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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #50 on: March 01, 2004, 07:55:19 AM »

Oh sh*t...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #51 on: March 13, 2004, 02:56:40 AM »

There's a new gigantic opinion poll by Outlook magazine and MDRA polling agency...
The NDA should get about 40,6% of the vote (up 2,1)
Congress and its Aliies should get about 37,1 (+0,4)
others about 22,3 (-2,5)
This should translate into 280-290 seats for the NDA (from 280)
159-169 for Congress and Allies (154)
89-99 for others (109)
However, the BJP is supposed to gain seats anc COngress to lose seats. Congress just has more allies this time around...

There are short state-by-state analyses of those states included in the survey:
PUNJAB Akali Dal-BJP alliance will make gains, Cong state government faction-ridden and unpopular
HARYANA Gains for Congress as INLD-BJP alliance has broken up and INLD state government is unpopular
DELHI Last time BJP swept the seven seats, Congress will wrest about half of them away
RAJASTHAN BJP will improve on the current 16-7 split
UTTAR PRADESH If BJP, SP, BSP and Cong all go it alone, as appears likely right now, expect slight gains for BJP and SP, losses for BSP, Cong stable. A BSP-Cong alliance, still possible, should make handy gains resulting in small losses for BJP and SP
BIHAR Congress-RJD alliance stronger than last time, alliance with Lok Jan Shakti will also help. JDU in disarray, BJP holding up better
CHHATTISGARH Cong in disarray after Ajit Jogi's departure. BJP might even sweep all eleven seats
ORISSA BJP-Biju JD combine will likely hold its current 19 out of 21 tally. Biju JD state government is returned on increased majority
WEST BENGAL Left Front will be dominant once again, Trinamool Congress will lose seats, Cong may gain a handful
ASSAM Last time Cong got 8 seats, Asom Gana Parishad 4, BJP 2. Since then the AGP has joined and left the NDA. The three parties are polling remarkably equal now, which means seat losses for Cong
GUJARAT Last time the BJP got 20 out of 26 seats, a slight gain now is more likely than a slight loss
MADHYA PRADESH All set for a BJP sweep
MAHARASHTRA The Cong-NCP alliance should outpoll the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, gain 10-15 seats. Central Maharashtra will go for them, and Mumbai will probably be split, but the Vidarbha (far East) and the Konkan Coast will stay with the NDA
KARNATAKA the poll predicts an outbreak of ticket-splitting here, with the BJP making gains in the Lok Sabha, to about parity with Cong, but the Cong state government reelected easily due to the remaining JDS strength. (Many people will vote NDA nationally, JDS in the state, thus splitting the vote and letting more Cong assembly members in)
ANDHRA PRADESH Congress will certainly improve on its current tally of five. The alliance with the TRS should pay rich dividends. That said, the TDP-BJP combine will still hold a majority of Andhra seats, and the TDP state government will limp into another term
TAMIL NADU The DMK-Cong-etcetera alliance is set to sweep most of the state

Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Jharkand, Goa, Kerala, the Northeastern Hill States except Assam and the Union Territories except Delhi were not included in the survey.
The pollsters identified 102 constituencies across the nation. In each of them they picked three assembly segments and, in each of these, three communities (one town and two villages in rural constituencies, three neighborhoods in urban ones). This means the mammoth poll was actually 918 simultaneous mini polls with about 130 voters in each, 12,249 in all. In each poll, they interviewed exactly 50% men and 50% women, and only one person per household.
We'll see how accurate it's going to be...


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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: March 13, 2004, 04:34:02 PM »

I find it hard to believe that INC will not gain a bunch of seats in Orissa.  Back in 1999 BJP-BJD took 19 of 21 seats.  This time there are significant defections from BJD to INC as well as an INC alliance with OSP.  It is really now a virtual tie.  

As for Assam, BJP and AGP talks broke down so INC might not lose that many seats.  

In Jarkrahand, the INC-JMM-RJD could capture more seats than BJP-JD(U).  

NDA will for sure lose ground in Himachral Pradesh, Uttranchal, New Dehli, Hayarana, and Kashmir/Jammu.  

