Gallup Party ID by State
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Author Topic: Gallup Party ID by State  (Read 6092 times)
DariusNJ
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« on: August 03, 2009, 05:32:23 PM »

An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six months of 2009 finds Massachusetts to be the most Democratic state in the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are the most Republican states, as they were in 2008. Only four states show a sizeable Republican advantage in party identification, the same number as in 2008. That compares to 29 states plus the District of Columbia with sizeable Democratic advantages, also unchanged from last year.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/Political-Party-Affiliation-States-Blue-Red-Far.aspx
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Rowan
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2009, 05:35:57 PM »

They usually have bigger gaps than other polling outfits. The important thing to look at were which states switched categories compared to last year.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2009, 06:05:58 PM »

Amazing how the country is so Democratic in it's registration, yet the Democratic Party is so split ideologically (and geographically) that it's essentially two parties.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2009, 06:08:34 PM »

Amazing how the country is so Democratic in it's registration, yet the Democratic Party is so split ideologically (and geographically) that it's essentially two parties.


I think it's because the GOP is more organized and more  strict about it's platform. Thus less democrat-voting GOPhers and less Liberal GOPhers.
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2009, 06:25:14 PM »



I think this is Gallup's second poll like this this year. According to the first poll, the Democrats have 'gained' AZ, NE and KS. The Republicans have gained only MS.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2009, 07:33:04 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2009, 01:13:11 PM by Foamy the Weasel »

Hmmm...well Obama caused a ruckus on the North Plains this year and perhaps there are still people in the South that will always be D because of the Civil War (and a lot of those people moved into adjacent states)...and now they have the reasoning that they can Limbaugh-ize the Democratic Primaries by having really conservative "democrats" primary-ing for the person they think it is easiest campaign against in the generals. Outside of the south and general area, I think these numbers are more or less pretty accurate.

Though, it would be cool if we could instigate the formation of an National Democratic party that would give a more accurate view of what is really going on.

I could even see an electoral college like this-



but it is not going to happen because everyone would have to give a lot of gravy up for just a more honest system....and it would be a nightmare to change the law for this to even be a possibility.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2009, 08:07:56 AM »

That's probably because old dixiecrats still consider themselves as democrats even if they solidly vote republican.
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« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2009, 10:10:38 AM »

That's probably because old dixiecrats still consider themselves as democrats even if they solidly vote republican.

Republican federally. Less so locally, just look at a map of the AL state legislature.
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nclib
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« Reply #8 on: August 04, 2009, 05:43:04 PM »

gap between Obama margin and registration margin:



red = positive
blue = negative
green = within 1%

Highest

DC   20.92
HI   16.26
DE   13.98
VT   9.01
NV   5.49
CA   2.03
WI   1.9
NY   1.86
RI   0.81
CO   -0.05

Lowest

SD   -14.41
NE   -14.93
AL   -15.58
KS   -16.93
TN   -23.06
LA   -23.63
KY   -32.22
WV   -33.09
AR   -34.85
OK   -36.29
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2009, 06:44:27 PM »

gap between Obama margin and registration margin:





That's actually a pretty useful map for showing where Obama was popular. Although DE was more favorable because of Biden on the ticket, I guess.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2009, 05:43:02 AM »

gap between Obama margin and registration margin:



red = positive
blue = negative
green = within 1%

Highest

DC   20.92
HI   16.26
DE   13.98
VT   9.01
NV   5.49
CA   2.03
WI   1.9
NY   1.86
RI   0.81
CO   -0.05

Lowest

SD   -14.41
NE   -14.93
AL   -15.58
KS   -16.93
TN   -23.06
LA   -23.63
KY   -32.22
WV   -33.09
AR   -34.85
OK   -36.29

I wonder why Obama did so "bad" in the West, in the Midwest, and almost everywhere outside the South.


Hmmm...well Obama caused a ruckus on the North Plains this year and perhaps there are still people in the South that will always be D because of the Civil War (and a lot of those people moved into adjacent states)...and now they have the reasoning that they can Limbaugh-ize the Democratic Primaries by having really conservative "democrats" primary-ing for the person they think it is easiest campaign against in the generals. Outside of the south and general area, I think these numbers are more or less pretty accurate.

Though, it would be cool if we could instigate the formation of an National Democratic party that would give a more accurate view of what is really going on.

I could even see an electoral college like this-

[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=0&ev_p=1&AL=3;9;6&AK=2;3;5&AZ=1;10;5&AR=3;6;5&CA=1;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=1;7;6&DE=1;3;6&DC=1;3;9&FL=1;27;5&GA=3;15;5&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;6&IL=1;21;6&IN=1;11;4&IA=1;7;5&KS=3;6;5&KY=3;8;5&LA=3;9;5&MD=1;10;6&MA=1;12;6&MI=1;17;5&MN=1;10;5&MS=3;6;5&MO=3;11;4&MT=1;3;4&NV=1;5;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;15;5&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;31;6&NC=3;15;4&ND=1;3;5&OH=1;20;5&OK=3;7;6&OR=1;7;5&PA=1;21;5&RI=1;4;6&SC=3;8;5&SD=1;3;5&TN=3;11;5&TX=3;34;5&UT=2;5;6&VT=1;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=1;11;5&WV=3;5;5&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;6&ME=1;2;5&ME1=1;1;6&ME2=1;1;5&NE=3;2;5&NE1=3;

but it is not going to happen because everyone would have to give a lot of gravy up for just a more honest system....and it would be a nightmare to change the law for this to even be a possibility.

-----------------

You might want to fix this post, so this thread can be much easier to read for everyone. 
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Husker
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2009, 01:01:55 AM »

That poll doesn't come close to matching voter registration in Nebraska, where democrats are still at least 10-15 percentage points behind republicans. I'm guessing other states are similar in this regard...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2009, 11:44:42 AM »
« Edited: August 08, 2009, 04:57:43 PM by pbrower2a »

Democratic ID



Red: Absolute Democratic majority
Orange: Democratic plurality under 50%, margin greater than 5%
White:  Democratic plurality, margin less than 5%
Green: Exact tie
Pale Blue: Republican plurality short of a majority

GOP Identity



Darkest shade: GOP majority in ID (maximum 53% in Utah).
White: DC gives about 12% ID for the GOP.
 
Shades increase from pale blue for 26% (Massachusetts) to 53% (Utah).


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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2009, 05:59:30 PM »

Notice New Hampshire tied with Vermont. It is not as liberal because independents still lean right, at least one economic issues, but the real thing is not the size of the democratic bloc but its cohesiveness.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2009, 10:02:00 AM »

Notice New Hampshire tied with Vermont. It is not as liberal because independents still lean right, at least one economic issues, but the real thing is not the size of the democratic bloc but its cohesiveness.

Vermont: 56\29
New Hampshire: 53\34
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