Republican Landslide 2012: What Causes It?

[Beet]

If Obama fails to learn from his mistakes.

[zorkpolitics]

Reelection campaigns are about the incumbent, it really doesn't matter too much who the Republican nominee is, it matters more how bad the economy is.  A Republican landslide is certainly possible:

Senario 1). If unemployment is above 10% and inflation is above 10% we have the return of Stagflation and Obama would lose badly enough to cause a Republican landslide.

Senario 2)  Obama "loses" Iraq and Afghanistan.  GM fails after sucking up $100 billion of taxpayer money; healthcare premiums rise dramatically, the economy goes into a "double dip" recession because of increased business costs from cap and trade, healthcare reform, banking reform, tax reform, and a huge backlash against "socialism" leads to a Republican landslide.

[pbrower2a]

Only if Barack Obama turns out to be another Jimmy Carter.

Or George Herbert Walker Bush -- someone who achieves everything he wants to achieve in his first term and fails to express what he would do for a Second Act.

No way is he another Gerald Ford, who got into office through the back door after two disgraceful resignations, first a bribe-taking Vice-President and then a power-abusing President who both wrecked the credibility of his party.

Herbert Hoover? Not likely. The economic damage of the Financial Meltdown of 2008 seems to have taken its course. The President hasn't promised milk and honey -- or a car in every garage and a chicken in every pot.

William Howard Taft? Obama didn't succeed a strong incumbent who had the constitutional right to succeed him. 

Grover Cleveland? 1890s politics are no longer relevant.

[DariusNJ]

If Obama is as unpopular as George Bush was among moderates and conservative democrats, but the left wing still loves Obama enough to help win the Democratic primaries.

And Maine would go Republican in this scenario, it's not as Democratic friendly as most people think. It's closer politically to New Hampshire than to the other liberal northeastern states.

[Deldem]

When hell freezes over. A landslide is simply not possible against a candidate like Obama. Certainly, it's possible for a Republican to win (if they are able to run as a moderate and they have charisma), but it's simply impossible to do that well against Obama due to his personality and ground game.

[Alexander Hamilton]

When hell freezes over. A landslide is simply not possible against a candidate like Obama. Certainly, it's possible for a Republican to win (if they are able to run as a moderate and they have charisma), but it's simply impossible to do that well against Obama due to his personality and ground game.

Herbert Hoover ring a bell?

[5280]

Obama 15-25% approval rating

[Deldem]

When hell freezes over. A landslide is simply not possible against a candidate like Obama. Certainly, it's possible for a Republican to win (if they are able to run as a moderate and they have charisma), but it's simply impossible to do that well against Obama due to his personality and ground game.

Herbert Hoover ring a bell?

Herbert Hoover certainly wasn't charismatic, the conditions were far worse than now, and he was beaten by someone with incredible appeal to the masses. Hoover always came across as cold and uncaring. And his win was inflated in 1928 thanks to bigots voting against the urban wet Catholic Al Smith.

[Mechaman]

When hell freezes over. A landslide is simply not possible against a candidate like Obama. Certainly, it's possible for a Republican to win (if they are able to run as a moderate and they have charisma), but it's simply impossible to do that well against Obama due to his personality and ground game.

Herbert Hoover ring a bell?

Herbert Hoover certainly wasn't charismatic, the conditions were far worse than now, and he was beaten by someone with incredible appeal to the masses. Hoover always came across as cold and uncaring. And his win was inflated in 1928 thanks to bigots voting against the urban wet Catholic Al Smith.

The American media was saying that Herbert Hoover would turn out to be the "greatest president ever" in 1929 right before the Great Depression happened. In early 1992 HW Bush was called "unbeatable" by so many people SNL made a sketch where the Democrats are debating on why they (the candidates) should not be chosen to lose to HW Bush. Saying that it is "impossible" for Obama to lose in a landslide, even with his personality and "ground game", is illogical. The word "impossible" is a word with a pretty damn strong enforcement behind it. I make a point of not using the word "impossible" for things that are highly unlikely, and I think it would serve you well to avoid using it in this type of situation.
Also, it depends on what one considers a landslide. For me I would have to say 400 evs or more is a landslide and I believe that although right now it is unlikely, it is still possible for someone to score a landslide victory over Obama. It is very unwise to gauge the winds of political change my friend.