It really comes down to Uttar Pradesh and it BJP and take a good deal more than the 29 seats it got in 1999.  Also, I am not so sure one can call a clean sweep for BJP over INC in Gujurat, Madaya Pradesh, Rajastan, and Chattisgrah.  The polls might show a clean sweep but I think the BJP will be luck to replicate its 1999 performance in those areas come voting day.  
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #53 on: March 14, 2004, 05:31:37 AM »

The poll already assumes no alliance between AGP and BJP.

Seems the chances for a Congress-BSP alliance are off. Mayawati has said she'd go it alone because BJP, SP and Congress, accordig to her, have exactly the same ideology anyway.
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jaichind
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« Reply #54 on: March 14, 2004, 10:53:58 AM »

The poll already assumes no alliance between AGP and BJP.

Seems the chances for a Congress-BSP alliance are off. Mayawati has said she'd go it alone because BJP, SP and Congress, accordig to her, have exactly the same ideology anyway.

I know and read the poll already on the issue of AGP and BJP.  My point is that in a multi-cornered contest the distribution of votes is far more relevent.  So even if the poll correctly estimates relative levels of support any estimate of seat totals will be quite futile.  

As for UP. I am taking a non-CW view on the non-alliance of INC with neither SP nor BSP.  I tend to think this will hurt BJP.  BJP tends to be strong in upper caste, is trying to expand its base in the backward castes and dalits.  INC used to be catch call party with weakness in the backward castes but now has only pockets of support among upper castes, dalits, and muslims.  BSP is strong among dailts and trying to move to Muslims.  SP is strong in backward castes and has significant support among Muslims.  Upper castes are very hostile to BSP and SP and the BSP case for not forming an alliance with INC is that the INC cannot transfer its upper caste vote to BSP, which is true.  The mulsims tends to support INC but switched to SP after the INC government at the center back in 1991 failed to stop the destruction of the masque at Ayodyda followed the failure of the INC government in Maharastra so stop anti-Muslim riots in Mumbai back in 1993.  If the INC goes it alone and captures back Muslim support in UP, the upper caste vote might swing back to INC and away from BJP.  For sure an  SP-INC or BSP-INC allaince will get very little upper caste support.  The upper caste vote in UP is fairly unhappy with BJP for trying to move more backward caste leaders into its leadership.  In 1999 the BJP only got 29 seats in UP as opposed to 50+ seats in 1996 and 1998 because of upper caste protest to Kaylan Sighn, himself a backward caste leader of the BJP.  The BJP after 1999 ousted Kaylan Singn to try to pull back upper caste vote and managed to preseve its base in the 2002 assembly elections.  The return of Kaylan Singh to BJP for sure wil pull in more backward caste vote for BJP but if INC goes it alone and runs a good campaign the BJP will lose the upper caste vote to INC.  So ironicly, if INC plays its cards right, the BJP will be a net loser from the failure of INC to form an alliance with either BSP or SP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: March 14, 2004, 07:52:25 PM »

From the Hindu Part I


IF THE media were to decide elections, the general elections to the 14th Lok Sabha would be a pointless exercise. The verdict is already out: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is sure to return to power. Almost all sections of the media have said this from the day the NDA decided to advance the polls. Two serious nationwide surveys have supported this forecast, though in varying degrees. Add to this the umpteen number of newspaper articles, views of poll pundits and the astrologers. The hawa, as they say, favours the ruling coalition.

I am not convinced of this established wisdom. I am not convinced that it is a one-sided race all the way, that the NDA's majority is a foregone conclusion and that the Congress is about to slip down to its worst-ever performance. I am not sure that the electoral race can be called at this stage, and that even if one were to call it at this stage the results would be quite what the media think to be the case. This is, of course, not to say that there is no substance in the conventional wisdom. Nor do I dismiss the two nationwide surveys published by India Today and Outlook (I do not include in this category some other purely urban opinion polls that are hard to take seriously). It is just that years of watching elections has convinced me of the value of political commonsense and has taught me to disregard hype.

Before I set out my reasons for not subscribing to the prevailing wisdom about an NDA victory, let me first note what I believe to be valuable in this wisdom. First, it is true that the ruling coalition does not confront an electorate in a mood of total rejection of the sort we saw in the national elections of 1977, 1980, 1989 or 1996. The absence of a strong `anti-incumbency' mood at the end of a nearly full term of the government is no mean achievement.

