2010 Senate Election in Arizona

[Badger]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

That's awfully optimistic considering the way congressional seats in AZ have been quickly flipping R to D. I won't outright dismiss your assertion that AZ hispanics are conservative (3rd+ generation hispanics voting GOP like in Texas?) but the continued rapid growth of hispanics into AZ is a very negative demographic trend for the GOP there, as are the growing retirement communities--not as heavily Jewish northern democrats in their voting as say south Florida, but certainly enough to make AZ increasingly competitive.

BTW: If you want to explain 1996 as Clinton being "as conservative and candidate as Dole" I believe you will be very disappointed with future elections results in the Canyon State.

[Badger]

God, I hate the stupid "conservatives are leaving California" meme. It's almost as dumb as the "Masshole liberals are invading New Hampshire!" one. If people are leaving California, it's not because it's not conservative enough for them, it's cause the state is basically hanging on a thread and the state government is doing sh**t about it. And why would they leave one state with a sh**tty housing market to a state with a crappier one?

True dat. VERY few people are leaving their family, friends and neighborhoods to escape the entire state of Cali for being too liberal. Among those tiny few one of the big reasons someone would be that motivated to leave by conservatism is white flight from the reapid growth of Hispanics. AZ accordingly ain't gonna be on their short list of places to move.

[Badger]

That's awfully optimistic considering the way congressional seats in AZ have been quickly flipping R to D. I won't outright dismiss your assertion that AZ hispanics are conservative (3rd+ generation hispanics voting GOP like in Texas?) but the continued rapid growth of hispanics into AZ is a very negative demographic trend for the GOP there, as are the growing retirement communities--not as heavily Jewish northern democrats in their voting as say south Florida, but certainly enough to make AZ increasingly competitive.

BTW: If you want to explain 1996 as Clinton being "as conservative and candidate as Dole" I believe you will be very disappointed with future elections results in the Canyon State.

Clinton ran as a conservative to win re-election and campaigned on welfare reform and a whole bevy of things that the republican congress did.  Dole campaigned as a moderate (bipartisanship) and lost - just like all of the moderates do from our party in presidential elections, unless they campaign as conservatives (Bush 1's first term & Reagan coattails, Bush 2s first & second term). Dole also had a terrible campaign organization - look at our maps here.  The major population center (filled with just as many hispanics as whites) Maricopa county is like our version of Los Angeles County.  A democrat has to practically break even there, run up the Pima county and Tucson margins to even win the state.  That's not easy to do at all.

I don't know how old you are, but I have to ask how well you remember the 96 election. The one you're talking about didn't occur. Yes, I'm quite familiar with Clinton's triangulation strategy. But the right-wing invective on talk radio and the news and the same kind of charges of "socialism" and that crap were just as pr evelent as in the last election. Trust me: NO ONE at the time had any trouble distinguishing between Clinton and Dole as to whom was more liberal and who was more conservative.

Just curious: You claim Obama still would've lost AZ even if McCain wasn't from there. Surely you concede it would've at least been closer? In your opinion what would've the result been in AZ without the favorite son factor? FWIW I think the result would ranged anywhere from Indianaish to Missouriish.

[Badger]

Badger, its likely (I wont concede), had McCain not been on the ticket Arizona would have been closer - say like +3-5 for the Republican ticket.  There were other candidates (Romney for example) who had strong mormon support - and Chandler and Mesa, two of our biggest cities have the second biggest mormon population in the country.

Have you ever been to Arizona before?  Lived here?  I don't think you have.  I have been to Ohio many times before and I don't go around making up crazy trends going on in Ohio.  I don't say that there is this massive conservative movement going on there.  Why? Because I don't know the state.  I have lived here for 12 years, studied its politics for just about as long, know every major city, sector and how they vote.  Your assumption that AZ is just going liberal is based on how its such a cool place to live and how the west is so cool and because of NV, CO and NM.  I know that type.  It's the type that says well if its a pretty state it has to go liberal, that there has to be this wave of "open-minded" liberals just waiting at the doorstep to change the state to its "rightful" liberal heritage.  You aren't focusing on whats going on on the ground, migration patterns or the fact that democrats hardly win here at all (WAVE elections or incompetent candidates).  Nor do you look at how our propositions come out or the fact that we have republicans holding office in a vast majority of elected positions.

Like I alluded to before, Tucson would have to surpass Phoenix in population (something that will never happen) before this state ever starts becoming a true swing state.

Only went there once for a week in February last year. Very pleasant. That hardly makes me an expert, of course, but your argument fails to dissuade me that AZ isn't trending Dem, albeit slower than some other western states like Nevada.

Before we get too worked up about "forcasting wild trends", please note that my prediction of a +1 to -1 R advantage without McCain isn't too far off from your own +3 to +5 R prediction. I don't know this "AZ is turning blue because the west is a cool place too live" argument you speak of, but if you'll reread my post a bit closer you'll see that I made no such claim.