Remember, there were many people in 2004 who thought that the next 20 years would be owned by the Republicans. Just a thought.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

10% unemployment, much higher deficit and debt than was projected, and stunted economic growth may lead to a Republican landslide in the stars align. Either way, it will be tough for Obama to win reelection if we are still at those levels in 2012.

[Mint]

Mechman is completely right, George HW Bush went from having something like a 90% approval rating to being so unpopular that a 3rd party candidate actually looked like a viable replacement at one point. Carter took office with approval ratings comparable to Obama and the Republican Party in shambles thanks to Nixon and co's corruption and incompetence. Look how that turned out. And actually, if you examine polls both W Bush and Carter had better approval ratings overall around this point in their presidency than Obama. He's nothing exceptional in that department.

Now as to what I think would cause a landslide defeat? What I've been talking about the last few months, full scale economic meltdown. There's a lot of things which could trigger it ranging from commercial/residential real estate (we already have record foreclosures), the derivatives market bubble popping, bank failures overwhelming FDIC (we've had 81 so far this year), china's growing uneasiness over our debt, etc. There's also the Afghani/Pakistan and Mexican (Narco Gang) situations to consider too along with North Korea and all the other usual suspects.

[Mechaman]

Mechman is completely right, George HW Bush went from having something like a 90% approval rating to being so unpopular that a 3rd party candidate actually looked like a viable replacement at one point. Carter took office with approval ratings comparable to Obama and the Republican Party in shambles thanks to Nixon and co's corruption and incompetence. Look how that turned out. And actually, if you examine polls both W Bush and Carter had better approval ratings overall around this point in their presidency than Obama. He's nothing exceptional in that department.

Now as to what I think would cause a landslide defeat? What I've been talking about the last few months, full scale economic meltdown. There's a lot of things which could trigger it ranging from commercial/residential real estate (we already have record foreclosures), the derivatives market bubble popping, bank failures overwhelming FDIC (we've had 81 so far this year), china's growing uneasiness over our debt, etc. There's also the Afghani/Pakistan and Mexican (Narco Gang) situations to consider too along with North Korea and all the other usual suspects.

But you're obviously a hardcore tool of the Republican reich wing my friend. There is no way in hell or hades that Obama is going to lose in 2012. He is the definition of political perfection. Hell, Obama is likely to win an electoral landslide of over 9000 votes. Because unexplainable fanboyism should have more impact on a candidate's realistic chances than right wing hackery (ie anybody who possibly entertains any possibility of a Republican victory in 2012).

But to be a bit more serious, I can kind of see why many Democrats consider Obama bulletproof right now. After all, the GOP isn't doing a good job of convincing people that they have sanes in their party. On top of what Mint just listed, the Republicans would have to find somebody who at least has a modicum of sanity to score a landslide election. If conditions do go to hell in a handbasket, anybody short of the mental insanity of Palin/Jindal could score a close electoral victory over Obama. However, the sanes in many states would prevent the mainstream conservative from winning even 300 plus votes. It would have to take a totally new brand of Republican to be able to score a 400 plus electoral landslide. There is only so many ways one can sell an ideology over and over and expect results. I believe this is what happened in 1984 when Ronald Reagan's brand spankin new (not really) brand of conservative Republican ideology triumphed over Walter Mondale's ancient cobweb brand of Democrat liberalism. The idea isn't really to abandon old ideas, but NOT TO SELL THEM LIKE THEY WERE THE FIRST TIME. Believe it or not but people can fall for the same thing again if you give it a different name. Hell, I'm shocked at how many people consider Ronald Reagan to somehow be a "libertarian" nowdays. If Ronald Reagan would be considered a libertarian nowdays this country is in a hell of a shape.