The second element of truth in the prevailing wisdom is related to the first. It is true that at the core of this achievement for the NDA is the image of the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in the eyes of the public. All the opinion polls so far have shown that his image has remained remarkably unaffected by the various scams and scandals that have taken place in the last five years. He is in any case substantially ahead of the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, the only other name in the race.

And finally, there is no doubt that the organisational capacity of the BJP election machinery is way ahead of the Congress. This was clearly in evidence in the way Congress lost the Assembly elections in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress may have recovered somewhat, but there are signs of the same in the Lok Sabha elections as well: the BJP is a well-oiled machine, while in the Congress the left hand does not know what the right is doing.

The question therefore is, what conclusions can one draw from these facts. It would be fair to conclude from these facts that the ruling NDA is not headed for an electoral debacle or a wipe-out of the kind many ruling parties have faced in the past. One could also conclude that the BJP-led alliance is better placed to exploit the electoral opportunities that present themselves than its rival.

But, to my mind, all this is not enough to conclude that the NDA is headed for a repeat of its performance and is sure to come back to power. For this to be true, one has to produce evidence that there is not only no anti-incumbency mood against the NDA, but also that there is a positive sentiment, something of a `feel good' factor across the country. One has to demonstrate that the preference for Vajpayee will prevail over other considerations in the voting decision. One needs to show that the BJP is already so close to the magic number that its organisational advantage is enough to make the difference. I have not yet seen evidence that convinces me on these counts. Therefore I remain an agnostic, as far as the final outcome is concerned, and wait for more reliable evidence.

A fundamental flaw in thinking about what is going to happen in this election is that we tend to see things through old frames while the political realities have changed on the ground. Gone are the days of nationwide swings in favour of one party leading to waves or sweeps in elections. Ever since 1996, the Lok Sabha elections are no longer a single nationwide race — for all practical purposes the general election now is 28 electoral races being held simultaneously; the national-level verdict is nothing but the sum total of all the State-level verdicts. A State is the effective unit of political choice even in Lok Sabha elections.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: March 14, 2004, 07:53:23 PM »

From The Hindu part II

Therefore, the most useful way to think about electoral prospects is to look at each State separately and assess the type of party competition, nature of social alliances and the current electoral scenario. That is what I propose to do in this series of articles. The question therefore is not whether the NDA has an advantage at the national level. That it undoubtedly has. The real question is whether the BJP and its various allies can convert this advantage into seats in each State. That remains an open question. Before we turn to each State in this series, let us begin with an overview. It may be useful to think of the coming electoral battle in terms of three battlegrounds and group all the States accordingly into one of the three types of contests.

The `Western Front,' from Punjab downwards right up to Kerala including the whole of old Madhya Pradesh, represents the zone of opportunity for the NDA. This is where it is likely to put up a good show and record gains in terms of votes and seats.

The `Eastern Front' includes all the States on the eastern coast from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal and extends to Bihar and Jharkhand on the one hand and the North-East on the other. The NDA had hit a peak here in the last election and faces an uphill task of cutting its losses to a minimum in this zone.

And finally, there is the `Northern Front' comprising Uttar Pradesh and a group of small States in the northwest. This zone is smaller than the other two but this is where the real uncertainty lies and where the real battle will be fought.

The principal nature of the political contest in the Western Front is that of the Congress versus the BJP. The NDA had bagged 108 of the 202 seats in this region in 1999 with the BJP alone getting 88. The Congress on the other hand won 70 seats with its allies adding another four. The BJP has allies only in Punjab and Maharashtra, while the Congress has allies only in Maharashtra and Kerala.

The BJP enjoys an advantage in this direct face-off with the Congress. The Congress regimes in Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are well past their honeymoon period, while the BJP has the advantage of freshly elected regimes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and to some extent in Gujarat. However, the NDA cannot expect to gain a large number of seats here compared to its performance in 1999. Except Punjab, Karnataka and Kerala, the NDA did very well in this entire belt. While the NDA votes may improve in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP alliance may reduce the NDA's tally. In Kerala, the BJP is still far short of converting any gains of votes into seats. All in all, the NDA cannot expect to add more than 20 seats to its existing tally of 108 in this zone.

On the Eastern Front, the NDA will be engaged in a defensive battle. Here the contest involves principally the allies of the BJP and other regional political parties. Barring Jharkhand, none of the States will witness a direct BJP-Congress contest. Here the NDA had peaked in the previous Lok Sabha elections winning 136 of a total of 223 seats, of which 89 went to the BJP's allies.

