largest archdioceses in the World (São Paulo), and comes from the country with the biggest number of Catholics in the planet.
Óscar A. R. Maradiaga (Honduras) - Strongly connected to Third World causes, has been the President of Caritas Internationalis, and the Vatican's spokesperson within the IMF and the World Bank.
Peter Erdo (Hungary) - I see him as a very strong compromise candidate. A few years ago, he was mentioned a lot as a candidate, but the hype around him has diminished a little bit. He's just 60, and comes from a country that remains mostly Catholic despite the communist regime. He's also the President of Europe's Bishop Conference, and has avoided gaffes through his career so far. Basically, some circumstances remind a lot those present when John Paul II was elected.
Angelo Scola (Italy) - Many see him as the safe choice. Just over 70, I expect him to get a few votes from his Italian peers in the 1st two ballots, then steadily decline as the cardinals look for a compromise candidate.
Crescenzio Sepe (Italy) - Could be the compromise candidate from Italy.
Angelo Bagnasco (Italy) - Like Sepe, could emerge as a compromise candidate over Scola.
Norberto Rivera Carrera (Mexico) - Reminds Cardinal Maradiaga a lot. He comes from a Catholic powerhouse and hasn't been shy talking about Mexican politics.
Kurt Koch (Switzerland) - A darkhorse.




In your opinion, which of these candidates is most likely to reform the Papacy, give it new missionary zeal, and purge it of the pedophile priests that have plagued it? 

It has to be someone who's not a career curialist, someone who's been working inside the machine for the last 10+ years - those will not will deliver reform (in fact, those were the ones who made it impossible for Benedict XVI to introduce the necessary reforms and punish wrongdoers inside the church. For those reasons, I wouldn't touch a Cardinal-Bishop (specially Bertone), and some of the most senior Cardinal-Priests and Cardinal-Deacons.

Also, it has someone with more than the will to tackle the Vatican machine: he'll need political skills to replace basically all the Curia with outsiders. All Curia members automatically lose their job when there's a papal vacancy. Benedict XVI ended up keeping many John Paul II nominees, believing he could count on their experience to clean things up from the inside. In the end, that was a big mistake.

The best chance for real reform is someone from the outside. A Cardinal-Priest who's been flying under the radar, an archbishop who's been running a large archdiocese. I really like Erdo and Scherer, I think they fit the bill quite well. Tagle and Dolan would be good picks, but I doubt they'll be elected because they've been cardinals for less than one year. Ouellet would be cool, but I don't know if he has the political skills.

About the political skills of Ouellet, he got pretty much hated in his archdiocese and had terrible approvals and was despised by most Quebekers (which is a very secular society), but, that may have been his goal.

Be hated enough so he is moved into Vatican and getting strong conservative creditentials among cardinals.

True. The cardinals probably see a bunch of pro-abortion, pro-SSM people booing Oullette and think he must be legit Tongue
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