God, I hate the stupid "conservatives are leaving California" meme. It's almost as dumb as the "Masshole liberals are invading New Hampshire!" one. If people are leaving California, it's not because it's not conservative enough for them, it's cause the state is basically hanging on a thread and the state government is doing sh**t about it. And why would they leave one state with a sh**tty housing market to a state with a crappier one?
Badger, its likely (I wont concede), had McCain not been on the ticket Arizona would have been closer - say like +3-5 for the Republican ticket. There were other candidates (Romney for example) who had strong mormon support - and Chandler and Mesa, two of our biggest cities have the second biggest mormon population in the country.
Have you ever been to Arizona before? Lived here? I don't think you have. I have been to Ohio many times before and I don't go around making up crazy trends going on in Ohio. I don't say that there is this massive conservative movement going on there. Why? Because I don't know the state. I have lived here for 12 years, studied its politics for just about as long, know every major city, sector and how they vote. Your assumption that AZ is just going liberal is based on how its such a cool place to live and how the west is so cool and because of NV, CO and NM. I know that type. It's the type that says well if its a pretty state it has to go liberal, that there has to be this wave of "open-minded" liberals just waiting at the doorstep to change the state to its "rightful" liberal heritage. You aren't focusing on whats going on on the ground, migration patterns or the fact that democrats hardly win here at all (WAVE elections or incompetent candidates). Nor do you look at how our propositions come out or the fact that we have republicans holding office in a vast majority of elected positions.
Like I alluded to before, Tucson would have to surpass Phoenix in population (something that will never happen) before this state ever starts becoming a true swing state.
All is fine, but I am curious on the Gay Marriage Amendment. Not necessarily the first one that lost, but even the second one that one which passed by a margin(56%) more consistent with Wisconsin(57%) and Oregon(57%) than with a state like Ohio(62%). It could be that its polarized, but think there is at least libertarian element if not a socially liberal one.