The NDA, particularly the BJP's allies, has a lot to lose here. It nearly swept Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Jharkhand last time and will need to do exceptionally well to retain those seats. The nature of the anti-NDA coalition in Tamil Nadu and the state of the BJP's allies in Bihar and West Bengal will make it difficult for the NDA to repeat its performance in these States. The only place where the NDA can hope to retain and improve its position is Assam and other northeastern States, but then all of them account for only 25 seats. The NDA would be lucky if it contains its losses to about 40 seats. In a worst-case scenario, the losses for the NDA could go up to 60 seats or more.

That leaves the Northern Front, which itself can be divided into Uttar Pradesh and a group of small States in the northwest. The second group, comprising Jammu and Kashmi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana and Delhi, accounts for 32 seats of which the Congress won only one last time. The BJP swept this region, winning 21 seats with its allies picking another six.

This time it will be very difficult for the BJP to repeat this performance, especially after the split with the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana. In Uttar Pradesh, which should be seen as a region in itself, the situation is still unclear since the alliances are yet to be firmed up. In any case, the BJP does not have big gains to look forward to here and should be content if it can retain the 25 seats it has now. If the Congress-BSP alliance does not take place, the SP can hope to add to its tally at the expense of the rest. If the BSP and the Congress do come together, the combine could inflict considerable damages on both the SP and the BJP. The NDA cannot possibly improve upon its tally in the northern zone; its losses may vary from none to a loss of up to 20 seats.

The final overall outcome will depend upon how the electoral battle on all the three fronts plays itself out. This is not the place or the stage to speculate on what the final outcome will be. But if the scenario presented above makes any sense, at least three types of outcomes are possible. The first scenario is that of the NDA coming back with a majority, perhaps a reduced majority. The second is that of the NDA falling short of majority by a small number, say up to 20. In that case the anti-NDA parties would still be considerably behind the NDA and the latter could draw upon some unattached parties such as the SP to form the Government.

But if the NDA does poorly in any two of the three battlegrounds, especially if the Congress-BSP alliance comes about, a third possibility is also open. The combined strength of the Congress, its allies and the Left could cross the majority mark. All the three scenarios lie within a very small range and can come about with a mere 50 seats changing hands. But the political consequences of the three scenarios are radically different. It is still an open race.

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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: March 14, 2004, 07:55:20 PM »

I posted an essay from The Hindu which mimic my views that the NDA does not have it in the bag.  It is like the 1998 USA Congressional elections.  The national trend pointed toward a GOP gain but if one went disctict by disctrict a different result emerged.  Same here, a state b state analysis shows that if anything, NDA wil lose ground from 1999.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #58 on: March 14, 2004, 11:09:47 PM »

Yeah, a lot of truth in that...Let's just keep hoping...
Maybe we should also hope for an Indian drubbing in the cricket series and a health scare for Atalji...Now those two events together should sweep Congress to victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: March 15, 2004, 11:28:28 AM »

Yeah, a lot of truth in that...Let's just keep hoping...
Maybe we should also hope for an Indian drubbing in the cricket series and a health scare for Atalji...Now those two events together should sweep Congress to victory.

All my Indian friends here in NYC, regardless of political loyalties, think that BJP will sweep the polls.  Many think that BJP will get a majority on their own, something I think is just not possible.  BJP at best might get to 200 but no more.   I guess my friends have been taken in by the "India Shineing" campaign.  I am sure that INC + allies will not get a majority but do not rule out a minority INC+allies government supported by the Left Front after the 2004 elections.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #60 on: March 15, 2004, 11:04:43 PM »

The BJP will definitely not get an absolute majority. They'd have to win almost all the seats they contest for that.
But I'm here, I'm around Indians in Bangalore rather than NYC, and trust me, Congress won't win. Unless the cricketers lose all remaining matches of the Pakistan tour, that is.
That the regional thing isn't working as well for the BJP as last time is obvious from that Outlook survey too, by the way. It says the BJP+allies will gain 2% of the votes, Congress+allies 0,5%, but Congress+allies will gain more seats.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #61 on: March 21, 2004, 02:31:38 PM »