If people in this nation will buy that Ronald Reagan was a libertarian, there is a chance if the right Republican candidate came along with exceptionally good skills at bullsh*ttery and absolutely horrenduous at making verbal gaffes they could sell themselves as a whole new brand of Republican that is different than your "typical American conservative", even if they are your typical conservative. I mean really, just read this wikipedia article on one of my state US House Representatives, OK-4 representative Tom Cole:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Cole

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOLWUT?
If Wikipedia could fall for this bullsh*t, so can the average American citizen.

But back to the point:
Obama is a very gifted politician, but I think it is unwise at this point to conclude that just because the Right is in shambles right now that there isn't a Republican who is just as equally gifted if not better at salesmanship than Obama. For all we know they could be hiding their good political skills to use in the event that the Obama presidency turns out to be a disaster so they could have a pretty damn good chance at winning election. If I had a choice to run for president after a failed presidency from my own party or a possible failed presidency from the opposition I sure as hell will choose the latter option. For all we know Matt Blunt could be a leading candidate for 2012. Do not underestimate the cunnery of politicians ever. Of course if Obama is as gifted as many people claim, the aforementioned statement could be applied to him also. In summation, the whole idea of analyzing politics is a headache at the very least if not a full on migraine headache.

[Mint]

I agree that in order to win, the Republicans need a candidate no one is talking about now and significant re-branding. However, I also think the 'batsh**t' wing is becoming more 'libertarian' now in the paranoid 'government is out to get us' sense. Look at what a lot of mainstream Republicans who didn't question the Pat Act, FISA, etc. have had to say about the Department of Homeland Security lately. And in some ways, that's just a return to the sort of attitudes they had as recently as the late '90s when they were talking about 'nation building' and focused around Reno and people like the ATF (along with all the Clinton conspiracy theories and things like that).

Honestly, in a lot of ways the state of the country now seems similar to the early '60s: a 'moderate' Republican losing to a minority Democrat, alarmed conservatives and libertarians talking about kicking out the 'me too/country club elite' Republican leadership, growing political unrest, etc. I could see something like 1964 happening again, except with the opposite electoral result thanks to the conditions I outlined... Actually if you look at things like the pew/gallup polls lately you can already see majorities calling themselves conservative and opposing policies like the bail outs, the stimulus, gun control, abortion 'on demand', etc. There's definitely a significant backlash setting in at the moment.

[ag]

When hell freezes over. A landslide is simply not possible against a candidate like Obama. Certainly, it's possible for a Republican to win (if they are able to run as a moderate and they have charisma), but it's simply impossible to do that well against Obama due to his personality and ground game.

Herbert Hoover ring a bell?

Hoover wasn't particularly charismatic, was he?

[ag]

Obama could well loose, but for a landslide this big, I guess, we'd need:

1. Continuing economic crisis. High inflation, high unemployment, depressed real estate prices, lousy times on Wall Street. Things have to be crappy - but not disastrous (if it is truly disastrous, I wouldn't be surprised by a reverse effect, especially if too many people are very dependent on dole/government employment and are afraid to loose those).

2. Clear inefficiency in the government. I am not talking economic efficiency - I am talking bureaucratic and political efficiency. Obama administration hasn't gotten anything of significance through the Congress in a couple of years. The health reform bill is either not passed or else passed in a version that's an obvious bureaucratic nightmare that's already being felt. Crime's up (if there are racial overtones - all the better). A few bad riots

3. A couple of clear foreign policy failures. Continued losses in Afghanistan, a nasty terrorist attack on US forces abroad leads to a hasty retreat from somewhere, etc. Bad turn of events down South: complete disintegration of law and order in Mexico, massive migrant flow streams North and an anti-US gov't comes to power in Mexico in July 2012 elections.

Give me all that and I could see even CA and CT going