Relax dude. I'm not claiming AZ is a purple state like CO, or NV---yet. But your "strongly conservative" state has undeniably been hemorrhaging Republicans in its congressional delegation the last 3 years, (and all 3 Dems elected since then winning handily this time around). More importantly, you fail to address why the very heavy influx of Latinos into AZ isn't shifting AZ blue to the point where it will be a bona fide swing state within 10 years, and is certainly at least reachable for Obama in 2012.

[Badger]

Badger, its likely (I wont concede), had McCain not been on the ticket Arizona would have been closer - say like +3-5 for the Republican ticket.  There were other candidates (Romney for example) who had strong mormon support - and Chandler and Mesa, two of our biggest cities have the second biggest mormon population in the country.

Have you ever been to Arizona before?  Lived here?  I don't think you have.  I have been to Ohio many times before and I don't go around making up crazy trends going on in Ohio.  I don't say that there is this massive conservative movement going on there.  Why? Because I don't know the state.  I have lived here for 12 years, studied its politics for just about as long, know every major city, sector and how they vote.  Your assumption that AZ is just going liberal is based on how its such a cool place to live and how the west is so cool and because of NV, CO and NM.  I know that type.  It's the type that says well if its a pretty state it has to go liberal, that there has to be this wave of "open-minded" liberals just waiting at the doorstep to change the state to its "rightful" liberal heritage.  You aren't focusing on whats going on on the ground, migration patterns or the fact that democrats hardly win here at all (WAVE elections or incompetent candidates).  Nor do you look at how our propositions come out or the fact that we have republicans holding office in a vast majority of elected positions.

Like I alluded to before, Tucson would have to surpass Phoenix in population (something that will never happen) before this state ever starts becoming a true swing state.

Only went there once for a week in February last year. Very pleasant. That hardly makes me an expert, of course, but your argument fails to dissuade me that AZ isn't trending Dem, albeit slower than some other western states like Nevada.

Before we get too worked up about "forcasting wild trends", please note that my prediction of a +1 to -1 R advantage without McCain isn't too far off from your own +3 to +5 R prediction. I don't know this "AZ is turning blue because the west is a cool place too live" argument you speak of, but if you'll reread my post a bit closer you'll see that I made no such claim.

Relax dude. I'm not claiming AZ is a purple state like CO, or NV---yet. But your "strongly conservative" state has undeniably been hemorrhaging Republicans in its congressional delegation the last 3 years, (and all 3 Dems elected since then winning handily this time around). More importantly, you fail to address why the very heavy influx of Latinos into AZ isn't shifting AZ blue to the point where it will be a bona fide swing state within 10 years, and is certainly at least reachable for Obama in 2012.

Hey sorry there, I was a little sharp.  I'm just taking cues from some of my liberal friends who seriously have that "Arizona is this superior state and should be liberal mindset".  I shouldn't apply it to all.  The influx of Latinos is primarily illegal and unless there is amnesty, which I very well believe there could be soon - the state won't turn.  The point I make about the congressional delegation is that these races are primarily flukes.  Both 2006 and 2008 were Wave election years (incumbents in 2008 also had extremely weak challengers) and I mentioned the scandal taint in two of the races.  There is only one congressional district of those particular three where the influx of latinos really come into play, and thats Giffords, and Giffords' constituents are not happy with her because of how much she votes in line with Pelosi.  I mentioned before that AZ has also had an influx of conservative business-minded Californians - this balances the amount of legal Latinos coming into the state.  Now, we should be gaining 1 or 2 congressional seats once this new census comes around.  Our congressional seats are districted by an independent commission (2 dems, 2 reps, 1 indy i think).  Now, if those seats fall to democrats as soon as they are put in, I'll lean more towards your theory.

Obama himself will have trouble winning this state the next time around unless we nominate like Jindal or something (Im a Palin supporter, and do not think she is stupid, though the majority of the forum seems to).  I know a lot of people here who voted for him and have experienced buyer's remorse.  I know thats anecdotal, but that's whats going on.  The only way I think he wins is if he receives a landslide in 2012 and who knows whats going to happen with that - right now, it isn't looking so hot from all the people he soured in the healthcare debate.  Once you go to strongly disapprove, it's very difficult to get those voters back.

No prob, man.

The high number of immigrants coming to AZ are undoubtedly illegal and can't vote. But that's the status for most of the southwest for 30+ years, and like it ofr not their kids born here are citizens who can and will vote. Again, bad trends for the AZ GOP as far as I can see.; If you're hoping on conservative refugees from Cali to counteract that wave, well, good luck.

[Badger]

Badger, its likely (I wont concede), had McCain not been on the ticket Arizona would have been closer - say like +3-5 for the Republican ticket.  There were other candidates (Romney for example) who had strong mormon support - and Chandler and Mesa, two of our biggest cities have the second biggest mormon population in the country.