BBC: Rahul Gandhi to stand for Congress in Amethi
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #62 on: March 25, 2004, 03:58:16 AM »

This is just to bore you...
Party's percentage-wise break up in big states last time.
Punjab INC 38,4 Akali Dal 28,6 BJP 9,2 two different Akali Dal splinter groups 4,6 and 3,4 BSP 3,8 CPI 3,7
Haryana INC 34,9 BJP 29,2 INLD 28,7
Rajasthan BJP 47,2 INC 45,1
Gujarat BJP 52,5 INC 45,4
Uttar Pradesh (includes Uttaranchal) BJP 27,6 SP 24,1 BSP 22,1 INC 14,7 independents 3,6
Bihar (includes Jharkand) RJD 28,3 BJP 23,0 JD (U) 20,8 INC 8,8 independents 4,2
Madhya Pradesh (inludes Chhattisgarh) BJP 46,6 INC 43,9 BSP 5,2
West Bengal CPM 35,6 Trinamul Congress 26,0 INC 13,3 BJP 11,1 RSP 4,3 CPI 3,5 FB 3,5
Assam INC 38,4 BJP 29,8 AGP 11,9 independents 9,4
Orissa INC 36,9 Biju JD 33,0 BJP 24,6
Maharashtra INC 29,7 NCP 21,6 BJP 21,2 Shiv Sena 16,9 independents 3,3
Karnataka INC 45,4 BJP 27,2 JD (U) 13,3 JD (S) 10,9
Andhra Pradesh INC 42,8 TDP 39,9 BJP 9,9
Kerala INC 39,4 CPM 27,9 CPI 7,6 BJP 6,6 Muslim League 5,3 independents 4,8
Tamil Nadu AIADMK 25,7 DMK 23,1 INC 11,1 PMK 8,2 TMC 7,2 BJP 7,1 MDMK 6,0
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« Reply #63 on: April 14, 2004, 01:28:12 PM »

Hi evryone, I deeply regret to announce a sweeping BJP victory in these vital provincial elections.

They have swept the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh (near three-fourths majority) and look like they have evn wrested the state of Chhatisgarh which had a progressive Christian Chief Minister (whom of course they vilified as being anti-hindu and part of a worldwide Christian conspiracy)

The Silver Lining is a sweeping congress victory in the prestigious territory of Delhi (where the central government is based)

To be fair there were justified reasons for anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where governance was terrible. This was more of an anti-congress vote which happened to benefit the BJP as the main opposition.

In Delhi which had a sucessful congress govt. the voters bucked the trend and delivered a two-third legislative majority to incumbent Congress CM Sheila Diksh**t.

Chhatisgargh is the only case of a performing government kicked out because of the BJP's communal and hate-based campaign.
Shows it can still work in some areas.

Not a reason to dispair yet for India's secular identity but serious reason for worry. If nationally the congress party is unable to provide a decent govt. then that leaves no real national opposition for the BJP to win a majority at the center on its own (the end of India as we know it Sad ). Okay that may be a bit harsh but lets just say I'm not looking forward to that prospect.

My main concern is that Prime Minister Vajpayee will retire at some point during the next term of Parliament and that someone like LK Advani will assume power. Vajpayee has been relatively successful at keeping the BJP coalition moderate in nature but I've heard that Advani is considered to be more extremist than Vajpayee and that his style of government could be much more confrontational. I dread to think about the prospect of a extremist-orientated Prime Minister with an outright parliamentary majority

I think the best outcome for India and the world would be a Congress (I) victory but, if the BJP has to win, I would much prefer it to be with a minority government
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #64 on: April 14, 2004, 01:31:11 PM »

The idea of the BJP getting an overall majority is scary... Sad
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dunn
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« Reply #65 on: April 20, 2004, 03:29:29 AM »

It's start today

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/04/19/india.poll/index.html

Lewis? give us some insight
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #66 on: April 20, 2004, 03:36:45 AM »

I'm up in Rajasthan right now, where they won't vote til 10th May. I'll go to Delhi today and then to Kerala, where they also vote only on tenth May...And, travelling, I've stopped reading papers regularly...I do knwo that I recently saw two newsmagazines with polling-related covers that were quite contradictory: One proclaimed "Now NDA shining in assembly polls too?" and had a poll showing the BJD-BJP combine in Orissa with another landslide, the TDP just about limping home with a majority and Karnataka's Congress government going down, though I can't really see that happening. They'll lose seats in the Interior but they'll gain bigtime in Bangalore and on the coast.
The other predicted just 230-260 seats for the NDA, which would mean a hung parliament. (Congress and allies were predicted at 170-200).
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dunn
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« Reply #67 on: April 20, 2004, 03:39:45 AM »

Check our forum if you can Lewis
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #68 on: April 24, 2004, 09:20:38 AM »

Different exit polls all showed the NDA ahead amongst Constituenciies voting on the first round, with totals ranging from 69 to 93 out of 140. In the last election they took 88 of these, so they might register slight losses. But there isn't really any chance of Atalji not staying PM unless maybe if the SP really sweeps UP or something...Oh, and Chandrababu Naidu is probably out in Andhra, while S.M.Krishna might survive on a whisper in Karnataka.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #69 on: April 25, 2004, 11:50:24 PM »

Okay, I bought THE WEEK's Election Special and now have a constituency-by-constituency guide to the Elections...
Just for kicks, I've got a constituency-by-constituency prediction ready! (I spent 52 hours on a train...)
Note that this prediction is probably not friendly enough to the NDA. Also note that it presumes swings that, while not exactly uniform, are certainly more uniform than they'll actually be. I'm just wondering how many I'll get right...

Jammu & Kashmir
INC 2 (Baramulla, Jammu)
PDP 2 (Anantnag, Ladakh) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 1 (Udhampur)
J&K NC 1 (Srinagar) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
J&K NC 4 BJP ALLY
BJP 2

Himachal Pradesh
BJP 3
INC 1 (Shimla)

1999 result
BJP 3
HVC 1 BJP ALLY

Uttaranchal
BJP 3
INC 1 (Nainital)
BSP 1 (Hardwar) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 4
INC 1

Punjab
SAD 5 (Tarn Taran, Jalandhar, Bhalanda, Fardikot, Ferozepur) BJP ALLY
INC 4 (Phillaur, Ropar, Ludhiana, Patiala)
BJP 3 (Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur)
SAD (M) 1 (Sangrur) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
INC 8
SAD 2
BJP 1
SAD (M) 1
CPI 1 THIRD PARTY

Chandigarh
BJP 1

1999 result
INC 1

Haryana
INC 6 (Kurukshetra, Karnal, Rohtak, Faridabad, Hissar, Sora)
BJP 3 (Ambala, Sonepat, Mahendragarh)
INLD 1 (Bhiwani) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 5
INLD 5 BJP ALLY

Delhi
INC 4
BJP 3 (New Delhi, South Delhi, Outer Delhi)

1999 result
BJP 7

To be continued...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #70 on: April 26, 2004, 12:16:06 AM »

Rajasthan
BJP 19
INC 6 (Bikaner, Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Nagaur, Salumber, Banswara)

1999 result
BJP 16
INC 9

Gujarat
BJP 21
INC 5 (Surendranagar, Patan, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Kapadvanj)

1999 result
BJP 20
INC 6

Daman & Diu
INC 1 (as 1999)

Dadra & Nagar Haveli
INC 1 (1999: ind 1)

Uttar Pradesh
SP 42 (1999 constituencies plus Bijnor, Shahjahanpur, Sitapur, Hardoi, Sultanpur, Bansgaon, Gorakhpur, Salempur, Lalganj, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Chail, Hamirpur, Ghatampur, Saharanpur) THIRD PARTY
BJP 23 (1999 constituencies mines Bijnor, Bansgaon, Gorakhpur, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Hapur; plus Moradabad, Pilibhit, Jalaun, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar)
INC 6 (Rampur, Rae Bareli, Pratapgarh, Amethi, Jhansi, Kanpur)
BSP 5 (Amroha, Shahabad, Akbarpur, Ghosi, Banda)
RLD 3 (Hapur, Baghpat, Kairana) THIRD PARTY/CONGRESS ALLY
SJP 1 (Ballia) THIRD PARTY/CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
SP 26
BJP 25
BSP 14
INC 9
LTC 2 BJP ALLY
RLD 2 THIRD PARTY
SJP 1 THIRD PARTY
ind 1 BJP ALLY