Have you ever been to Arizona before?  Lived here?  I don't think you have.  I have been to Ohio many times before and I don't go around making up crazy trends going on in Ohio.  I don't say that there is this massive conservative movement going on there.  Why? Because I don't know the state.  I have lived here for 12 years, studied its politics for just about as long, know every major city, sector and how they vote.  Your assumption that AZ is just going liberal is based on how its such a cool place to live and how the west is so cool and because of NV, CO and NM.  I know that type.  It's the type that says well if its a pretty state it has to go liberal, that there has to be this wave of "open-minded" liberals just waiting at the doorstep to change the state to its "rightful" liberal heritage.  You aren't focusing on whats going on on the ground, migration patterns or the fact that democrats hardly win here at all (WAVE elections or incompetent candidates).  Nor do you look at how our propositions come out or the fact that we have republicans holding office in a vast majority of elected positions.

Like I alluded to before, Tucson would have to surpass Phoenix in population (something that will never happen) before this state ever starts becoming a true swing state.

Only went there once for a week in February last year. Very pleasant. That hardly makes me an expert, of course, but your argument fails to dissuade me that AZ isn't trending Dem, albeit slower than some other western states like Nevada.

Before we get too worked up about "forcasting wild trends", please note that my prediction of a +1 to -1 R advantage without McCain isn't too far off from your own +3 to +5 R prediction. I don't know this "AZ is turning blue because the west is a cool place too live" argument you speak of, but if you'll reread my post a bit closer you'll see that I made no such claim.

Relax dude. I'm not claiming AZ is a purple state like CO, or NV---yet. But your "strongly conservative" state has undeniably been hemorrhaging Republicans in its congressional delegation the last 3 years, (and all 3 Dems elected since then winning handily this time around). More importantly, you fail to address why the very heavy influx of Latinos into AZ isn't shifting AZ blue to the point where it will be a bona fide swing state within 10 years, and is certainly at least reachable for Obama in 2012.

Hey sorry there, I was a little sharp.  I'm just taking cues from some of my liberal friends who seriously have that "Arizona is this superior state and should be liberal mindset".  I shouldn't apply it to all.  The influx of Latinos is primarily illegal and unless there is amnesty, which I very well believe there could be soon - the state won't turn.  The point I make about the congressional delegation is that these races are primarily flukes.  Both 2006 and 2008 were Wave election years (incumbents in 2008 also had extremely weak challengers) and I mentioned the scandal taint in two of the races.  There is only one congressional district of those particular three where the influx of latinos really come into play, and thats Giffords, and Giffords' constituents are not happy with her because of how much she votes in line with Pelosi.  I mentioned before that AZ has also had an influx of conservative business-minded Californians - this balances the amount of legal Latinos coming into the state.  Now, we should be gaining 1 or 2 congressional seats once this new census comes around.  Our congressional seats are districted by an independent commission (2 dems, 2 reps, 1 indy i think).  Now, if those seats fall to democrats as soon as they are put in, I'll lean more towards your theory.

Obama himself will have trouble winning this state the next time around unless we nominate like Jindal or something (Im a Palin supporter, and do not think she is stupid, though the majority of the forum seems to).  I know a lot of people here who voted for him and have experienced buyer's remorse.  I know thats anecdotal, but that's whats going on.  The only way I think he wins is if he receives a landslide in 2012 and who knows whats going to happen with that - right now, it isn't looking so hot from all the people he soured in the healthcare debate.  Once you go to strongly disapprove, it's very difficult to get those voters back.

No prob, man.

The high number of immigrants coming to AZ are undoubtedly illegal and can't vote. But that's the status for most of the southwest for 30+ years, and like it or not their kids born here are citizens who can and will vote. Again, bad trends for the AZ GOP as far as I can see.; If you're hoping on conservative refugees from Cali to counteract that wave, well, good luck.

The difficulty with that analysis is that you and others expect hispanics to be a monolithic voting bloc for the the democratic party like the blacks.  Hispanics are not as monolithic, and their voting patterns will rest upon two things (amnesty is not one):

1)perception of increased level of status in society
2)the party that adequately represents them with candidates who are hispanic

No party can claim item 1 right now and I will say that item 2 is favoring democrats right now.  It all depends on the future.

Hispanics don't need to be as monolithicly Democratic in their voting as say African-Americans (or Native Americans, or even Jewish Americans for that matter) for this to spell big trouble for the AZ GOP. All we need is close to the trend of voting about 2-1 Democratic as in the last election, and AZ will turn increasingly purple. It was closer to 60/40 in AZ last time, but as the minority voting map recently posted in another thread shows this was an aberration of relatively high GOP minority vote in AZ and Alaska for obvious home state reasons. Even a regular variance between 2-1 and 60/40 is good news for southwestern Democrats.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#AZP00p1

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1

Simply put AZmagic, if the last 20 years are any guide I wouldn't count on the GOP--especially in AZ with a base that seems rabidly anti-"amnesty" (I hate that misleading term, but that's another debate) and sympathetic to the radical minuteman groups--making an effective outreach to hispanic voters to avoid the inevitable coming demographic changes.