Madhya Pradesh
BJP 26
INC 3 (Guna, Chhindwara, Jhabua)

1999 result
BJP 21
INC 8

Chhattisgarh
BJP 9
INC 2 (Surguja, Mahasamund)

1999 result
BJP 8
INC 3

Orissa
Biju JD 10 (unchanged) BJP ALLY
BJP 7
INC 4 (Berhampur, Koraput, Nowrangpur, Dhenkanal)

1999 result
Biju JD 10
BJP 9
INC 2

Bihar
RJD 17 (Bettiah, Motihari, Gopalganj, Siwan, Chapra, Vaishali, Samastipur, Barh, Madhepura, Kishanganj, Monghyr, Arrah, Buxar, Sasaram, Bikramganj, Jahanabad, Gaya) CONGRESS ALLY
JD (U) 10 (Bagoha, Maharajganj, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Jhanjhapur, Balia, Saharsa, Banka, Khagoria, Nalanda) BJP ALLY
BJP 6 (Shashar, Madhubani, Deurbhanga, Araria, Patna, Nawada)
LJP 3 (Hajipur, Rosera, Purnea) CONGRESS ALLY
INC 2 (Begusarai, Aurangabad)
NCP 1 (Katihar) CONGRESS ALLY
CPM 1 (Bhagalpur) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
JD (U) 18
BJP 12
RJD 6
INC 2
CPM 1
ind 1

Jharkhand
BJP 9
INC 4 (Rajmahal, Kodarma, Giridh, Lohardaga)
JMM 1 (Dumka) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 11
INC 2
RJD 1

West Bengal
CPM 24 (1999 result plus Krishnagar, Nabadwip, Contai)
TC 5 (minus Nabadwip, Contai, Calcutta NW) BJP ALLY
CPI 3 (unchanged)
RSP 3 (unchanged) COMMIE ALLY
INC 3 (unchanged)
FB 2 (unchanged) COMMIE ALLY
BJP 1 (minus Krishnagar)
ind 1 (Calcutta NW) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
CPM 21
TC 8
CPI 3
RSP 3
INC 3
BJP 2
FB 2

to be continued

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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #71 on: April 26, 2004, 12:31:45 AM »

Sikkim
SDF 1 (unchanged, BJP ALLY)

Assam
INC 5 (Silchar, Barpeta, Kaliabor, Jorhat, Dibrugarh)
BJP 4 (Karimganj, Dhubri, Gauhati, Nowgong)
AGP 3 (Mangaldori, Tezpur, Lakhimpur) THIRD PARTY
CPI-ML 1 (Autonomous District) THIRD PARTY
ind 1 (Kokrajhar) BJP ALLY

1999 result
INC 10
BJP 2
CPI-ML 1
ind 1 REAL INDEPENDENT

Arunachal Pradesh
INC 1 (East)
AC 1 (West) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
INC 2

Nagaland
INC 1 (unchanged)

Manipur
BJP 1 (Inner)
NCP 1 (Outer)

1999 result
MSCP 1 BJP ALLY
NCP 1 THIRD PARTY

Mizoram
MNF 1 (BJP ALLY) 1999: ind 1 (BJP ALLY)

Tripura
CPM 2 (unchanged)

Meghalaya
INC 1 (Shillong)
TC 1 (Tura)

1999 result
INC 1
NCP 1

Maharashtra
INC 17 (1999 plus Kolaba, Mumbai S, Mumbai NE, Dhule, Buldhana, Ramtek, Aurangabad, Kopergaon)
NCP 11 (1999 plus Nashik, Bheed, Osmanabad, Ahmednagar)
BJP 9 (1999 minus Mumbai S, Mumbai NE, Dhule, Bheed, Ahmednagar; plus Akola)
SHS 9 (1999 minus Buldhana, Ramtek, Aurangabad, Kopergaon, Nashik, Osmanabad)
JD (S) 1 (Malegaon) THIRD PARTY
ind 1 (Pandharpur) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 results
SHS 15
BJP 13
INC 9
NCP 7
PWPI 1 THIRD PARTY
BBM 1 THIRD PARTY
JD (S) 1
ind 1 TRUE INDEPENDENT

Goa
BJP 1 (North)
INC 1 (South)

1999 result
BJP 2

Karnataka
INC 13  (Raichur, Bellary, Tumkur, Chikballapur, Kolar, Bangalore N, Bangalore S, Chamarajnagar, Mangalore, Udupi, Hassan, Kanara, Bagalkot)
BJP 12 (Bidar, Gulbarga, Koppal, Davangere, Mysore, Chikmagalur, Shimoga, Dharwad S, Dharwad N, Belgaum, Chikkodi, Bijapur)
JD (S) 2 (Kanakapura, Mandya)
JD (U) 1 (Chitradurga)

1999 result
INC 18
BJP 7
JD (U) 3

to be continued
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
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« Reply #72 on: April 26, 2004, 12:52:00 AM »

Kerala
INC 11 (1999 plus Cannanore, Ottapalam, Kottayam, Idukki, Chirayinkil; minus Ernakulam, Trivandrum)
CPM 4 (1999 minus see above, except Idukki)
MUL 2 (Manjeri, Ponnani) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 1 (Trivandrum)
IFDP 1 (Muvattupuzha) BJP ALLY
ind 1 (Ernakulam) COMMIE ALLY

1999 result
INC 8
CPM 8
MUL 2
KC (J) 1 COMMIE ALLY
KC (M) 1 INC ALLY

Lakshadweep
INC 1 (unchanged)

Andaman & Nicobar Islands
BJP 1 (unchanged)

Pondicherry
PMK 1 (CONGRESS ALLY)
1999: Congress 1

Tamil Nadu
DMK 15 (Madras N, Madras C, Madras S, Sribamapudar, Tirupattur, Tinelivanam, Cuddalore, Krishnagiri, Karur, Perambaluvar, Nagapattinam, Thanjavur, Pudukkottai, Ramanathapuram, Tiruchendur) CONGRESS ALLY
AIADMK 11 (Arakkonam, Vellore, Rasipuram, Salem, Tiruchengode, Gobichettipalayam, Palani, Dindigul, Periyakulam, Tirucchirapalli, Tirunelveli) BJP ALLY
BJP 3 (Dharmapuri, Nilgiris, Nagercoil)
MDMK 3 (Vandavasi, Pollachi, Sivakasi) CONGRESS ALLY
INC 2 (Mayiladuturai, Sivaganga)
PMK 2 (Chengalpattu, Chidambaram)
PT 1 (Tenkasi) CONGRESS ALLY
CPM 1 (Madurai)
CPI 1 (Coimbatore)

1999 result
DMK 11 BJP ALLY
AIADMK 10 CONGRESS ALLY
PMK 5 BJP ALLY
MDMK 5 BJP ALLY
BJP 4
INC 2
CPM 1
MGRADMK 1 THIRD PARTY

Andhra Pradesh
INC 17 (1999 plus Parvathipuram, Eluru, Guntur, Ongole, Nellore, Tirupathi, Chitoor, Anantapur, Kurnool, Mahabubnagar, Nizamabad, Peddapatti)
TDP 15 BJP ALLY
TRS 4 (Nagarkurnool, Medak, Karimnagar, Warangal) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 3 (Rajahmundry, Narasapur, Sikanderabad)
CPM 1 (Bhadrachalam)
CPI 1 (Nalgonda)
AIMIM 1 (Hyderabad) THIRD PARTY

1999
TDP 29
BJP 7
INC 5
AIMIM 1

NATIONAL TOTAL
NDA 244
of which BJP 173, TDP 15, JD (U) 11, AIADMK 11, BJD 10, SHS 9, TC 6, SAD 5, SDF 1, MNF 1, IFDP 1, ind 1

CONGRESS AND ALLIES 191
of which INC 125, RJD 17, DMK 15, NCP 13, TRS 4, LJP 3, PMK 3, MDMK 3, PDP 2, MUL 2, PT 1, AC 1, ind 2

OTHERS 108
of which SP 42, CPM 33, BSP 6, CPI 5, JD (S) 3, RLD 3, AGP 3, RSP 3, FB 2, JK NC 1, SAD (M) 1, INLD 1, SJP 1, JMM 1, CPI-ML 1, AIMIM 1, ind 1
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #73 on: April 26, 2004, 03:54:20 AM »

Excellent! Smiley
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dunn
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« Reply #74 on: April 26, 2004, 04:09:58 AM »

Good work Lewis
Now we want a map Smiley
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